AM Comments September 17 2025
Good morning. Back and forth we go at the CBOT as the up one day, down the next trade looks to continue into mid-week this morning. After closing higher yesterday, markets have spent the overnight session trading mostly lower to start out on Wednesday, as the unknowns surrounding a Friday phone call between Trump and Xi and the fact that we really know nothing more today than we did yesterday regarding biofuel policy and blending mandates has produced a choppy price environment this week. The EPA has opened a 45-day public comment period to try and determine the best path forward from here on reallocating refinery exemptions, which means it will, at best, be another several weeks before we could potentially hear anything else on this topic. That said, unless new details are uncovered in the legislation presented yesterday, which we don't see as likely, traders will presumably go right back to debating yields and crop sizes for today's session, with the news cycle on the margin still for now being all about harvest. Corn futures to start Wednesday are trading either side on unchanged, while soybean and Chicago wheat futures are seeing the same price action. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1.50/ton and soybean oil is in corrective mode from yesterday, down 50-60 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed, crude oil futures are down 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 40 points, and the US$ index is up 15 points; the S&P500 is near unchanged and the NASDAQ is down 10 points.
Today's Reports: EIA Weekly Ethanol Production/Energy Stocks
- This morning's weekly EIA ethanol update is expected to show average daily production in the week in a range of 1.070-1.115 mil bbls/day, while stocks in the week are seen between 22.887-23.200 mil bbls. The report will be out this morning at 9:30am central time.
- South American soy crush group ABIOVE said in a statement on Tuesday that they see Brazil's 2025 soy crush up 0.7% from a previous estimate at 58.5 MMTs; the group said they see meal production at 45.1 MMTs, while bean oil output for the year is seen at 11.7 MMTs. The group made no change to their soybean production forecast, which is seen at 170.3 MMTs.
- Weekly EU export data posted to the European Commission's website showed the bloc's wheat exports in the current marketing year at roughly 3.78 MMTs as of September 14th, which is down from about 5.73 MMTs through the same date last year. Data continues to be incomplete, with the commission noting that French export numbers are missing for the 2025/26 marketing year, which would presumably narrow the gap from last year to this year.
- The US EPA on Tuesday issued a proposal for reallocating small refinery exemptions that were ruled on last month to larger refiners, with the primary proposals being to reallocate either 50% or 100% of the exemptions; the legislation also included provisions for other percentages, and an option that would see 0% of the exemptions be reallocated, which would be a major blow to the farm industry. Following a 45-day comment period, it is expected that even more time will then be needed to finalize whatever is decided on.
- Staying on the biofuel track, a private biofuel trader in Brazil said on Tuesday that the country's ethanol production should reach more than 40 billion liters by the 2027/28 season, which compares to 36 billion liters in the 2025/26 season. The group said most of this new supply is expected to come from corn ethanol, which is expected to account for roughly 80% of the increase.
- The $ index is higher this morning in a sort of sell the rumor buy the fact the trading, with it widely expected that the US Fed will cut interest rates this afternoon for the first time since last December. Markets are also pricing two additional cuts before the end of the year in October and December, with comments from embattled Fed Chair Jerome Powell likely to be watched today for any sort of confirmation or denial of this.
- President Trump arrived in Britain on Wednesday for a second visit to discuss trade and other topics with PM Keir Starmer. Trump, before leaving on Tuesday, said "They'd like to see if they could get a little bit better deal, so we'll talk to them." The visit has already produced a new technology pact between the two sides, companies like Microsoft and Nvidia pledging $42 billion in British tech investment over the next few years.
- Thunderstorm activity began providing rainfall to the western part of the Midwest on Tuesday and looks to continue doing so through the day today and into the back half of this week; totals over the last 24 hours have ranged generally from a few tenths to an inch with some locally heavier amounts, while forecasts see an additional 1-2" for the area between now and the beginning of next week. Notable though is the ongoing dry pocket in the east, with most of IL, IN and OH still not expected to see hardly any rainfall through the weekend and into the first part of next week.
- Models are trying to then bring moisture back to this area by the middle of next week, but the best coverage and heaviest totals look to continue favoring the west part of the Corn Belt and also areas further south into OK/TX. The EU's week two precip anomaly map also trended marginally wetter overnight last night for the Central Corn Belt, which is helping to improve our confidence in a pattern shift possibly occurring by the end of the month. Nothing new temperature-wise this morning, as models continue to be in good agreement on daytime highs through the Midwest remaining mostly above average.