AM Comments September 19, 2025
Good morning. Grain prices are steady to higher to start Friday, as ag traders await any news from the expected phone call this morning between the U.S. and China. The main topic will be TikTok, but any signals of more general trade discussions will be closely watched. Corn, beans, and wheat have all trade in relatively tight ranges this week. If current prices hold, corn and beans would be looking at small weekly losses, with Chicago wheat trying to hold on to a slight weekly gain. Corn is currently up 1 to 2 cents with beans up 3 to 4 cents. Wheat is flat. Equity futures are slightly higher and crude is slightly lower. The dollar index is working on a 3rd straight day of gains. The center of the Midwest is expected to see rain next week, which could slow harvest progress.
Today's Reports: Commitment of Traders; Cattle on Feed
- December corn has closely followed the 100-day moving average in recent sessions. That line crosses near $4.26 1/4 today. The contract officially closed below the line yesterday, but is back to trading near it this morning. A gap from July 7th would close on a trade up to $4.32 3/4. November soybeans are having a similar experience, but with the 20-day moving average. It crosses at $10.41 1/4 today.
- President Trump and Xi are expected to speak via phone at 8 a.m. central time this morning. The main topic of conversation is expected to be finalizing a path for the U.S. to own the U.S. assets of TikTok. Questions remain on if China will still retain some rights to the U.S. version and what will happen to the popular recommendation algorithm that sits inside TikTok. It is also curious if Congress will approve this expected deal. There are estimated to be up to 170 million users of TikTok in the U.S. The expectation that the two will discuss trade is low, but the grain markets will be interested in any hints that a larger trade deal is being discussed and if a face-to-face meeting in late October is still possible.
- Barge freight values have been steady over the last few days, but are still trading at elevated levels. Strong export demand for corn means more boats for transporting grain, and harvest has been active in the Delta. Harvest is moving north but space is still largely empty there, so the push for additional barges has not been seen yet. Lower water is a concern again. Dredging along the river has started south of Cairo and there have already been reports of tows running aground. Next week's rains, if receive, could offer some help but more rain will be needed.
- The cattle on feed report will be released at 2 p.m. central time this afternoon. Expectations are for on-feed numbers to be 99.1% of a year ago. Placements are expected to be down 9% from last year. Marketings are seen at 87% of a year ago.
- Cooler air is expected to move through the Midwest starting this weekend. Rain chances are improving with nearly daily chances of rain through next week. Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana are now showing 1 to 3 inch potential over the next week. This will be well received in a variety of ways: soybean moisture, river levels, and field safety.
- According to Bloomberg, the White House is weighing alternative candidates for the next chair of the CFTC as Brian Quintenz's confirmation process has stalled. It is being reported that government officials are looking for a strong focus on cryptocurrency policy to be the driver of the new chair. While normally a five-person commission leads the CFTC, there is only one person currently serving after a number of resignations in the last few months.
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated that corn planting is estimated to be 6.2% complete. The group expects corn planting in ARG to total 7.8 mln. hectares, up 700K from last year. This would be the 2nd largest corn acreage in the country's history.
- Conab reported its first look at the new crop season for Brazil production. They estimated soybean production at 177.7 MMT, a new record. They estimated soybean acreage to be up 3.7% from last year. Corn production is expected to be down 1% at 138.3 MMT. Corn acreage will be up 3.5%, but they expect corn yields to be down from this last year's strong yields.
- China announced the approval of 2 additional GMO soybean varieties and 96 corn varieties.