AM Comments September 5 2025
Good morning. Happy Friday. CBOT ag markets are quietly higher this morning but have again seen light volume and narrow trading ranges through the overnight hours as there once again was little new from a fundamental standpoint since the close at 1:20pm yesterday. For today, trader attention will be on the morning's weekly export sales update, which is usually out of the way by now, but was delayed due to the Monday holiday. Corn sales are expected to remain strong, but its the bean sales that will once again receive most of the attention, as this presents the next opportunity to see some signs of new crop Chinese business. Amid seemingly negative trade rhetoric of late we are fairly skeptical that today's the day this occurs, but there are some who feel recent purchases in the unknown category may have been China; we will see. Corn futures to start Friday are trading 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents higher. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around $2/ton and soybean oil is up around 10 points. Outside markets are trading mixed, crude oil futures are down 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 130 points and the US$ index is down 40-50 points; the S&P500 is up 5 points and the NASDAQ is up 110 points.
Today's Reports: Weekly Export Sales; Monthly Unemployment; Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls; CFTC Commitment of Traders
- Friday's delivery slate from the CME Group included 138 contracts of soybean oil, 13 contracts of rough rice, 8 contracts of KC wheat, 125 contracts of soybeans, and 3 contracts of Chicago wheat.
- This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending August 28th is expected to show old crop corn sales between (400k)-100k MTs and old crop soybean sales between (300k)-50k MTs. On the new crop, corn sales are seen between 900k-2.2 mil MTs, soybean sales are between 600k-1.6 mil MTs, and wheat sales are seen between 350k-700k MTs.
- Private US ag consultancy StoneX on Thursday released their latest corn and soybean production and yield estimates; the group now sees US national average corn yield at 186.9 bu/acre (down from 188.1 previously), but their production estimate was actually up from last month at 16.577 billion bu due to increases in acres. For soybeans, the group pegged average yield at 53.2 bu/acre, while production was seen at 4.257 billion bu; both of these figures were down slightly from last month.
- Following recent heavy rains last week across Argentina's ag belt, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange this week said that though good/excellent conditions fell 1% on the week to 98%, the rains were overall beneficial as they came ahead of key development phases. The group made no adjustments to production or planted area, and also showed corn harvest on the week at 98.5%, up from 97.2% last week.
- The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) on Friday said they now see world grain stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season at 898.7 MMTs, which is up 9.6 MMTs from their July forecast and if accurate, would be a new all-time record. The group cited higher reserves of course grains offsetting falls in wheat stocks as reason for the increase. World production is also seen at an all-time high of 2.96 bil tons, up 35.6 mil tons from July.
- Along with US census export data yesterday, Brazil also released monthly government export data, which showed the country's soybean exports in August at 9.338 MMTs, which compares to more than 12 MMTs in July and just over 8 MMTs in August of last year. Corn exports were seen at 6.849 MMTs and soybean meal exports were seen at 2.015 MMTs.
- According to a statement on the Chinese Commerce Ministry's website, China has slapped preliminary duties on pork imports from the EU, imposing duties ranging from 15.6% to 62.4%, though is unclear when the measures will go into effect. China has accused EU companies of dumping certain pork and pig byproducts and said that its domestic industry has "suffered material injury."
- According to the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending August 30th were seen at 384k tons, which was down nearly 21% from the week prior. Corn shipments at 167k tons were down 35.5% on the week and soybean shipments at 168k tons were down 8.2% on the week. STL barge freight rates increased $1.56 on the week to $20.19/short ton.
- The financial world Friday will have its attention on the monthly Non-Farm payrolls report that is due out later this morning, which is expected to show the labor market adding around 75k jobs in the month of August, while unemployment is expected to tick up from 4.2% to 4.3%.
- Not a lot new weather-wise this morning, with the models in good agreement on continued shower activity for the southern part of the Midwest through the weekend and also in the far north in MI/WI, while the bulk of the Corn belt stays mostly dry. Temperatures will remain mostly below average, before warmer air is seen moving back in by the end of the next week.
- Have a good weekend!