Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• December Corn (CZ): $4.23 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents; inside day lower
• March Corn (CH): $4.41, down 6 1/4 cents; inside day lower
• December/March Spread (CZ/CH): -17 3/4, down 1/2 cent

? Market Headlines:

• The USDA's daily export sales reporting system this morning showed private exporters had sold 148,971 MTs of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/26 marketing year. The buyer is rumored to be either South Korea or Japan, with the sale said to be part of an optional origin purchase made last week.

• This morning's weekly export inspections report for the week ending September 11th showed corn inspections in the week at 1.512 MMTs, which was above the upper end of trade expectations and was up 5% from the week prior. Cumulative inspections through the first two weeks of the marketing year stand at 2.161 MMTs, which is up 106% from last year.

• Following Friday's WASDE update, the Renewable Fuels Association resumed its calls for increased US ethanol production, saying in a statement that "this report again underscores the urgent need to quickly open and expand markets for corn, including removing unnecessary barriers that constrain market opportunities for ethanol."

Summary:

Corn futures started the week lower on Monday and did a little bit of backing and filling from Friday's sharply higher closes, though we didn't see a lot throughout the day today from a news standpoint that could be pointed to as reason for the decline in values. Based on conversations had late last week and throughout the morning this morning, we assume there has been an uptick in harvest activity in the past 72 hours and this is likely at least partially responsible for the day's selling. Ideas that Friday's rally may have also gone too far, too fast also likely helped add to the selling pressure on Monday as there really wasn't anything in the data that justified a 10-cent up move. From a price standpoint, the bulls will be disappointed this week should prices fall below last week's lows, while Friday's high just above 4.30 looks to be fairly strong resistance on the top side.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• November Soybeans (SX): $10.42 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents
• January Soybeans (SF): $10.61 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents
• October Soybean Meal (MV): $285.20, down $2.40/ton; inside day lower
• October Soybean Oil (LV): 51.76, up 0.09 cents/lb
• November/January Spread (SX/SF): -19, unchanged

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly export inspections report for the week ending September 11th showed soybean inspections in the week at 80k MTs, which was above the upper end of trade expectations and up nearly 72% from the week prior. Cumulative inspections through two weeks in the marketing year now stand at 1.068 MMTs, which is up 43% from last year.

• NOPA (the National Oilseed Processors Association) released monthly soybean crush and soybean oil stocks data this morning for the month of August; the report showed US soybean crush in the month at 189.810 mil bu, which was above trade estimates and a new record for the month. The figure was down 3% from July but still up more than 20% from August of last year.

• Soybean oil stocks as of August 31st were seen at 1.245 bil lbs, which was down nearly 10% from the end of July but still up 9% from the same week last year; this was also a new eight-month low. USDA will release their crush and stocks figures for August on October 1st.

• South American ag group AgRural said on Monday that soybean planting in Brazil for the new crop season had reached just 0.12% of the expected area, which compares to 0.06% through the same point in the previous season. The group said in a statement that they weren't calling the situation delated at this point, but added planting has gotten off to a somewhat slower pace due to a general lack of humidity.

Summary:

NOPA showed better-than-expected US soybean crush data this morning for the month of August, but the numbers still weren't enough to lead values higher by the end of the day as the ongoing lack of China business and looming harvest pressured the market to start the week. There was optimism this morning coming out of weekend talks in Spain between the two sides, but as far as we can tell, the only real progress that was made was regarding social media app TikTok, and we see this as having little impact on US ag or the broader trading environment between Washington and Beijing. Talks are continuing, which we suppose is better than the alternative, but it remains our opinion that an ag-related trade deal is still some ways off and these weekly pops are nothing more than funds/algorithm traders reading headlines and trying to make a few quick bucks. On the product side, there wasn't a lot new to start the week, with there being little new over the weekend on the EPA/biofuel front.

? Prices:

• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.25, up 1 1/2 cents
• March Chicago Wheat (WH): $5.42 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents
• December/March Spread (WZ/WH): -17 3/4, down 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly export inspection report for wheat for the week ending September 11th showed inspections in the week at 755k MTs, which was above trade expectations and up 76% from last week. Cumulative inspections now stand at 7.855 MMTs, which is up 12% from last year.

• Russia late last week increased its wheat export duty by nearly 3x to 495.9 rubles starting on September 17th, but failed to give any sort of reason for the increase. The moves comes as exports have been slow to start the season, with private groups seeing September's figures down some 20% compared to last year.

Summary:

Wheat continues to be wheat, and prices were able to break from the rest of the group on Monday to close higher despite the news cycle continuing to tout higher production and lower prices across most of the world's main producers. Another good week of inspections data could be pointed to as a reason for the buying today, but otherwise, there were more buyers than sellers and prices continue to otherwise chop just above contract lows that were recently made last week.

In Other News

• Livestock markets started the week on a firmer note:
• October live cattle: $234.60, up $4.62
• October feeder cattle: $354.50, up $8.70; inside day higher
• October lean hogs: $97.52, up 40 cents; inside day higher

• Outside markets started the week mixed to mostly higher:
• Crude oil futures: up 60-70 cents/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is up 50 points, the S&P500 index is up 30 points, and the NASDAQ is up 180 points
• US $ Index: down around 20 points

• In regards to new penalties on China for continuing to buy Russian oil, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Monday that the US wouldn't impose the new measures unless Europe imposed matching ones, underscoring Washington's desire to maintain a unified front with other allied trading partners.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• There is little new in terms of the precip forecast for this week, as the EU model continues to show mostly dry conditions in the eastern Corn Belt while areas to the west and in the central Plains look to continue seeing increased moisture potential in the period. The heaviest totals of 3+" are seen near the border between north and south Dakota, while lesser totals are generally seen further to the south.

• On the temperature side, things look to remain mostly warmer than average through the week this week, especially in the east and east-central US, though will cool marginally the back half of the week and into the weekend. The west and southwest, meanwhile, will be on the cooler side.

? Extended Forecast:

• Precip maps in the week two period are little changed from the end of last week, and show wetter than normal conditions in the PNW and along the US Gulf but drier than normal conditions elsewhere.

• Temperature maps are also little changed from the back half of last week, and continue to show mostly warm conditions for the Corn Belt into the end of the month. We mentioned the GFS being cooler than the EU this morning, but the 12Z GFS run is now more like the EU's output in continuing to show warmth lingering.