AM Comments August 21 2025
Good morning. Ag markets at the CBOT are trading much like how they ended Wednesday this morning, with follow through buying being seen in the wheat market, more spread activity being seen in the product markets, and corn and beans each trading choppy and near unchanged. Though temperatures are going to feel rather fall-like by the middle of next week, markets seem to be entrenched in the dog days of summer, as there is just little interest in anything besides crop sizes and China. And neither is a situation that is likely to see updates on any sort of regular basis, which has produced the wait-and-see trading environment that has been noticeable the last week or two. Corn futures to start Thursday morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents higher also, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-6 cents higher. Products are once again mixed, with soybean meal down around $1/ton and soybean oil up 20-30 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are up 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 140 points, and the US$ index is up 10-15 points; the S&P500 is down 10 points and the NASDAQ is down 40 points.
Today's Reports: Weekly Export Sales; Weekly Jobless Claims
- This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending August 14th is expected to show old crop corn sales in a range of (100k)-300k MTs, while old crop soybean sales are seen between (300k)-300k MTs. For new crop, corn sales are seen between 900k-2.0 mil MTs, soybean sales are seen between 400k-1.0 mil MTs, and wheat sales are seen between 500k-800k MTs.
- USDA will release updated monthly cattle on feed data for the month of August tomorrow afternoon after the markets close; according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, traders see the report showing the US feedlot herd as of August 1 at 10.883 mil head, which would be down 2% from last year. Placements in July are seen down 9% from last year at 1.548 mil head, while marketings in the month are seen down 6% from last year at 1.747 mil head.
- Day three of the Pro Farmer crop tour found similarly strong results to the first two days yesterday in IL and western IA. Scouts on the eastern leg pegged IL corn yield at 199.57 bu/acre, which compares to 204.14 last year and the three-year average of 196.19. Soybean pod counts in the state averaged 1,479.22, which compares to 1,419.11 last year and the three-year average of 1,313.14. Of note, this is the highest figure for IL soybean pod counts since at least 2003.
- Scouts on the western leg of the tour released estimates for individual districts in western IA yesterday, with updates for the full states expected later this afternoon. Estimates for both crops were all well above the three-year averages, though scouts did continue to mention the presence of southern rust in the corn crop and also sudden death syndrome in soybeans, which one scout, who also farms in the area, said could've cut his soybean yields by as much as 10%.
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Wednesday that they see corn planted area in Argentina in the 2025/26 season up nearly 10% from 2024/25 at roughly 7.8 million hectares, which if realized, would be the country's second highest planted area figure ever, behind only 2023/24 when 8.4 million hectares were planted. The group cited abundant rains and good soil moisture levels as reason for the increases. Corn planting in Argentina usually starts in September.
- Following reports of a diversion of a soybean meal cargo from Argentina destined for China on Wednesday, spokespeople from Bunge said the cargo was now destined for Vietnam and the shift was at the request of the importer (China). Spokespeople also mentioned that the purchase contract had verbiage in it to allow for the shift, despite the move being somewhat uncommon.
- Progress has seemingly stalled on peace talks between Russia and Ukraine following meetings with US President Trump earlier this week, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday dismissing European diplomacy, and added that a face-to-face meeting between Putin and Zelensky would only occur if Ukraine accepted Russia's terms, and this has been more or less a non starter to this point from Ukraine's side. It is unclear today what the next steps in the process are, with it seeming that a Trump-Putin-Zelensky meeting is going to have to occur at some point.
- In the financial world, attention for the rest of the week will be mostly on the US Fed's annual Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak on Friday. The comments will come just days after minutes from the group's latest policy meeting showed an almost unanimous decision to hold rates steady at their last FOMC meeting in July, and also as the odds of a September cut have been declining in recent days.
- The EU model's precip forecast through the rest of the week and into the weekend trended marginally drier over the last 24 hours in the north and the northwest, but otherwise was little changed from previous days this week and continues to offer a mostly cool and dry forecast for the bulk of the Corn Belt into the end of the month. Rains look to fill in through the south and the southwest next week, but the models today have this precip missing the Midwest.
- Then in the week two period, the EU's AI model is continuing to run noticeably wetter than either the EU or the GFS ensemble models for the first week of September in the Midwest, but is drier in the south/southwest than the other two. Amid a not-so-great track record for the AI model this summer, we see the ensemble runs as the more probable outcome though our confidence in all three is not high. Then on temperatures, the GFS 10-15 day outlook trended back cooler this morning, with there again now being now sign of a return of heat into September 5th.