AM Comments September 11 2025
Good morning. Markets are seeing more mixed trade at the CBOT to start Thursday morning, though activity through the overnight session has been marginally better than that of the past few days. Granted, this isn't saying a lot and it wouldn't have taken much to get that designation, but the 8 or 9 cent trading range in the beans so far is a bit more than what was seen to start Tuesday or Wednesday. We can't say the same for grain prices though, with values in both the corn and the wheat markets continuing to be pretty much dead in the water this morning. We see one more day of choppy trade as most probable today as there again isn't a lot new, with USDA data then to likely key price direction into the weekend beyond mid-morning tomorrow. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 5-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 30-40 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are down 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 60 points and the US$ index is up 20-30 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points and the NASDAQ is up 70 points.
Today's Reports: Weekly Export Sales; Weekly Jobless Claims; Monthly CPI/Inflation
- September deliveries were active again this morning; the CME Group assigned another 96 contracts of soybean meal, 33 contracts of rice, 154 contracts of corn, 2 contracts of KC wheat, 3 contracts of oats, and 10 contracts of soybeans.
- This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending September 4th is expected to show new crop corn sales in a range of 900k-2.4 mil MTs, new crop soybean sales in a range of 400k-1.6 mil MTs, and new crop wheat sales in a range of 300k-650k MTs.
- For tomorrow's WASDE update, traders see new crop corn ending stocks coming in at 2.013 bil bu compared to 2.117 bil bu last month, while soybean ending stocks are seen at 287 mil bu vs 290 mil last month. Wheat stocks are seen at 863mil bu vs 869 mil in August. At the world level, corn stocks are seen at 282.1 MMTs vs 282.5 previously, soybean stocks are seen at 125.1 MMTs vs 124.9 previously, and wheat stocks are seen at 261.1 MMTs vs 260.1 previously.
- Production-wise, traders see average US corn yield at 186.0 bu/acre vs 188.8 in August and production at 16.502 bil bu vs 16.742 mil last month. For soybeans, yield is estimated at 53.2 bu/acre vs 53.6 last month and production is seen at 4.262 bil bu vs 4.292 last month.
- China's government on Wednesday said it had summoned its largest hog breeders to discuss measures to reduce production as the country continues to face oversupply issues and falling prices. Some 25 companies have been asked to attend a meeting in Beijing on September 16th according to a notice viewed by Bloomberg.
- Staying in China, sources familiar with the matter said earlier this week that Beijing had approved Brazilian sorghum imports for the first time, adding that the first cargos could possibly be shipped before the end of the year. The agreement comes amid ongoing trade disputes between the US and China, as China typically buys a sizeable amount of US sorghum annually; however, exports through July according to census trade data are down nearly 100% from last year at just 82k MTs.
- The Rosario Grain Exchange this week said that Argentine corn production in the 2025/26 season could possibly reach a record 61 MMTs if weather cooperates, as farmers look to shift planted area back to corn and away from other crops. The group said they see planted area possibly being up some 17% compared to last year, while soybean area is subsequently seen falling by around 7%.
- This morning's monthly inflation report for August is likely to show a slight uptick in prices during the month, but economists don't see the data as being detrimental enough to derail rate-cut prospects at the Fed's net FOMC meeting next week. FedWatch this morning shows a 92% chance at a quarter-point cut next week.
- Sources from the EU said on Thursday that the bloc was unlikely to acquiesce US President Trump's request to impose sweeping tariffs on India or China in an effort to black-ball Russia. Sources said the EU sees tariffs as a more rigid, less flexible alternative to sanctions, which it prefers to use on individual companies or entities that can be later be removed.
- Weather forecasts are again little changed this morning in either the short term or the extended period, as there continues to be good model agreement on mostly warm/dry weather for the eastern Corn Belt into next week that should allow for early harvest activity to pick up, while better rains start to fill in in the western and northwestern parts of the belt over the weekend.
- Week two precip maps trended drier overnight in the western and west-central US, but saw little change through the Midwest as conditions here are still expected to remain drier than average.