Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• December Corn (CZ): $4.21 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents
• March Corn (CH): $4.39 1/2, up 3 cents
• December/March Spread (CZ/CH): -17 3/4, up 3/4 cent; new contract low at -18 3/4

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly export inspection report for the first week of the new marketing year showed corn inspections in the week ending September 4th at 1.443 MMTs, which was up just marginally from last week and within trade expectations.

• French crop body FranceAgriMer said late last week that the French corn crop was rated 62% G/EX, which compares to 79% in the same category a year ago. The group also mentioned harvest had started, with 1% of the crop out as of September 1st.

• Private South American farm group AgRural said on Monday that they see first crop corn planting in Brazil at 12% complete, which is down from 15% through the same week last year.

Summary:

Corn futures finished the day higher on Monday but continue to trade within the same range seen for all of last week as news to start the week was rather limited again. Harvest activity started to pick up over the weekend, especially in the west and southwest, but there has not been enough data collected to this point to make any kind of assessment one way or the other; this likely changes in the weeks ahead, but for now, its still slow-going despite crops seemingly rapidly dying down in some areas.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• November Soybeans (SX): $10.33 3/4, up 6 3/4 cents
• January Soybeans (SF): $10.52 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents
• October Soybean Meal (MV): $281.90, up $1.40/ton
• October Soybean Oil (LV): 50.98, up 0.17 cents/lb
• November/January Spread (SX/SF): -19, down 1/2 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Soybean inspections in the first weekly report of the new marketing year were seen at 452k MTs, which was down just marginally from the week prior and also within trade expectations.

• Private South American farm group AgRural said on Monday that soybean planting in Brazil's southern state of Parana had begun, though only 0.02% of the expected planted area was seeded as of last Thursday. The group noted that soybean planting had not yet begun through this date last year.

• Preliminary Chinese customs data for the month of August shows the country's soybean imports in the month at 12.28 MMTs, which if accurate, would be a new record for that particular month and would be up more than 1% from the figure seen last August. This would put cumulative 2025 imports at 73.31 MMTs, up 4% from the same period last year.

Summary:

The soybean market held last week's low and finished the day higher on Monday, but otherwise had little else to write home about as volume remained constrained and prices just steadily drifted higher throughout the course of the session. With the first estimates of planting going on in South America occurring in recent days, it feels like the page is slowly starting to flip back to the southern hemisphere for the next few months as northern hemisphere crops are about known. The million dollar question into year end continues to be how much export business has already been lost amid China's absence and then how much of this can be recovered before South America has new crop supplies again after the first of the year.

? Prices:

• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.23 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents; outside day higher
• March Chicago Wheat (WH): $5.41 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents; outside day higher
• December/March Spread (WZ/WH): -17 1/2, down 1 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Weekly wheat inspections in the week ending September 4th were seen at 425k MTs, which was down 47% from last week but still within trade expectations. Cumulative inspections at 7.066 MMTs are now up 10% from last year.

• Russian media group Interfax, citing a statement from the country's ag ministry, said Russian grain exports since the start of the marketing year in July have totaled 7 MMTs, while estimates still see total exports in the July-December period this year reaching upwards of 33 MMTs.

• Private Black Sea analyst APK-Inform said on Monday that they see Ukraine's wheat crop possibly reaching 21.9 MMTs this year, while exports are seen at 15.3 MMTs. Ukraine's deputy economy minister said in August that crops could be even bigger than estimates with favorable weather the rest of the season.

Summary:

Chicago wheat futures held last week's bottom on Monday and failed to make new contract lows as short covering-based buying was enough to lift prices into the green by the end of the day. With the US farmer likely having sold what there is to sell at current levels, this should allow the September seasonal to kick in at some point with higher prices needed to encourage additional sales. However, the size of the crops in Australia and Argentina could potentially skew that seasonal a bit this year, as buyers may not chase prices as much in the short term knowing that they will plenty of supply available in another couple months.

In Other News

• Livestock markets saw mixed trade to start the week on Monday, with cattle generally firmer and hogs weaker:
• October live cattle: $235.80, down 17 cents; inside day lower
• October feeder cattle: $359.17, up $1.27
• October lean hogs: $95.15, down 87 cents; inside day lower

• Outside markets traded quietly mixed to start the new week for the most part:
• Crude oil futures: up 50-60 cents/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is up 50 points, the S&P500 index is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 120 points
• US $ Index: down 30-40 points

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Midwest weather the last 72 hours was rather benign, with rainfall limited mostly to areas in the south while the bulk of the main Corn Belt remained cool and dry. For this week, forecasts see better precip chances across the northern part of the US, but the heaviest totals look to be west of the main Midwest growing regions, allowing for early harvest to advance.

• Like last week, models continue to see a warm up in air temperatures beginning in the western and central US today and working south and east through the end of the week, with daytime highs in the Midwest expected to reach back into the low/mid-90's by the end of the week this week.

? Extended Forecast:

• Week two precip forecasts on Monday are like those seen to end last week, and continue to offer notable dryness through the eastern part of the US into the back third of the month. A corridor through the west-central US looks to hold in above average bias, but the models are in good agreement today that this moisture doesn't get any further east than KS/NE/SD.

• Temperature maps in the 10-15 day period trended warmer over the weekend, and now see the eastern US staying seasonally warm through the next two weeks and into the end of the month. The warmest air though, looks to remain over Canada for the most part, where temperatures will be some 10-20 degrees F above average.