AM Comments September 16 2025

Posted on Sep 16 at 07:16

Good morning. CBOT ag markets are higher this morning to start the day in classic turn-around Tuesday fashion, with all three of the corn, beans and wheat having overnight trading ranges that are almost entirely to the upside so far as of this writing this morning. We once again are seeing very little to this point in terms of fresh fundamental news, with yesterday's crop progress reports continuing to show the same picture they've shown all summer and there being little new on the China rumors in the last 12+ hours. A Friday meeting between Trump and Xi likely keeps a floor fairly close by under the market the next few days, but we are cautious of a meeting happening that produces little more than a kicking of the can, as has been the case between lower-level trade delegations recently. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading 2-4 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 5-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-4 cents higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 20 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 60-70 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed also, crude oil futures are up around 30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 20 points and the US$ index is down 20-30 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points and the NASDAQ is up 50 points.

 

Today's Reports: Monthly Retail Sales; API Energy Stocks

 

  • Yesterday afternoon's weekly crop progress update from the USDA showed corn harvest at 7% complete as of Sunday the 14th, which compares to 8% as of the same day last year and the five-year average of 7%. KS is 14% behind last year, while TX is 8% behind and MO is 6% behind; on the other side, NC is 14% ahead of last year, while TN is 4% ahead and IN is 2% ahead. Conditions fell another 1% in the G/EX category this week to 67%, with PA being down 9%, NC being down 8%, and CO being down 7%.

 

  • For soybeans, harvest progress was reported at 5% complete in the first update of the year, which compares to 6% last year and the five-year average of 3%. At the state level, LA is 18% ahead of last year, while KY is 6% behind, AR and TN are each 3% behind, and IL, IN and MI are all 2% behind. Conditions in the G/EX category were down 1% here also to 63%, with LA being down 7% on the week, MI and MO down 5%, and IL, KY, and ND all down 4%.

 

  • For wheat, spring wheat harvest advanced 9% on the week to 94% and winter wheat seeding advanced 6% on the week to 11% complete; the spring wheat figures continue to be ahead of last year and average, while winter wheat planting is off to a slower start than both last year and average. To view the full report from the USDA, please click here.

 

  • Reuters reported on Monday that US meatpacker Tyson Foods had announced plans to stop using certain ingredients, including high-fructose corn syrup, in its products by the end of 2025 as part of Health Secretary RFK Jr's Make America Healthy Again campaign. It is unclear how much HFCS Tyson was using annually, as the group does not publicly disclose this information.

 

  • We touched on it briefly yesterday afternoon, but NOPA on Monday showed US soybean crush in the month of August at 189.810 mil bu, which was above trade estimates and a new record for the month; the figure was also down 3% from July and up 20% from August of last year. The group also showed soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month at an eight-month low of 1.245 bil lbs, which was down 10% from July but up just over 9% from last year. USDA will update its figures for the month on October 1st.

 

  • According to South American ag consultancy AgRural, soybean planting in Brazil for the 2025/26 season has reached just 0.12% of the expected area as of September 11th, which compares to 0.06% through the same period last year. The group also showed first crop corn planting in the country's center-south region at 17% complete, which compares to 19% last year.

 

  • The European Union's Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit (MARS) said on Monday that crop yields in Ukraine for the 2025/26 season would be variable as heat in parts of the south and eastern growing regions hindered crop development. The group sees Ukraine wheat yields at 4.16 tons/hectare vs 4.43 last year, while corn yields are seen at 7.30 t/ha vs 6.53 last year and soybean yields are seen at 2.54 t/ha compared to 2.43 last year.

 

  • Three cash sources familiar with the matter on Tuesday said that Vietnamese millers had imported around 30,000 tons of Canadian canola meal per month the last two months, as prices have fallen due to the ongoing trade dispute between Canada and China, who usually takes the bulk of the country's canola meal exports. Vietnam typically imports soybean meal for animal feed, but has substituted the cheaper canola meal recently due to price.

 

  • Cash sources also reported on Tuesday that Asian millers have been mostly responsible for the strong wheat export pace in recent weeks, saying that competitive prices and delays in shipments from the Black Sea have led to increased purchases from non-traditional buyers. The sources say Indonesian importers have purchased around 500,000 tons, while buyers in Bangladesh have purchased around 250,000 tons and Sri Lanka has purchased around 100,000 tons.

 

  • France's Ag Ministry on Tuesday raised their estimate of the country's soft wheat crop from 33.1 MMTs previously to 33.3 MMTs now, which if accurate, would be up nearly 30% from last year and up roughly 5% from the five-year average. Meanwhile, corn production is now seen at 13.4 MMTs, down from 13.7 MMTs last month.

 

  • As the Federal Reserve's September FOMC policy meeting is set to get started later today, traders are almost fully pricing in a quarter-point rate cut following the conclusion of the meeting tomorrow afternoon; the CME's FedWatch tool this morning has the odds of such an outcome pegged at 96%, while there remains a 4% chance that policymakers cut rates by a half point.

 

  • Weather forecasts continue to be little changed for the Midwest this morning in either the short term or the long term, with forecasts for this week continuing to show good rain potential in the northwestern Corn Belt while the east stays warm/dry and forecasts for next week showing generally a continuation of this pattern into the back third of the month. The EU AI model this morning is again trying to bring rainfall back to the eastern Midwest, but our confidence in this solution is low, and there is no change to the temperature outlook in the 10-15 day period from yesterday.