AM Comments September 3 2025

Posted on Sep 03 at 06:39

Good morning. Grain and soy markets are lightly mixed to start Wednesday trade at the CBOT, with all three having narrow ranges so far in the overnight session. Yesterday afternoon's crop progress report showed a slightly bigger dip than was expected in soybean conditions, but this has been unable to lift the market so far to this point in the morning. Meanwhile, crude oil futures are giving back most of what they gained yesterday and are down over a dollar/bbl, which is likely not helping the corn market. That said, this continues to be mostly marginal information to the markets, as traders are pretty much concerned about one thing and one thing only and that is crop size. China is the wildcard in all this, but absent a deal with them, a sizeable price move in either direction seems unlikely until more is known about yields and bushels. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading unchanged to a penny lower also, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny higher. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is down 40-50 points. Outside markets are also trading mixed to start the day, with crude oil down $1.30/bbl, the Dow Jones index unchanged, and the US$ index down 5-10 points; the S&P500 is up 30 points and the NASDAQ is up 160 points. Gold futures again made new all-time highs overnight.

 

Today's Reports: Monthly JOLTs Jobs Data; API Energy Stocks

 

  • The delivery slate for Wednesday was active again, with the CME Group overnight assigning 385 contracts of soybean oil for delivery, along with 70 contracts of rough rice, 18 contracts of KC wheat, 3 contracts of oats, 586 contracts of soybeans, and 34 contracts of Chicago wheat.

 

  • USDA released updated monthly crush data for both corn and soybeans after the close on Tuesday; the reports showed US soybean crush in the month of July at 205 mil bu, while soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month were seen at 1.874 bil lbs. On the corn side, corn used for ethanol in July was seen at 456 mil bu, while total corn consumption for all uses in the month totaled 506 mil bu. To view the Fats and Oils report, please click here; and to view the Grain Crushings report, please click here.

 

  • Also out yesterday afternoon was weekly crop progress data for the week ending Sunday, August 31st, which showed corn conditions in the G/EX category in the week at 69%, which was down 2% from the week prior. At the state level, OH was the biggest loser on the week, falling 7% in the category, while IL and KY were both down 6%. PA saw an increase of 6% on the week, while ND was up 4% and MI was up 2%. On the progress side, 90% of the crop is in the dough stage, while 58% of the crop is dented and 15% of the crop is mature.

 

  • For soybeans, G/EX conditions on the week fell 4% to 65%; at the state level, KY was down 14% on the week, while NC was down 11%, OH was down 8%, TN was down 7%, MO was down 6%, and IL was down 5%. The only improvements on the week were 1 point increases in MN, SD and WI. On the progress side, 94% of the crop is setting pods and 11% of the crop is dropping leaves.

 

  • The only wheat item for the week was spring wheat harvest progress, which came in at 72%, which compares to 53% last week and 67% last year. To view the full report from the USDA, please click here.

 

  • Government officials from Australia said on Tuesday that a framework agreement to restart canola exports from the country to China was close to being finalized, saying "A phytosanitary framework addressing China's concerns is near completion, which will pave the way for five trail shipments." The comments come after three trial shipments were also announced earlier this summer following the implementation of new trade duties from China on Canadian supplies.

 

  • Private Black Sea crop analyst SovEcon again raised their estimate of Russia's 2025/26 wheat exports by 0.4 MMTs to 43.7 MMTs, citing further improvements in yields. However, the group also expressed caution regarding further increases due to the pace from the first two months of the year (July and August) being down nearly 40% from the same period last year. The group also cited increasing competition from Argentina and Australia as a reason that exports may remain slow in the short term.

 

  • Russian Ag Minister Oksana Lut, who is also part of Putin's delegation to China this week, said yesterday that no progress had been made on efforts to increase wheat exports from Russia to China due to Beijing's reluctance to accept Russian winter wheat. Russia currently exports some spring wheat to China, but the bulk of Russia's exportable supplies are winter wheat. Lut was quoted as saying, "It is exactly the same wheat as spring wheat, and it is subject to the same phytosanitary requirements regarding the absence of quarantine organisms."

 

  • The comments seemingly contradict rhetoric coming from other sources regarding the talks, which have been described as positive and upbeat. There have also been reports that the two sides reached agreements on a new energy pipeline, but details regarding this matter have been scarce and a bit convoluted.

 

  • Data released from the European Commission shows EU soft wheat exports in the marketing year started July 1 have totaled roughly 2.57 MMTs through the end of August, which compares to 4.6 MMTs through the same period last year. The commission continues to note that export data is incomplete due to ongoing technical issues.

 

  • Overnight weather forecasts trended marginally drier through the end of the week in the central Corn Belt, with areas to both the south and north are expected to pick up anywhere from a couple tenths to 2" in some small, localized regions. As a cold front moves through the Midwest today/tonight, most of the region will see light shower potential but totals will be variable and likely won't amount to more than a tenth or two.

 

  • Temperature outlooks in the 10-15 day period trended warmer again overnight, which is in-line with what some of the longer range models have been forecasting for mid/late-September. The EU model has also kept notable warmth present across most of Canada now in the 10-15 day period, which was not there earlier this week. Things will stay cool east of the Rockies in the meantime, but its late month that will attract the most attention from a forecast standpoint over the next week or so.