AM Comments September 12 2025
Good morning. Happy Friday. Report day is here but CBOT ag markets have still not seen much activity in the overnight hours, with Friday morning trade starting similar again to how the rest of the week has gone. For today, traders will have their attention almost entirely focused on the 11am central time WASDE update, with balance sheet revisions and stocks/production estimates then to likely key price direction the rest of the day and into the first part of next week. From there though, unless the USDA does something drastic today, we assume harvest data will quickly take over as trade topic number one, with activity expected to pick up significantly this weekend and into next amid ongoing warm/dry forecasts. To start Friday, corn futures are trading 1-2 cents higher, while soybeans and Chicago wheat are both trading either side of unchanged. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around $1/ton and soybean oil is up 30 points. Outside markets are again trading mixed also, crude oil futures are up around 80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 90 points, and the US$ index is up 10-15 points; the S&P500 and the NASDAQ are both near unchanged.
Today's Reports: September WASDE; CFTC Commitment of Traders
- Friday's delivery slate from the CME Group includes 4 contracts of soybean meal, 2 contracts of soybean oil, 7 contracts of rice, 48 contracts of corn, 1 contract of KC wheat, and 24 contracts of soybeans.
- This morning's September WASDE update is expected to show new crop corn ending stocks coming in at 2.013 bil bu compared to 2.117 bil bu last month, while soybean ending stocks are seen at 287 mil bu vs 290 mil last month. Wheat stocks are seen at 863mil bu vs 869 mil in August. At the world level, corn stocks are seen at 282.1 MMTs vs 282.5 previously, soybean stocks are seen at 125.1 MMTs vs 124.9 previously, and wheat stocks are seen at 261.1 MMTs vs 260.1 previously.
- Production-wise, traders see average US corn yield at 186.0 bu/acre vs 188.8 in August and production at 16.502 bil bu vs 16.742 mil last month. For soybeans, yield is estimated at 53.2 bu/acre vs 53.6 last month and production is seen at 4.262 bil bu vs 4.292 last month.
- French crop consultancy FranceAgriMer, in a weekly update, said they see French corn conditions as of September 8th at 62% G/EX, which compares to 79% last year as of the same date. The group also said harvest progress ticked up 1% on the week to 2% complete.
- The weekly update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, released yesterday, showed corn harvest for the 2024/25 season had been completed, while production was maintained at 49 MMTs. The group also said 2025/26 corn planting had reached 3.8% of the projected 7.8 million hectares, which is ahead of both last year's pace and the ten-year average. For wheat, just over 97% of the crop continues to be rated normal or excellent.
- According to the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending September 6th totaled 361k tons, which was down 6% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week at 230k tons, up 38% on the week, while soybean shipments at just 84k tons were down 50% on the week. STL barge freight rates increased $2.46/short ton on the week to $30.90.
- Following Thursday headlines of an alleged meeting later this fall in China between President Trump and President Xi, the White House said on Friday that Treasury Secretary Bessent was scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He and other senior Chinese officials next week in Madrid, Spain to further discussions around national security, the economy and trade according to sources familiar.
- Ahead of expected interest rate cuts in the US next week, the European Central Bank on Thursday left rates unchanged at 2.15% for the fourth consecutive month, which has led some economists to believe the ECB has likely now ended its rate cutting cycle. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia also lowered interest rates this morning by 100 basis points to now 17%, which was a slightly smaller cut than was expected.
- Weekend weather across most of the Midwest looks to be similar to that of the rest of the week except for in the far northwestern part of the region, which is expected to see rains beginning later today/tonight that look to last into the first part of next week. Otherwise, areas east of the Dakotas/NE look to continue next to no precip potential, which is causing crops to rapidly dry down in some areas. Field fire risk will likely be elevated through the early part of harvest.
- Beyond next week, forecasts trended warmer again in the east overnight, but the west trended cooler as the models see a bit more continuation of the pattern currently in place. We've talked about it all week but our confidence in the 10-15 day forecast simply isn't very high, while the 5-10 day shows warm air lingering at least through next weekend. On the precip side, models are trying to bring moisture back into the central Midwest, but chances don't look to be much more than average at best for most.
- Good luck with today's USDA report; and have a good and safe weekend!