Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• December Corn (CZ): $4.17, down 2 3/4 cents
• March Corn (CH): $4.34 1/2, down 3 cents
• December/March Spread (CZ/CH): -17 1/2, up 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly ethanol report from the EIA with data for the week ending September 5th showed average daily production in the week at 1.105 mil bbls, which was up 2.8% from last week and up 2.3% from the same week last year. Corn usage in the week was estimated at 109.2 mil bu.

• Ethanol stocks were seen at 22.837 mil bbls, which was up 1.2% from the week prior but down 3.7% from the same week last year. This was also a new 5-week high stocks figure.

Summary:

Weekly ethanol data from the EIA this morning was positive, but other than that, Wednesday trade was almost identical to Tuesday's trade as there continues to be little excitement with harvest still not quite rolling. We've said it all month now but amid the wide-ranging yield debates that have occurred since the August crop tour season came and went, there is added uncertainty as to what is actually out in fields this year and this has produced a wait-and-see trading environment that has turned dull and uneventful quickly. Newswires reported today that total volume in the corn market was less than that of the bean oil market, further illustrating the lack of desire by most anyone to trade corn futures in the current scenario.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• November Soybeans (SX): $10.25 1/4, down 6 cents
• January Soybeans (SF): $10.44 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents
• October Soybean Meal (MV): $283.50, down $4.20/ton; inside day lower
• October Soybean Oil (LV): 50.47, up 0.54 cents/lb
• November/January Spread (SX/SF): -19 1/2, down 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Reuters reported on Wednesday that the White House was considering an EPA-submitted plan that would require large oil refiners to cover around 50% or less of the biofuel blending requirements that were recently made exempt last month. The report comes just a day after Republican lawmakers from refinery states introduced legislation that would block such a move, saying it was bad for consumers.

Summary:

Biofuel policy news and spread activity in the product markets again largely dominated the soy complex on Wednesday, as we appear to be headed for a showdown between the petroleum industry and the farm industry regarding how much renewable diesel and ethanol must be blended into US fuel supplies each year. Refinery states on Tuesday proposed legislation that would not allow the blending requirements made exempt by a ruling last month for small refiners to be passed on to larger ones, only for wires a day later to report that the White House was still considering reallocating up to half of the requirements to larger refiners. The Trump administration knows a significant amount of its backers are in the farm community, making a potential ruling an interesting one.

? Prices:

• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.15, down 5 1/4 cents
• March Chicago Wheat (WH): $5.32 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents
• December/March Spread (WZ/WH): -17 1/2, unchanged

? Market Headlines:

• Russia's IKAR ag consultancy on Wednesday raised their estimate of the country's 2025 wheat production by 1 MMT to 87 MMTs, while also raising its export forecast a like amount to 44 MMTs. The group increased total Russian grain production in the season from 132.8 MMTs to 135.0 MMTs.

Summary:

It was another slow day in wheat world on Wednesday, with prices falling to lower closes for a second straight day but managing to narrowly avoid making new contract lows. Data from Russia shows that while private production estimates continue to tick higher, the price paid to farmers has subsequently been ticking lower; sources say cash prices are down some 15% over the past month, but production costs are said to be up nearly 20%, which has led to talk already popping up of reduced planted area next season.

Corn

• Corn futures have traded mostly sideways over the past week, but have still remained in the uptrend that they've been in since early August. For this week, resistance will be similar to last week, and will come in first at 4.24 3/4, which marks the recent high, and then above here at the 4.30 area, which marks the mid-July high and the open chart gap area.

• On the support side this week, 50% retracement of the recent up move comes in at 4.08 3/8, and then below here, the even $4 level remains stronger support. Should $4 fail, it will likely lead to a quick retest of the contract low made in August at 3.92.

• RSI this week is similar to last week and is seen at 53.7.

Soybeans

• Soybean futures have traded sideways over the past week and have had relatively similar daily ranges for every session during that span. The 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages continue to be first support this week and are at 10.24, 10.30 and 10.26 1/2 respectively, with 50% retracement of the August up move also near here at 10.22.

• Should these levels fail, the even $10 level continues to be major support below here, with the August low then at 9.81 1/4.

• Resistance this week will come in just below 10.40, which marks the 10-day moving average the recent high from the past week, and then above here at 10.62 3/4, which marks the reaction high from August. On a close above here, our major upside objective remains the summer high at 10.74 1/4.

• RSI this week continues to be in neutral territory and is seen at 45.6.

In Other News

• Livestock markets finished Wednesday higher:
• October live cattle: $231.15, up 97 cents
• October feeder cattle: $350.40, up 47 cents
• October lean hogs: $96.82, up 70 cents

• Outside markets were again mixed but mostly higher:
• Crude Oil Futures: up $1.10-1.20/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 200 points, the S&P500 index is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 15 points
• US $ Index: up 5-10 points

• EIA also updated petroleum stocks data in this morning's weekly report:
• Crude Oil Stocks - up 3.939 mil bbls to 424.646 mil bbls
• Gasoline Stocks - up 1.458 mil bbls to 219.997 mil bbls
• Distillate Stocks - up 4.175 mil bbls to 120.638 mil bbls
• Implied gasoline demand in the week was estimated at 8.508 mil bbls/day, compared to 9.117 mil bbls last week and 8.478 mil in the same week last year.

• The S&P500 traded to new all-time highs again on Wednesday, driven by better-than-expected monthly PPI data this morning and a sharp rally in the tech space.

• President Trump said recently that trade negotiations with India were moving forward smoothly, adding that he was confident no major hurdles would come up that would prevent a deal. Indian media said the process would include an exchanging of trade delegations and also a possible in-person meeting in September, but there were little other details available.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Weather models continue to show precip favoring the western part of the Corn Belt the rest of the week, while areas in the east look to continue seeing little to no rain potential through the weekend and into the first part of next week.

• Temperatures also look to stay warm into next week, with daytime highs through the Midwest expected to reach the lower/mid-90's for several days through the weekend and into next week.

? Extended Forecast:

• Extended precip maps are trying their hardest to bring rain back to the eastern Corn Belt by the end of the month but have just been unable to do so for more than a run or 2, which has again been the case today. The EU AI model is notably wetter than the other models, but our confidence in this solution is low.

• The 10-15 day temperature outlooks have continued to fluctuate, with the EU solution now showing a notably cooler pocket of air in the west-central US in the period than was seen yesterday, but is in agreement with the GFS otherwise on the eastern US staying slightly warmer than average.