Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• December Corn (CZ): $4.30, up 10 1/4 cents
• March Corn (CH): $4.47 1/4, up 10 cents
• December/March Spread (CZ/CH): -17 1/4, up 1/4 cent
• For the week: CZ was up 12 cents; CH was up 10 3/4 cents

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's WASDE update pegged the average US corn yield at 186.7 bu/acre, down 2.1 bu from last month; however, production still increased 72 mil bu to 16.814 bil on a 1.4 million acre increase in both planted and harvested area. Planted area at 98.7 million acres is now up 3.4 million acres from the USDA's initial estimate in May. At the state level, there are still six states currently expected to set new all-time yield records.

• Demand-wise, old crop demand was lowered 25 mil bu which led to a 20 mil bu increase in carry-in stocks, but this and the production increase were offset by a 100 mil bu increase in new crop exports. This all led to ending stocks being down just 7 mil bu from last month at 2.110 bil bu. World stocks were seen at 281.4 MMTs, down from 282.5 last month.

• USDA made no adjustments to old crop or new crop corn production in Argentina, but did raise Brazil old crop production to 135 MMTs from 132 previously; they also decreased 2024/25 exports out of Ukraine by 400k MTs and lowered China 2025/25 imports by 1 MMT to 3 MMTs.

Summary:

Corn futures punched through resistance to end the week this week, with the Dec contract working into the Fourth of July gap area and also closing above the 100-day moving average for the first time since late-May. There were rumors floating around this week that planted area could possibly be higher today based on new FSA data, but we're not sure anyone had nearly 99 million acres on their bingo cards going into today. That said, the sharply higher closes in spite of that leads us to further believe that the market has likely scored an early-seasonal bottom, with the trend usually higher into winter once harvest has surpassed the 50% mark. Remember, traders have priced in a lot of bearish supply-side information in the last month to two months.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• November Soybeans (SX): $10.46 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents
• January Soybeans (SF): $10.65 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents
• October Soybean Meal (MV): $287.60, up $1.50/ton
• October Soybean Oil (LV): 51.67, up 0.59 cents/lb
• November/January Spread (SX/SF): -19, unchanged
• For the week: SX was up 19 3/4 cents; SF was up 19 3/4 cents; MV was up $7.0/ton; LV was up 0.86 cents/lb

? Market Headlines:

• Private exporters this morning reported daily export sales flashes of 22,000 MTs of soybean oil for delivery to South Korea during the 2025/26 marketing year. This is the first flash bean oil sale since March.

• WASDE this morning pegged average US soybean yield at 53.5 bu/acre, down 0.1 from last month, but like corn, production was nonetheless higher as planted and harvested area were each adjusted higher by 200k acres a piece; this put production at 4.301 bil bu. At the state level, there are 8 states expected to either set or tie all-time yield records.

• As for the rest of the balance sheet, there were next to no changes made to the old crop, while the new crop sheet saw crush adjusted higher by 15 mil bu while exports were adjusted lower by 20 mil bu. This, along with the production adjustment, led to ending stocks increasing 10 mil bu to 300 mil bu.

• At the world level, ending stocks were lowered slightly from last month to 123.99 MMTs; USDA made no production adjustments in either Brazil or Argentina, while Chinese soybean imports were left unchanged from last month in both the old and new crop.

• In the products, meal exports were adjusted 500k MTs higher to 19.2 MMTs, while production was also increased 375k MTs. For oil, domestic use was up 150 mil lbs and production was up 180 mil lbs; there was no change made to exports.

Summary:

Perhaps more surprising than the increase in corn acres was the subsequent increase in soybean acres also, which led production here to tick higher despite yield being down slightly from last month. Last month when corn area was increased, there was a trade-off at the expense of soybean acres but that was not the case this go around. With there not being a lot of other notable balance sheet adjustments here otherwise, we would expect trader attention next week to quickly return to the China situation, with US and Chinese officials expected to hold meetings in Spain next week. The market will likely remain hyper-sensitive to any sort of headline regarding China, which along with harvest starting in the US, means one should be prepared for a possibly choppier than normal week next week.

? Prices:

• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.23 1/2, up 2 cents
• March Chicago Wheat (WH): $5.41, up 2 3/4 cents
• December/March Spread (WZ/WH): -17 1/2, down 3/4 cent
• For the week: WZ was up 4 1/4 cents; WH was up 5 1/4 cents

? Market Headlines:

• There weren't a lot of wheat adjustments in this morning's update, with any production data being held off until the NASS small grains report at the end of the month. US ending stocks were down 25 mil bu from last month on a 25 mil bu increase in exports, which was the only balance sheet change.

• At the world level, stocks were up nearly 4 MMTs from last month to 264.06 MMTs; USDA raised old crop Canadian exports 1.8 MMTs to 29.3 MMTs and raised EU exports 0.8 MMTs to 27.8 MMTs. For 2025/26, Australia production was up 3.5 MMTs on the month to 34.5 MMTs and their exports were up 2 MMTs to 25 MMTs, while production was also adjusted higher in Canada, the EU, Russia, and Ukraine by a combined 5.3 MMTs.

Summary:

The wheat market was a clear follower on Friday, as prices were drug higher by buying in the corn and soybean markets. With USDA adding nearly 10 MMTs to global production, there are some in the trade that feel possibly the bulk of the bearish supply-side news could be behind us.

In Other News

• Livestock markets finished the week lower on Friday:
• October live cattle: $229.97, down $2.30
• October feeder cattle: $345.80, down $6.55
• October lean hogs: $97.12, down $1.05

• Outside markets are trading quietly mixed to end the week:
• Crude oil futures: up 20-30 cents/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 270 points, the S&P500 index is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is up 100 points
• US $ Index: up 5 points

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Weather through the weekend and into the first part of next week will be similar to what has been seen this week for most of the central and eastern Corn Belt, while rainfall potential looks to increase in the west and north over the weekend. Total through Sunday night look to range from 1-2" through the Dakotas, with a lesser half inch to an inch seen further to the south.

? Extended Forecast:

• Week two precip maps have continued trying to move rainfall potential further east into the end of the month but haven't seen any sort of notable shift that would elicit a large amount of confidence the last couple days. The EU AI model is the wettest of the bunch, but has been the least accurate through summer.

• 10-15 day temperature maps this afternoon are showing warmth hanging around in the east, while the west stays slightly cooler than normal. This forecast has changed all week, so attention will be paid over the weekend to how models see this pattern progressing.