PM Comments September 5 2025

Posted on Sep 05 at 14:22

Happy Friday. Markets saw mostly lower price action to end the week this week at the CBOT, with there being a notable amount of sell pressure seen pretty much across the whole of the space the last 10-20 minutes of the day going into the close. We have begun to hear more and more reports of harvest activity beginning to go on across the Midwest the last few days, making it possible that this could've been some early hedge activity ahead of the weekend. That corn futures made new rally highs on the day would, in our opinion, also support this argument, with there otherwise not being much else of a specific reason for the decline.

Have a good weekend!

Corn Market Update

? Prices:

December Corn (CZ): $4.18, down 1 3/4 cents
March Corn (CH): $4.36 1/2, down 1 cent
December/March Spread (CZ/CH): -18 1/2, down 3/4 cent
For the week: CZ was was down 2 1/4 cents; CH was down 1 1/4 cents

? Market Headlines:

Weekly export sales this morning for the week ending August 28th were seen at (281k) MTs in the old crop, which was within trade expectations; new crop sales were seen at 2.117 MMTs, which was also within trade expectations.

For the new crop, featured buyers in the week were Mexico (511,800 MTs) and Colombia (478,700 MTs), while unknown destinations in the week bought 320,500 MTs.

Following yield estimates from private consultancy StoneX on Thursday, S&P Global (formerly the Informa group) released updates on Friday, which showed they see the US average corn yield at 189.1 bu/acre, while production was seen at 16.768 bil bu; both are below current USDA estimates.

Summary:

After making new highs for the move earlier in the session on Friday, corn futures rolled over and closed lower to end the week on what could've possibly been some early season hedge selling going into the weekend. Private yield estimates are coming in basically anywhere from 180-190, with traders wanting actual data still before extending positions in either direction. Locally in central IL, we see the full gut slot of harvest as still being some 2-3 weeks away but there is no doubt that activity has picked up this week and will likely continue to do so into next week with no rain immediately in store for most. We continue to see it as likely that an early-season bottom has probably been scored, with exactly how far a rally can reach now being dependent on crop size and the pace of exports remaining elevated.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

November Soybeans (SX): $10.27, down 6 cents
January Soybeans (SF): $10.45 1/2, down 6 cents
October Soybean Meal (MV): $280.50, up 40 cents/ton
October Soybean Oil (LV): 50.81, down 0.70 cents/lb
November/January Spread (SX/SF): -18 1/2, unchanged
For the week: SX was down 27 1/2 cents; SF was down 27 cents; MV was down $2.90/ton; LV was down 0.89 cents/lb

? Market Headlines:

Private exporters this morning reported a pair of daily soybean flash sales; exporters reported 123,000 MTs of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/26 marketing year, and exporters also reported 204,650 MTs of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/26 marketing year.

Weekly export sales for the week ending August 28th this morning totaled (24k) MTs for the old crop, which was within trade expectations; new crop sales in the week at 819k MTs were also within trade expectations, though at the lower end.

For the new crop, featured buyers in the week were Mexico (116,100 MTs) Japan (71,100 MTs), and Indonesia (66,700 MTs), while unknown destinations in the week bought 269,000 MTs.

S&P Global pegged national average US soybean yields at 53.8 bu/acre, while production is seen at 4.306 bil bu; both are below USDA estimates.

Summary:

Soybean futures closed lower on Friday, making it three out of the four days this week that values declined as China (on a known basis) continues to be absent the US market and parts of the northern and western Corn Belt received crop finishing rains in recent days that should help fill pods. There just hasn't been anything bullish in the space in recent weeks since the China rumors initially surfaced on a Trump Truth Social post earlier in August. The ongoing lack of progress on biofuel policy also isn't helping, with concern regarding the reallocation of RIN's from the recent SRE rulings having taken back most all of the rally from when the higher RVO was announced in June.

Wheat Market Update

? Prices:

December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.19 1/4, down 1/4 cent
March Chicago Wheat (WH): $5.35 3/4, down 1/4 cent
December/March Spread (WZ/WH): -16 1/2, unchanged
For the week: WZ was down 15 cents; WH was down 12 1/4 cents

? Market Headlines:

This morning's weekly export sales report for wheat showed sales in the week ending August 28th at 313k MTs, which was below the lower end of trade expectations. Featured buyers in the week were Nigeria (117,100 MTs), Mexico (90,400 MTs), and the Philippines (65,800 MTs); unknown destinations in the week assigned out/canceled/rolled 176,800 MTs.

Summary:

Wheat futures closed quietly lower on Friday as there continues to be limited new news in the space aside from global price movement. Like we mentioned yesterday, until world values fall enough to increase export demand, it will simply be difficult to sustain a rally at the CBOT in the short term despite seasonals that are typically friendly this time of year.

In Other News

Livestock markets were again mixed on Friday in a continuation of Thursday's trade, with the cattle markets finishing lower and hogs finishing higher:
October live cattle: $235.97, down 97 cents
October feeder cattle: $357.90, down $1.05
October lean hogs: $96.02, up $1.00

Outside markets traded mostly lower to end the week Friday despite generally friendly jobs data this morning:
Crude oil futures: down $1.30-1.50/bbl
Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 200 points, the S&P500 index is down 20 points, and the NASDAQ is near unchanged
US $ Index: down 50-60 points

Reuters reported earlier this week that California lawmakers had voted to allow the sale of E15 ethanol blends in the state beginning as soon as the bill was signed by Governor Newsome. California is the largest auto market in the US and was the only state that did not previously allow the sale of E15.

Trade related updates for heading into the weekend for Friday included reports that President Trump had signed an executive order officially implementing the new US-Japan trade agreement, and also reports that the President would be reviewing the USMCA trade agreement with Canada and Mexico. A public hearing is expected following an October 4th comment period deadline, with a hearing then expected sometime in January.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

Weekend weather into next week will be mostly dry across most of the Midwest, with rainfall potential improving across the southern part of the region as we go through next week.

Temperature-wise, models continue to be in good agreement on cooler air remaining in place through the Midwest into about mid-week next week, when warmer air temps are then expected to return and linger for a bit into mid-month.

? Extended Forecast:

Rainfall potential for week two continues to see mixed prospects, with most of the western half of the US looking to see above average rainfall potential in the period, while areas generally east of the Mississippi River will see below average rainfall potential.

Like we touched on above, there continues to be good model agreement on a return to warmer temps for the central US and Midwest beyond the middle of next week, with this warmer air then seen possibly lingering even into the 10-15 day period, though changing runs that far out this week has our confidence in this solution low.