Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• December Corn (CZ): $4.19 3/4, down 2 cents
• March Corn (CH): $4.37 1/2, down 2 cents
• December/March Spread (CZ/CH): -17 3/4, unchanged

? Market Headlines:

• Headlines were limited in the corn market on Tuesday, with there being little in the way of news besides yesterday's crop progress and condition update that showed harvest pace at 4% to start the year, 1% behind last year.

• Private Black Sea analytical firm APK-Inform on Tuesday said that they see Ukraine's 2025 corn harvest at 30.3 MMTs, which is up from their previous estimate of 27.5 MMTs. The group also subsequently raised their export forecast slightly to 23.8 MMTs.

Summary:

Will keep it short and sweet in the summary section today, with there being little new to talk about in the corn market and prices finishing the day marginally lower on the second day of the week this week. Price discovery in the short term will continue to be a battle between massive global supplies and demand that has been better than expected to this point in the year, which likely leaves markets sideways. Yield reports remain the other point of interest, with the availability of combine data likely to increase in the days ahead.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• November Soybeans (SX): $10.31 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents
• January Soybeans (SF): $10.50 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents
• October Soybean Meal (MV): $287.70, up $5.80/ton
• October Soybean Oil (LV): 49.93, down 1.05 cents/lb
• November/January Spread (SX/SF): -19 1/4, down 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Lawmakers on Tuesday introduced legislation that would block President Trump from being able to shift renewable fuel blending credits from small refiners to larger ones, in a move that seems to indicate either an effort to appease the petroleum industry or preparation for an EPA ruling that would possibly see a large number of exemptions reallocated.

Summary:

Like corn, news in the soybean market was limited again on Tuesday aside from ongoing biofuel talks that leaned bearish throughout the day today. Spread activity seemed to also be apparent in the space, as meal inversely finished quite a bit higher on the day while the oil was lower. Otherwise, futures held last week's lows again throughout the day but did little else that showed any sign of excitement, with values remaining below last week's highs also.

? Prices:

• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.20 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents
• March Chicago Wheat (WH): $5.37 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents
• December/March Spread (WZ/WH): -17 1/2, unchanged

? Market Headlines:

• StatsCanada this morning pegged total Canadian wheat stocks as of July 31st at 4.112 MMTs, which compares to 5.278 MMTs as of the same date last year. Barely stocks were up from last year at 1.249 MMTs, while durum stocks ere down from last year as well at 496k MTs.

Summary:

Like other CBOT markets, wheat futures also saw a quiet day of trading on Tuesday and closed marginally lower as news continues to be quiet. Not a lot new today out of either Europe or Russia, while ideas that southern hemisphere exports will likely pick up over the next month or two has continued to keep a lid on the upside.

In Other News

• Cattle markets traded sharply lower on Tuesday while the hog market traded mixed:
• October live cattle: $230.17, down $5.62
• October feeder cattle: $349.92, down the $9.25 trading limit
• October lean hogs: $96.12, up 97 cents

• Outside markets saw mostly higher trade on Tuesday:
• Crude oil futures: up 40-50 cents/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is up 150 points, the S&P500 index is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 40 points
• US $ Index: up 30-40 points

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Weather forecasts in the short term are continuing to see precip favoring the western US, while the east continues to see little to no chances at rainfall through the end of the week and into the first part of next week.

• Nothing new on the temperature side this afternoon, as there continues to be good model agreement on above average temperatures for the northern and north-central US through the rest of the week this week and into next.

? Extended Forecast:

• Rainfall maps in the week two period are continuing to see little sign of a pattern shift into the back half of the month, with precip expected to continue to favoring the western US and western Canada in the period.

• 10-15 day temperature outlooks show cooler air then working back into the central US in the period, while the east is expected to remain slightly warmer than average. These model runs have been rather variable the past few days though, which is keeping our confidence low.