Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $3.87 1/4, up 7 1/4 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.11 3/4, up 7 3/4 cents
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -24 1/2, down 1/2 cent; new contract low at -24 1/2

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending August 14th showed a great week of new crop corn sales, with the total of 2.860 MMTs well above trade expectations. Featured buyers in the week were Mexico (749,000 MTs), Korea (201,000 MTs), Japan (187,900 MTs), and Spain (187,000 MTs); unknown destinations in the week were buyers of 949,400 MTs.

• New crop corn export commitments now stand at a four-year high of 16.685 MMTs, with 4.354 MMTs of this currently in the unknown category. Excluding China, new crop sales are the highest since at least 2000 and are nearly 60% above the next closest year. Old crop sales in the week totaled a negative 27k MTs, which was within trade expectations and seasonally normal.

• Day four of the Pro Farmer crop tour seemed to echo the "good but not great" sentiment mostly used to describe findings through the first three days. Yield potential is good, but rampant disease pressure has likely trimmed the top end off crops in eastern IA and MN according to scouts on social media. The tour will release state yields for IA and MN tonight, and will release full yield estimates for the US tomorrow.

Summary:

New crop corn futures are generally back to where they started the month at as of this afternoon, as fund short covering was able to lift values to solid gains with just one trading session left before the weekend. A strong export sales report got the ball rolling initially this morning, with spill-over buying the from soybean complex then able to help the market sustain the momentum into the end of the day. Key now ahead of the weekend break will be whether today's gains can be sustained or if the market hits overhead resistance and does a bit of backing and filling tomorrow.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• September Soybeans (SU): $10.34 1/2, up 19 1/2 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.56, up 20 cents
• September Soybean Meal (MU): $296.80, up $4.80/ton
• September Soybean Oil (LU): 53.64, up 2.44 cents/lb; outside day higher
• September/November Spread (SU/SX): -21 1/2, down 1/2 cent; new contract low at -22

? Market Headlines:

• Weekly export sales this morning in the week ending August 14th totaled 1.143 MMTs in the new crop and (6k) MTs in the old crop. On the new crop, featured buyers were Mexico (120,100 MTs), and Spain (106,000 MTs), while unknown destinations bought 645k MTs in the week. Cumulative new crop sales now stand at 5.856 MMTs, which is down 22% from the same week last year and at the lowest level since 2019.

• Aside from the SRE rumors, soybeans also saw strength on Thursday from a Fox News report that Treasury Secretary Bessent had responded to a recent letter from the American soybean Association highlighting the plight soybean farmers face due to a lack of Chinese business by saying that negotiations are going well and that China had pledged to "soon" begin purchases of US beans.

• Soybean potential through four days of the Pro Farmer crop tour continues to be better than recent years, with scouts in eastern IA and MN on Thursday finding average pod counts that were well above both last year and the three-year averages. That said, sudden death was again present in some of the fields which gave scouts concern for how the crops might finish over the next few weeks.

Summary:

Rumors ran rampant today in the soybean market, with buying in the space seen as a result of both China and biofuel policy rumors. To the Fox News story regarding China, we would urge a bit of caution due to the fact that Trump and his trade team have said they were close to a deal with China for what seems like the bulk of the summer and we still don't have one. Bessent may be accurate and some sort of agreement may be in the works, but we continue to find it highly unlikely that what results is anything like the previously agreed to Phase One deal. We've talked about it before, but China has spent the better part of five years since that time increasing investment in infrastructure in South America and forming relationships with exporters there; it would seem very unlikely that they just abandon all this because Trump says to.

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.07, up 1 1/2 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.29 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -22 3/4, unchanged

? Market Headlines:

• Wheat sales in this morning's weekly export sales report totaled 520k MTs in the week ending August 14th, which was at the lower end of trade expectations. Featured buyers in the week were Mexico (119,500 MTs), Korea (90,500 MTs), and Thailand (66,000 MTs); unknown destinations in the week bought 80,400 MTs. Outstanding cumulative sales at 6.929 MMTs are up 38% from last year and are the highest since at least 2018.

Summary:

Wheat futures saw mixed closes on Thursday, as the strength in the rest of the ag space was unable to lift values here. Aside from export info, the news cycle for wheat remains slow and mostly global, with crop sizes in Russia and the Black Sea being about the only regular talking points. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Exchange reported that 11% of the country's crop was experiencing stress from too much moisture, but added that 97% of the crop was rated either good or excellent.

In Other News

• Livestock markets saw quieter days on Thursday, though feeders again pushed out to new contract highs:
• October live cattle: $234.72, down 12 cents; inside day higher
• September feeder cattle: $358.02, down 7 cents; new contract high at $359.00
• October lean hogs: $89.92, down 2 cents; inside day lower

• Outside markets again traded mostly mixed on Thursday:
• Crude oil futures: up 60-70 cents/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 160 points, the S&P500 index is down 30 points, and the NASDAQ is down 110 points
• US $ Index: up 40-50 points

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Mid-day weather runs on Thursday were similar to recent days through the end of the week and into the weekend, with just limited rainfall seen for the Cron Belt into next week. The southwest looks to see good rains beginning early next week, while additional moisture is also seen through the southeast and areas along the Gulf Coast.

• Temperatures will continue cooling into the end of the week and through the weekend, with daytime highs topping out in the upper 60's across a wide swath of the northern Corn Belt by Sunday. Though it seems early to talk about, there is currently no concern of early season frost risk due to this cold, with nighttime lows not expected to dip below the low 40's.

? Extended Forecast:

• NOAA released new updated seasonal forecasts on Thursday, and they show the odds of above normal warmth lingering into the Sep/Oct timeframe at above average. On the precip side, drought conditions are expected to continue in the southwest, while the Midwest sees equal chances at above or below average precip.