AM Comments September 18 2025
Good morning. Chicago ag markets are mixed this morning to start Thursday trade, with the soy complex having spent most of the overnight session trading in the red, while the feed grain markets of corn and wheat have been either side of unchanged. Volume has remained on the low end most of the week this week ahead of an expected phone call between President Trump and President Xi on Friday, with nobody quite sure what to expect from the conversation. We are skeptical that any sort of ag deal is signed ahead of the weekend, but the optimism has nonetheless provided a floor for prices above last week's trading range that has continued to hold over the last three days. Politics aside, we also expect to see some pre-weekend hedge pressure show up in the markets later in the day today and probably more notably through the day tomorrow, as harvest continues to gather steam, especially where rains remain absent in the east. Corn futures this morning are unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents higher. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $2/ton and soybean oil is down 20-30 points. Outside markets are mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 220 points, and the US$ index is up 15 points; the S&P500 is up 50 points and the NASDAQ is up 270 points.
Today's Reports: Weekly Export Sales; Weekly Jobless Claims
- This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending September 11th is expected to show corn sales for the week in a range of 500k-1.9 mil MTs, soybean sales in a range of 400k-1.5 mil MTs, and wheat sales in a range of 300k-650k MTs. On average, figures for all three crops would be up from last week.
- US Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins told the Financial Times Wednesday that the Trump administration was considering plans to use tariff revenue to fund a new farm aid package as her agency and the administration continue to weigh exactly how much aid the US farmer will need by this fall. Rollins didn't go into further detail on the likelihood that this happens or a timeline for such a plan, while the USDA is already expected to shell out the second highest amount in direct payments this year since the 30's.
- Chinese trade data for August, excluding soybeans or soy products, showed the country's corn imports in the month at 40,000 tons, which is down more than 90% from August of last year; cumulative corn imports at just 880,000 tons are also down more than 90% from last year. Data also showed wheat imports in the month down 45% from last year, while fertilizer exports were notably up 26% from last year.
- Sources familiar with the matter told reporters that Russian officials had held at least two rounds of talks with the country's major grain traders in recent months in an effort to find a way to boost exports amid falling prices and a lack of farmer selling. The sources said one pf the proposals centered on transportation subsidies for grain being transported by rail, but there were not a lot of additional details given. Russian wheat exports through the first two months of the current marketing year that started in July are down nearly 40% from the year prior.
- There are reports this morning that Taiwan has signed a letter of intent to purchase 3.6 million tons of US wheat between 2026 and 2029, valued at an estimated $1.296 bil USD. Taiwan was the fifth largest US wheat market last year, with purchases totaling roughly 1.3 million tons.
- A Brazilian judge on Wednesday ruled that the moratorium on soy trading from areas that had recently been deforested in parts of the Amazon would remain in place, following a suspension by an antitrust body last month. The ruling rejects a request by farmers groups to disband the moratorium, which farmers say is an unfair agreement that keeps some out of the market.
- Comments from the Federal Reserve following yesterday's first interest rate cut since December of last year weren't overly different from those heard in recent months, but did make a point to mention that labor market concerns had increased in recent weeks and that this would likely lead to additional rate cuts between now and the end of the year. Other macro headlines for Thursday include trade meetings between the US and the UK in Britain, and continued political positioning between the US and China amid the latter's announced ban on the purchase of chips from Nvidia.
- Weather forecasts this morning are wetter for the central and eastern parts of the Corn Belt beginning next week, which is increasing our confidence in a pattern shift possibly occurring beyond this weekend. The EU model now shows rainfall totals ranging from 1-3.5" with some locally heavier amounts possible for an area from west-central KS/NE/OK east into TN/KY/OH. How this develops the next few days will be key, but the odds are seemingly increasing that rains return to the eastern Corn Belt by next week.
- Extended range precip maps have also trended wetter for the whole of the Midwest this morning, and are in better agreement today than has been seen through previous days this week. The GFS is wetter in the northern Plains and into Canada still, but the two see similarly slightly above normal precip outlooks for the Midwest and Corn Belt.