Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• December Corn (CZ): $4.23 3/4, down 3 cents
• March Corn (CH): $4.41 1/2, down 3 cents
• December/March Spread (CZ/CH): -17 3/4, unchanged

? Market Headlines:

• The USDA's daily export sales reporting system this morning showed private exporters sold 110,000 MTs of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2025/26 marketing year.

• This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending September 11th showed corn sales in the week at 1.232 MMTs, which was near the middle of trade expectations. Featured buyers in the week were Mexico (419,200 MTs), South Korea (201,000 MTs), Japan (194,500 MTs), and Spain (141,500 MTs); unknown destinations assigned out/canceled/rolled 91,700 MTs.

• Brazil's CONAB this morning estimated the country's 2025/26 corn production at 138.28 MMTs, which would be down from the 139.7 MMTs seen this year. Planted area is seen 22.63 million hectares vs 21.86 last year, while exports are seen up 6.5 MMTs at 46.5 MMTs and ending stocks are seen down slightly on the year at 11.67 MMTs.

• This morning's weekly drought monitor update showed 25% of the US corn area in D1-D4 drought conditions, up from 13% last week and at the highest level since April.

Summary:

Corn futures closed lower for a second consecutive day on Thursday, as another week of strong export demand was unable to lift values out of the red throughout the day and into the close. We have little new to report today in terms of crops or yields that is different from what we mentioned yesterday and other days this week, and there just continues to simply not be a lot of marketing-moving news otherwise. The trade is aware of the current export pace and the pending phone conversation with China will likely have little if any impact on corn fundamentals, with China already expected to not take hardly any of the crop from the US or anywhere else this year in an effort to protect its farmers. As focus begins to shift back south over the course of the next couple months, a fundamental spark will be needed to push values very far in either direction.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• November Soybeans (SX): $10.37 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents
• January Soybeans (SF): $10.56 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents
• October Soybean Meal (MV): $283.00, down 90 cents/ton
• October Soybean Oil (LV): 50.57, down 0.67 cents/lb
• November/January Spread (SX/SF): -19, up 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending September 11th showed soybean sales in the week at 923k MTs, which was within trade expectations. Featured buyers in the week were Egypt (228,400 MTs), Mexico (195,400 MTs), and Spain (179,400 MTs); unknown destinations in the week assigned out/rolled/canceled 148,500 MTs.

• In the products, old crop meal sales were in expectations at 31k MTs while new crop was also in trade expectations at 151k tons. Old crop bean oil sales were above expectations at 22k tons, while there were 0 new crop sales, which was below expectations.

• Brazil's CONAB on Thursday, in their first estimates for the 2025/26 crop year, said they see the country's soybean production at 177.67 MMTs, which would be up from this year's 171.47. Planted area is seen increasing from 47.35 mil hectares last year to 49.08 mil HAs this year, while exports are seen increasing from 106.7 MMTs to 112.1 MMTs and ending stocks are seen increasing from 10.3 MMTs to 13.0 MMTs.

• This morning's weekly drought monitor update showed 36% of the US soybean area in D1-D4 drought conditions, which is up from 22% last week and at the highest level since last March.

Summary:

It was a hurry up and wait day on Thursday in the soy complex, as values fell to new lows for the week ahead of a much anticipated US-China phone call that is set to take place tomorrow morning. We've talked about it all week (and for several months now since Trump took office) but China is not the same position today as they were in 2018 when Trump launched his first trade war; between their human population and their hog population, they don't have the soy demand that they did then, and on top of that, they did nothing but invest in logistics and relationships with sellers in South America in the seven years since then. For this reason, we find it highly unlikely that a Phase One-like deal with be the outcome of this next round of talks, with recent bans on AI chip purchases from Nvidia highlighting what appears to be an ongoing gap between the two sides.

? Prices:

• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.24 1/4, down 4 cents
• March Chicago Wheat (WH): $5.42 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents
• December/March Spread (WZ/WH): -18 1/4, down 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending September 11th showed wheat sales in the week at 378k MTs, which was at the lower end of trade expectations. Featured buyers in the week were the Philippines (186,000 MTs) and Nigeria (104,300 MTs), and unknown destinations in the week assigned out/rolled/canceled 156,100 MTs. Of note, cumulative marketing year sales at just over 13 MMTs are at their highest level for this week since 2020.

• The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday, in a monthly update, said they see world wheat production in the 2025/26 season at 819 MMTs, which is up 8 MMTs from their estimate last month. The group cited better-than-expected crops in Australia, Russia and Canada as reason for the increase.

Summary:

Production estimates continued to dominate most of the wheat market headlines during the day on Thursday, as values otherwise closed lower on an ongoing lack fresh of news. Good export demand is currently being outweighed by plentiful global production, which is keeping a lid on prices.

In Other News

• Livestock markets closed higher on Thursday, led to the upside by the cattle markets:
• October live cattle: $232.37, up $1.27
• October feeder cattle: $351.72, up $2.60; inside day higher
• October lean hogs: $97.47, up 15 cents

• Outside markets finished Thursday mostly higher coming off of yesterday's interest rate cut:
• Crude oil futures: down 30-40 cents/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is up 170 points, the S&P500 index is up 40 points, and the NASDAQ is up 250 points
• US $ Index: up 40-50 points

• A private Chinese news outlet reported on Thursday that China's Ministry of Ag and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium earlier this week with the country's top big breeders to discuss measures on cutting production.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Rainfall chances for the central and eastern Corn Belt have continued to improve over the last 24 hours, with it now looking fairly likely that most of the Midwest receives some sort of measurable precip between now and next Thursday. The GFS's noon run today has the best rain chances through MO and southern IL, but locations will likely be spotty and difficult to predict.

• Temperatures will continue to be mostly above average into next week, aside from a small pocket of cooler air that will be present in the central US tomorrow and into the weekend; otherwise most of the Midwest will continue to see above average warmth.

? Extended Forecast:

• Precip forecasts into the first of October are continuing to show better rainfall potential through the Midwest, especially to the south and east, and are in similarly good agreement to what was seen yesterday. There is also good agreement on the PNW staying wet in the period.

• Extended range temperature outlooks are continuing to try and trend cooler, especially in the western US, but are keeping the east average to slightly above average this afternoon. The GFS is notably cooler than the EU model, which is keeping our confidence in either solution low.