Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• December Corn (CZ): $4.19 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents
• March Corn (CH): $4.37 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents
• December/March Spread (CZ/CH): -17 3/4, up 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly ethanol report from the EIA for the week ending August 29th (the last of this marketing year) showed average daily production in the week at 1.075 mil bbls/day, which was up roughly half a percent from both last week and the same week last year.

• Ethanol stocks in the week were seen at 22.564 mil bbls, which was up just fractionally from last week but down 4.3% from the same week last year.

• We estimate corn usage in the week at 106.2 mil bu, which brings our cumulative marketing year use figure to 5.512 bil bu. This compares to 5.496 bil bu last year, and the USDA's full marketing year forecast of 5.470 bil bu.

• Weekly drought monitor data, released this morning, continues to show a rather rapid expansion in drought conditions across the Midwest, with 345 of the US corn area now in D0-D4 drought, up from 21% last week and the highest level since the week of July 8th earlier this summer.

• The US census bureau released updated monthly export data this morning for the month of July, which showed corn exports in the month at 245 mil bu, which was down from the 266 mil bu seen in June and compares to the USDA's export inspection figure for the month of 201 mil bu. Cumulative census exports with one month of marketing year data left are nearly 180 mil bu more than the USDA's figure.

Summary:

Like yesterday, corn futures started the day lower and ended the day higher and did little else of note in between. Ethanol production data for the year was slightly below the USDA's initial estimate for the season last May, but was still strong otherwise and along with exports, continues to illustrate a fairly strong demand picture. Aside from this, there wasn't a whole lot else of note in the space for Thursday, as continues to be slow ahead of the start of harvest.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• November Soybeans (SX): $10.33, up 1 1/2 cents
• January Soybeans (SF): $10.51 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents
• October Soybean Meal (MV): $280.10, up $2.50/ton
• October Soybean Oil (LV): 51.51, up 0.07 cents/lb
• November/January Spread (SX/SF): -18 1/2, down 1/2 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Census soybean exports for the month of July were seen at 64.3 mil bu, which is up from the 55.1 mil bu figure seen in June and compares to the USDA's inspection figure for the month of 58.1 mil bu. Cumulative census exports through July are no 46.4 mil bu ahead of the USDA's inspection figure.

• Drought monitor data released this morning showed 46% of the US soybean area in D0-D4 drought conditions, up from 29% last week and at the highest level since the week of May 20th earlier this year.

• October soybean oil futures filled an open chart-gap today from the announcement of increased renewable volume obligations by the US EPA in mid-June.

Summary:

Like corn, there was a lack of excitement in the soy complex on Thursday with a 0.9% move in the meal market being the biggest talking point for the day. Tomorrow brings about another weekly export sales report, where traders will be anxiously waiting to see if any China business shows up this week, with there being some ideas that recent new crop purchases in the unknown category may in fact be China. We are skeptical of this and would assume Beijing's purchases on the books will be the same at the end of the day tomorrow as they are today, but one can hope.

? Prices:

• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.19 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents; new contract low at 5.14 1/2
• March Chicago Wheat (WH): $5.36, down 2 1/4 cents; new contract low at 5.31 1/2
• December/March Spread (WZ/WH): -17 3/4, up 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Census wheat exports in July were seen at 84.7 mil bu, which was up from the 63.2 mil bu reported for the month of June and compares to the USDA's inspection figure for the month of 79.1 mil bu. Cumulative census exports through the first two months of the marketing year now stand at 147.9 mil bu, which is 4.2 mil bu ahead of the USDA's figure.

Summary:

Chicago and KC wheat futures both fell to another round of new contract lows on Thursday, as there appears to be no end in sight at this point for declining values that have been in a downtrend for the better part of 2025. World exports have remained slow and until values fall low enough to spur some sort of demand, we see the September seasonal bottom having a hard time forming.

In Other News

• Livestock markets traded mixed Thursday, with cattle closing lower for a third straight session this week:
• October live cattle: $236.95, down $1.37
• October feeder cattle: $358.95, down $2.55
• October lean hogs: $95.02, up $1.20; inside day higher

• Outside markets saw more mixed trade throughout the day on Thursday:
• Crude oil futures: down around 70 cents/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is up 360 points, the S&P500 index is up 40 points, and the NASDAQ is up 180 points
• US $ Index: up 15-20 points

• EIA also updated petroleum stocks data in this morning's weekly report:
• Crude Oil Stocks - up 2.415 mil bbls to 420.707 mil bbls
• Gasoline Stocks - down 3.795 mil bbls to 218.539 mil bbls
• Distillate Stocks - up 1.681 mil bbls to 115.923 mil bbls
• Implied gasoline demand in the week was estimated at 9.117 mil bbls/day, compared to 9.240 mil last week and 8.938 mil in the same week last year.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Light/scattered precip has continued to impact the eastern Corn Belt throughout the day as a cold front continues to work its way south and east, but there is otherwise not a lot new in the forecast this afternoon for the rest of the week. Additional frontal boundaries the next several days have the possibility to provide more precip to the Midwest, but totals will be generally light and scattered.

• Daytime highs look to be the coldest through the Midwest and central part of the US tomorrow, but will then remain mostly below average into the middle/back half of next week.

? Extended Forecast:

• Precip maps for the week of September 12th-18th trended drier again today, are now see well below normal precip anomalies for the Midwest and most of the eastern Midwest in the period, while better rainfall chances are seen in the northwest and northern tier of the US.

• Towards the end of next week, there is good model agreement this afternoon on a slight warm up back to more seasonally average or slightly above average temps. The GFS is warmer than the EU model, but both see a warm up coming at some point in the next 5-10 days.