Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• December Corn (CZ): $4.19 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents
• March Corn (CH): $4.37 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents
• December/March Spread (CZ/CH): -17 1/2, unchanged

? Market Headlines:

• Brazil's CONAB this morning pegged corn production in the final update of the season at a record 139.696 MMTs, which was up 2% from last month and up nearly 21% from last year. USDA will update its figure tomorrow, but currently stands at 132.0 MMTs.

• This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending September 4th showed corn sales in the week at 540k MTs, which was below trade expectations. Featured buyers in the week were Mexico (256,500 MTs) and Japan (143,700 MTs), while the report also showed 1.170 MMTs of old crop sales that got rolled forward.

• For tomorrow's WASDE update, traders see new crop corn ending stocks coming in at 2.013 bil bu vs 2.117 bil last month, while world corn stocks are seen at 282.1 MMTs vs 282.5 MMTs last month. On the production side, US yield is seen at 186.0 vs 188.8, while production is seen at 16.502 bil bu vs 16.742 bil.

Summary:

Corn futures saw higher closes on Thursday, led to the upside by other markets in the ag space, but continued to otherwise trade inside of the same range they've been in all week. What early yield reports we've heard this week have been marginally disappointing relative to last year, but with the last year being an all-time record for a lot of folks, its somewhat difficult to make any sort of big picture determinations based on these numbers; like we've said all week, more data is needed. Besides this and like we said above, its just all about what USDA prints for supply and demand numbers tomorrow, with there still being a relatively sizeable debate ongoing regarding yield and crop size.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• November Soybeans (SX): $10.33 1/2, up 8 1/4 cents; outside day higher
• January Soybeans (SF): $10.52 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents; outside day higher
• October Soybean Meal (MV): $286.10, up $2.60/ton
• October Soybean Oil (LV): 51.08, up 0.61 cents/lb
• November/January Spread (SX/SF): -19, up 1/2 cent

? Market Headlines:

• CONAB this morning pegged Brazilian 2024/25 soybean production in the final update of the season at a record 171.5 MMTs, which was up just over 1% from last month and is up more than 13% from last year. USDA will update its figure tomorrow, but is currently at 169.0 MMTs.

• This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending September 4th showed soybean sales in the week at 541k MTs, which was below the lowed end of trade expectations. Taiwan was the featured buyer in the week at 62k MTs, while unknown destinations were buyers of 431,700 MTs. The report also showed 767k MTs of sales rolled over from the 2024/25 crop year.

• Of note, the export sales report also showed 67,800 MTs of soybeans sold to China in the old crop year, but this was just a correction and was a sale previously reported to another destination. China has still bought zero US new crop beans, and hasn't bought any US beans in general in several months.

• There were reports from Chinese media outlets on Thursday that following more talks by trade officials this week with the US, the groundwork has been possibly been laid for a Trump visit to China sometime in October or November. We are skeptical of such a meeting at this point, but the news rallied soy futures.

• For the WASDE tomorrow, traders US soybean ending stocks coming in at 287 mil bu vs 290 mil last month, while world stocks are seen at 125.1 MMTs vs 124.9 MMTs last month. On the production side, average yield is seen at 53.2 bu/acre vs 53.6, and production is seen at 4.262 bil bu vs 4.292 bil.

Summary:

Stop us if you've heard this before, but bean futures closed higher on Thursday amid rumors of trade progress again between the US and China, with rumblings of a possible Trump trip to Beijing this fall causing prices to rally throughout the day today. Like we said earlier, we are skeptical of such a meeting at this point and assume Trump means what he says when he told reporters several weeks ago that he wouldn't be making a trip to China without a deal in place; there has been little if any progress made between then and now which underscores our pessimism.

? Prices:

• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.21 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents; new contract low at 5.12
• March Chicago Wheat (WH): $5.38 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents; new contract low at 5.29 1/2
• December/March Spread (WZ/WH): -16 3/4, up 3/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending September 4th showed wheat sales in the week at 305k MTs, which was right at the lower end of trade expectations. Featured buyers in the week were Japan (78,600 MTs) and Indonesia (70,000 MTs).

• For tomorrow's WASDE report, traders see US wheat ending stocks coming in at 836 mil bu vs 869 mil last month, while world stocks are seen at 261.1 MMTs vs 260.1 MMTs last month.

Summary:

Wheat futures had one of their better days of the last couple weeks on Thursday after making another round of new contract lows early in the session. The recovery is even more impressive when looking at the fact that private crop estimates from most of the world's biggest producers have continued to rise over the past week, which has led traders to wonder if this could be the seasonal September bottom the market has seemingly been probing for for several days now.

In Other News

• Livestock markets saw buying for a second straight session on Thursday:
• October live cattle: $232.27, up $1.12
• October feeder cattle: $352.35, up $1.95
• October lean hogs: $98.17, up $1.35

• Outside markets are trading sharply mixed:
• Crude oil futures: down $1.30-1.40/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is up 580 points, the S&P500 index is up 50 points, and the NASDAQ is up 150 points
• US $ Index: down 20-30 points

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Not a lot to talk about this afternoon on weather the rest of the week, as models have been in good agreement for several days now on better rain chances for the western/northwestern parts of the Corn Belt into the first part of next week, while the eastern and central Midwest continues to hold in a drier pattern.

• Temperatures look to continue running above average for at least the next 10 days or so for most of the US, with the warmest air expected to be in the eastern US into next week.

? Extended Forecast:

• Precip anomaly maps continue to show drier biases for most of the Corn Belt into September the 25th, while the central US is drier today than was seen yesterday.

• Extended temperature forecasts are continuing to try and bring cooler air back into the central US by the end of the month, but this pattern shift needs to make it into some of the shorter term outlooks before we get much confidence in it.