AM Comments September 10 2025
Good morning. It's been rinse and repeat again at the CBOT overnight, as markets are once again quietly lower in light volume to begin Wednesday. There continues to be a near-complete absence of any sort of new news to the space, which has produced choppy, sideways markets the last few sessions and we don't anticipate this to change ahead of Friday. Traders have spent all summer debating just how big is big in terms of crop sizes and that rooster will soon come to roost over the course of the next few weeks. Beyond there, big picture focus shifts back to South America sooner than later, while local basis markets likely become the US story into November/December and the end of the year. Corn futures to start Wednesday trade are 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is unchanged to a penny higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around $1/ton and soybean oil is up 5-10 points. Outside markets are mixed/mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 70 points, and the US$ index is near unchanged; the S&P500 is up 20 points and the NASDAQ is up 70 points. No new highs for gold overnight.
Today's Reports: Monthly PPI; EIA Weekly Ethanol Production/Energy Stocks
- The CME Group for Wednesday assigned another 8 contracts of soybean meal for delivery, along with 87 contracts of soybean oil, 50 contracts of rice, 6 contracts of KC wheat, 4 contracts of oats, and 15 contracts of soybeans.
- This morning's weekly ethanol production report from the EIA is expected to show average daily production in the week ending September 5th between 1.075-1.080 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 22.60-22.80 mil bbls.
- For Friday's WASDE update, traders see new crop corn ending stocks coming in at 2.013 bil bu compared to 2.117 bil bu last month, while soybean ending stocks are seen at 287 mil bu vs 290 mil last month. Wheat stocks are seen at 863mil bu vs 869 mil in August. At the world level, corn stocks are seen at 282.1 MMTs vs 282.% previously, soybean stocks are seen at 125.1 MMTs vs 124.9 previously, and wheat stocks are seen at 261.1 MMTs vs 260.1 previously.
- Production-wise, traders see average US corn yield at 186.0 bu/acre vs 188.8 in August and production at 16.502 bil bu vs 16.742 mil last month. For soybeans, yield is estimated at 53.2 bu/acre vs 53.6 last month and production is seen at 4.262 bil bu vs 4.292 last month.
- Brazilian grain exporter association ANEC said on Wednesday that they see the country's grain exports in the month of September at 7.43 MMTs now, which is up from a previous estimate of 6.75 MMTs made last week. The group doesn't give a breakdown for soybeans, but says meal exports are projected to reach 2.11 MMTs vs 1.94 seen previously, while corn exports are seen at 6.96 MMTs vs 6.37 previously.
- Cash sources in South America said on Wednesday that Bunge was expected to finish loading the 30,000 tons of Argentine meal that had been sold to China and announced previously by the end of the day today. The cargo would be the first of such shipments between the two countries and would come following a previously loaded vessel was diverted in transit to Vietnam earlier this summer.
- Amid ongoing efforts by China to diversify their trade away from the US, sources on Tuesday said that Beijing would be willing to import more ag and food products from Portugal ad would also encourage more Chinese companies to invest in the European country. The report comes following a meeting between Chinese trade representatives and Portugal's Prime Minister earlier this week.
- The US Supreme Court said on Tuesday that it would be deciding on whether President Trump's tariffs are legal beginning with a hearing during the first week of November, a sign that efforts are being made to expedite the decision that could potentially impact billions of dollars in trade. The tariffs currently remain in place following a recent federal appeals court ruling that the duties were illegal.
- With traders continuing to price in a quarter-point interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting later this month, the US Labor Department on Tuesday said US job growth in the 12 month period through last March was overstated by 911,000 jobs, suggesting momentum in the labor market began fading much earlier than was previously thought.
- Though there haven't been a lot of new developments on the trade front recently, President Trump on Tuesday encouraged officials from the EU to hit China with additional tariffs of up to 100% as part of his ongoing efforts to pressure Russian President Putin into ending the war in Ukraine. Trump also said Tuesday that he would be continuing talks with India aimed at similarly trying to pressure Russia.
- Little new of note on the weather front this morning, with models continuing to see mostly dry conditions across the Midwest the rest of this week and into next week amid steadily increasing daytime highs. Rains will be seen in the western and northwestern parts of the Corn Belt in the period, with the best totals today predicted for the Dakotas.
- The EU's 10-15 day temperature map this morning is warmer than was seen yesterday, but otherwise, extended forecasts are also little changed this morning and continue to show wetter biases in the western US while the east holds drier.