Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• December Corn (CZ): $4.26 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents
• March Corn (CH): $4.44 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents
• December/March Spread (CZ/CH): -17 3/4, down 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly ethanol report from the EIA with data for the week ending September 12th showed average daily production in the week at 1.055 mil bbls, which was down 4.5% from last week but up 0.6% from the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were seen at 22.602 mil bbls, which was down 1% from the week prior and down 5% from the same week last year.

• Corn usage in the week was estimated at 105.1 mil bu, which brings cumulative usage through the first two weeks of the marketing year to 215.3 mil bu, compared to 210.3 mil bu through the first two weeks last year.

• The second of two annual model-based crop production estimates from StatsCan on Wednesday showed Canadian corn production in 2025 at 15.5 MMTs, which compares to 15.345 MMTs last year, 15.421 MMTs in 2023, and the USDA's current 2025 estimate of 15.55 MMTs.

• AgResource Co. reported on Wednesday that interior Chinese corn prices have fallen below last year's five-year low and are at levels that produce negative margins for farmers, bringing into question whether their current new crop import forecast of 10 MMTs might be too high. China corn imports totaled just 3 MMTs in the 2024/25 year.

Summary:

Corn futures were a follower on Wednesday, as lower price action in the energy markets of crude oil and bean oil helped drive values lower on one hand, while a declining wheat market helped to add pressure in the other. We don't have a lot new to report this afternoon harvest-wise, with yields still coming in generally 10-20 bu below last year, but being highly variable. There's a pocket in northwest IA that is reporting yields that are up notably from last year, but keep in mind this area had all sorts of moisture issues from spring on last year which led to losses. Otherwise, it would seem Wednesday was a breather day for a market that just hasn't seen a lot of fresh input besides harvest activity and mostly groundless yield debate in the past few weeks.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• November Soybeans (SX): $10.43 3/4, down 6 cents
• January Soybeans (SF): $10.63, down 6 1/4 cents; inside day lower
• October Soybean Meal (MV): $283.90, down $1.90/ton; outside day lower
• October Soybean Oil (LV): 51.24, down 1.45 cents/lb
• November/January Spread (SX/SF): -19 1/4, up 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Market headlines in the soy complex for Wednesday continued to focus on China and the EPA's most recent biofuel development, though there wasn't really a lot new on either front throughout the day.

• StatsCanada said in the second of two annual crop reports on Wednesday that Canadian canola (rapeseed) production in the 2025/26 season was seen at 20.028 MMTs, which compares to 19.239 MMTs last year and 19.464 MMTs in 2023.

Summary:

Like we said at the top, focus in the soy complex for Wednesday was squarely centered on the bean oil market for a second consecutive session, as speculative and algorithm traders continued to push this market around based on the latest EPA headlines and a gradual understanding that yesterday's rally was likely taken too far, too fast based on what we learned (or didn't learn) from the afternoon announcement. Regardless of what ends up getting decided, there remains a considerable amount of time (likely months) before any sort of ruling is made final, which means prices will continue to be subject to increased headline risk in the short and medium term.

? Prices:

• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.28 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents
• March Chicago Wheat (WH): $5.46 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents
• December/March Spread (WZ/WH): -18, down 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• StatsCanada's production update this morning showed Canadian wheat production in the 2025/26 season at 36.624 MMTs, which is up from 35.939 MMTs last year and 33.414 MMTs in 2023.

Summary:

We continue to have little new to talk about in the wheat market for Wednesday, as Canadian production numbers were largely as expected and there weren't a lot of global market happenings to push prices one way or the other. There are rumblings on social media that perhaps crop sizes are possibly not as big as the market is trying to make it seem and that this could possibly be reason for the general lack of farmer selling out of both Europe and the US.

Corn

• The corn market has resumed its minor uptrend over the past week, with values having also probed into the open chart gap area from the Fourth of July holiday but being so far unable to close it. Dec futures need to trade to 4.32 3/4 to close this gap, which marks initial upside resistance this week.

• From there, the 200-day moving average is seen at 4.40 today and will likely be the next upside hurdle, with a close above here possibly leading to a retest of the 4.50-4.55 area, which marks the highs from both May and June.

• On the downside this week, support will come in first at 4.11 1/2, which is 50% retracement of the recent up move, and then below here at 4.07, which marks 62%. Should these both fail, the even $4 level remains major support, with a close below here likely leading to a retest of the current contract low at 3.92.

• RSI has flirted with overbought territory in recent days, but is still seen at neutral levels today at 58.5.

Soybeans

• Soybean futures have worked back up from the lower end of the range seen last week but have still been otherwise unable to push to new highs, as the market continues to trade broadly sideways. Resistance this week will be similar to that of recent weeks, and will be seen first at the August high of 10.62 3/4.

• Above here, the summer high at 10.74 1/4 will likely be next resistance, with the even $11 level remaining longer term resistance above there.

• To the downside this week, the market has been seeing near-by support at the 20-day moving average, which comes in at 10.42 today. Below here, the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages are all between 10.25-10.30, while 50% retracement of the August up move comes in just below here at 10.22.

• RSI this week is up from last week, but remains in neutral territory at 54.5.

In Other News

• Livestock markets saw a second consecutive day of losses on Wednesday, led to the downside by feeders:
• October live cattle: $231.10, down $2.35
• October feeder cattle: $349.12, down $5.17
• October lean hogs: $97.32, down 5 cents

• Outside markets saw mixed trade on Wednesday following the Fed's interest rate cut:
• Crude Oil Futures: down 50-60 cents/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is up 260 points, the S&P500 index is near unchanged, and the NASDAQ is down 20 points
• US $ Index: up around 30 points

• EIA also updated petroleum stocks data in this morning's weekly report:
• Crude Oil Stocks - down 9.285 mil bbls to 415.361 mil bbls
• Gasoline Stocks - down 2.347 mil bbls to 217.65 mil bbls
• Distillate Stocks - up 4.046 mil bbls to 124.684 mil bbls
• Implied gasoline demand in the week was estimated at 8.810 mil bbls/day, compared to 8.508 mil bbls last week and 8.776 mil in the same week last year.

• CNN reported on Wednesday that China's state-owned COSCO shipping company was interested in tendering for a new terminal in Brazil's Santos port, which is its largest export hub. The move highlights China's continued push to expand its global logistics footprint, especially in South America.

• The South China Morning Post reported on Wednesday that preparations for a Trump visit to China are in the "final stages" ahead of a scheduled phone call that is set to take place between he and Chinese President Xi later this week on Friday, possibly setting the stage for what would be the first visit to Beijing by a US President since 2017.

• The US Federal Reserve expectedly lowered interest rates by a quarter percentage point earlier this afternoon, marking the first instance of easing since December of last year. Comments from Powel and the rest of the Fed following the decision seemed to indicate a slowing labor market was at the center of the decision to make the cut.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• The GFS is wetter further east into next week than was seen yesterday, but is otherwise unchanged for the west in continuing to offer fairly regular precip potential over the next 7-10 days. Totals through the end of the week next week are seen in a general range of 1-3", but exact locations and totals will likely be spotty.

• A small pocket of cooler air will linger in the west-central US for 48-72 hours the next couple days before warming again into the weekend, while the rest of the Midwest and eastern US stays warmer than average into next week.

? Extended Forecast:

• There continues to be poor model agreement on the week two precip outlooks this afternoon, with the EU AI model continuing to be the wettest of the bunch for the Midwest, the GFS the driest, and the EU somewhere in between. Our lean is to the EU model, which has been the most accurate through summer.

• Extended range temperature forecasts are continuing to show cooler air slowly working into the far western US and western Canada, but are otherwise unchanged for the eastern US in continuing to show mostly above average temperatures into the end of the month.