AM Comments September 9 2025

Posted on Sep 09 at 06:56

Good morning. Ag markets are once again quietly mixed coming into the back end of the overnight trading session this morning, with last night's ranges and volume being even smaller than Sunday night's. Yesterday afternoon's crop progress report failed to offer anything of interest again, which has kept new news limited over the last 12 hours or so and would lead us to believe market action throughout the day today will likely be similar to yesterday. Like we said Monday, until Friday's WASDE report gets here we just don't see traders taking a whole lot of risk on either side of the fence between now and then. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading unchanged to a penny lower and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny lower also. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $1-2/ton and soybean oil is up 5-10 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed, crude oil futures are up 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 50 points and the US$ index is down 5 points; the S&P500 is up 5 points and the NASDAQ is up 50 points. New contract highs again for gold overnight.

 

Today's Reports: API Energy Stocks

 

  • Tuesday morning's delivery slate from the CME Group included 22 contracts of soybean oil, 2 contracts of KC wheat, 3 contracts of oats and 46 contracts of soybeans.

 

  • Monday afternoon's weekly crop condition update showed corn conditions as of Sunday the 7th at 68% in the G/EX category, which is down 1% from the week prior but still up 4% compared to last year. At the state level, OH fell 10% on the week, while MI was down 8% and both IA and PA were down 4%. KS saw a 4% improvement on the week, while NC was up 2% and ND and TN were up 1%.

 

  • On the progress side, the amount of crop in the dough stage was seen at 95% for the week compared to 94% last year, while the amount of crop dented was seen at 74% vs 72% last year and the amount of crop that had reached maturity was seen at 25% vs 28% last year. In the first update of the season, harvest progress was seen at 4% complete, compared to 5% last year; TX is 69% harvested, while NC is 44% done, TN is 28% done, and KY is 18% done.

 

  • Soybean conditions on the week in the G/EX category fell 1% also to 64%. At the state level, NC was the biggest loser on the week, falling 12%, while OH was down 8%, TN was down 6% and LA and MO were both down 5%. KS and MS both improved 3% on the week, and MI and NE were both up 2%.

 

  • On the progress side for beans, 97% of the crop has set pods which matches last year's pace, while 21% of the crop is dropping leaves compared to 23% last year. Soybean harvest progress is expected to begin last week.

 

  • Lastly, spring wheat harvest progress in the weekly update was seen at 85% complete, which is up from 83% as of the same day last year and the five-year average of 84%. To view the full report from the USDA, please click here.

 

  • Canadian analytics firm StatisticsCanada will release updated principal field crop stocks data later this morning at 7:30am central time. Traders see the group pegging wheat stocks at 4.42 MMTs compared to 4.58 MMTs in July, while canola stocks are seen at 2.27 MMTs vs 3.23 previously and barley stocks are seen at 1.1 MMTs vs 1.15 previously.

 

  • USDA data released on Monday showed a further widening of the US ag trade deficit in the month of July, as exports lagged imports by some $4.97 billion in the month. This gap was nearly 10% wider than that seen last July and is seen as the largest on record for the month. The cumulative deficit through the first 7 months of the year is also seen at a new record of $33.6 billion.

 

  • House lawmakers passed legislation on Monday that would provide the USDA's Federal Grain Inspection Service with funding through the end of the 2030 fiscal year; the Senate Ag Committee deliberated funding for the service in July but have yet to approve the legislation. Said the president of the American Soybean Association, "Reauthorizing the US Grain Standards Act is vital to the continued success of US soy in global markets."

 

  • Along with Trump comments over the weekend regarding additional sanctions on Russia, crude oil prices also saw buying yesterday on the fact that OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected production cut starting in October, which helped ease concerns of oversupply.

 

  • Weather models this morning are similar to Monday's runs and continue to offer better precip potential through the northern and northwestern Corn Belt over the next several days than has been seen of late. The central and eastern parts will be left drier though, which should aid in the advancement of harvest. Extended maps also see this pattern mostly continuing for the next couple weeks, with there being little sign of a pattern shift present.

 

  • Nothing new this morning for the short term temperature outlook, but models in the 10-15 day period did trend back cooler again this morning in the central US. Both the EU and the GFS see the eastern US staying warmer through the period, and have also kept the West Coast warmer.