AM Comments September 8 2025
Good morning. The first full trading week in September is off to a similar start to how last week ended, with all three of the corn, beans and wheat trading either side of unchanged with fairly narrow ranges so far to start Monday morning. Weekend news was again largely on the quiet side the last few days, which means market themes to start the week this week are much the same as they were a few days ago: harvest, China, and biofuels. All three will likely continue to impact price direction in the short term and which one leads will depend on the day, but the overall story of a large harvest coming and the need to allocate demand for such supplies will remain front and center as we go through September. The corn market this morning is trading 1-2 cents lower, soybeans are trading 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around $1/ton and soybean oil is up 60-70 points. Outside markets are also mostly higher, crude oil futures are up $1.20-1.30/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 30 points and the US$ index is down 10 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points and the NASDAQ is up 70 points.
Today's Reports: Weekly Export Inspections; Weekly Crop Progress
- According to the CME Group, there were another 88 contracts of soybean meal assigned for delivery overnight, along with 6 contracts of soybean oil, 16 contracts of rough rice, 14 contracts of KC wheat, 1 contract of oats, and 76 contracts of soybeans.
- Friday's weekly CFTC Commitment of traders report showed managed money traders in the week ending September 2nd were buyers of 19,199 contracts of corn (now net-short 91,487), sellers of 8,854 contracts of soybeans (net-long 11,964), and sellers of 356 contracts of Chicago wheat (net-short 81,493). In soy products, funds were sellers of 27,811 contracts of meal (net-short 89,522) and sellers of 14,542 contracts of oil (net-long 16,127).
- Preliminary Chinese customs data for the month of August shows the country's soybean imports in the month at 12.279 MMTs, which would be the highest ever for August; the figure was up just over 1% from August of last year and was also up more than 5% from the July import figure. A local cash analyst said the imports were larger than expected for the month due to crushers overbuying amid a lack of progress on trade talks with the US.
- Staying in China, a government agency last month sent a letter to the EPA saying that a plan to slash incentives for renewable diesel produced from imported feedstocks would disrupt trade, harm US fuel makers and undermine efforts to slash carbon emissions, rhetoric that echos concerns coming from major big oil players like Chevron and Mobil. The alliance between the two illustrates just how reliant the industry has become on imports of UCO and other feedstocks in recent years.
- Lastly out of Beijing this morning, government officials on Friday said they would be extending the anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola that has been making headlines in recent weeks to March of 2026, citing the complexity of the case according to sources familiar. China's Ag Minister said he is hopeful the move gives the two sides more time to reach a trade agreement, but did not go into further detail about whether progress was being made.
- Along with a host of other private US ag consultancies releasing crop estimates last week, S&P Global (previously known as Informa) said they see national average US corn yields this year at 189.1 bu/acre with production at 16.768 bil bu, and on soybeans, said they see national average yield at 53.8 bu/acre and production at 4.306 bil bu. Figures for both crops are above current USDA estimates, which will be updated on Friday.
- Private Brazilian group Safras y Mercado said late last week that farmers there have sold just over 20% of their 2025/26 soybean crop as of Friday, which compares to 29.2% on average and 24.8% through the same day last year. The group also said 2024/25 sales were seen at 84.1%, which compares to 87.7% the year prior and the five-year average of 89.3%.
- Private Ukrainian analytics group APK Inform said on Monday that Ukraine will likely harvest upwards of 58.8 MMTs of grain in 2025, up nearly 10% from their previous estimate. The group also increased its export forecast from 40 MMTs previously to now 41.9 MMTs, citing the increased production as reason for the increase.
- Also out of Ukraine, the country's largest food production union, UAC, said in a statement on Monday that rapeseed and soybean exports have been virtually halted in recent days due to confusion regarding a recent new 10% export duty on the products. Said the group, "As of September 5, exports have been completely halted. With a 10% duty, it is possible (to export), but ships are waiting in ports because the shipments contain mixed products from both producers and traders." Exports are not subject to the tariff if the producer sells its own products, but such documentation is hard to obtain.
- Oil prices are higher this morning coming out of the weekend in part due to comments by US President Trump that he is ready to move to a second phase of sanctions on Russia over their continued bombardment of Ukraine following another round of weekend missile and drone attacks on Kyiv. The comments seem to be the closest the President has come to further ratcheting up sanctions amid what have been mostly fruitless peace talks to this point.
- High pressure across the Midwest provided the area with mostly dry conditions the last few days, as rains were limited to areas further south and east of the main crop belt for the most part. As we get into this week, models see slightly improved rainfall chances in the north/northwestern part of the region, but totals look to be light and coverage spotty, while otherwise, the pattern looks to be similar to that of the weekend with dryness being the most likely outcome for the bulk of the Midwest, especially in the east, the next five days.
- Temperature-wise this week, heat has begun rebuilding in the west over the weekend, with warmer air expected to work its way back east by the middle of the week, returning daytime highs to above average for most all of the central US. Days 5-10 and 10-15 then see this heat mostly lingering in the east into the back half of the month, though the warmest air looks to stay further north in Canada.