AM Comments August 20 2025
Good morning. Choppy trade at the CBOT looks to continue through at least the early part of the session on Wednesday as the ag space is quiet and generally near unchanged to start the day. Ongoing spread activity in the products has again been featured overnight, with funds presumably exiting some of their short meal/long oil positions amid the continued rumors of possible small refinery exemptions. Otherwise, our best bet is that price action today follows a similar pattern to yesterday and works sideways to lower throughout the day; fund traders seem to already be thoroughly entrenched in hurry-up-and-wait mode and unless Trump announces a trade deal with China sometime in the next few weeks, this likely continues until the onset of harvest in middle/late September. Corn futures to start Wednesday are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower also, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $1-2/ton and soybean oil is down 20-30 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are up 70-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 20 points and the US$ index is up 5-10 points; the S&P500 is down 5 points and the NASDAQ is down 50 points.
Today's Reports: EIA Weekly Ethanol Production/Energy Stocks
- This morning's weekly ethanol report from the EIA for the week ending August 15th is expected to show daily average production in the week between 1.040-1.087 mil bbls/day, while stocks in the week are seen between 22.349-23.800 mil bbls.
- Despite intraday updates throughout the day on Tuesday that seemed to indicate worse results than day one from the Pro Farmer crop tour, state yield estimates and pod counts for NE and IN on day two still ended up similarly good to what was found on Monday. Starting in the west, the group pegged NE corn yield at 179.5 bu/acre, which compares to 173.3 last year and the three-year average of 166.3. Pod counts in the state averaged 1,348.3, which compares to 1,172.5 last year and the three-year average of 1,132.1.
- In the east, scouts pegged IN corn yield at 193.8 bu/acre, which compares to 187.5 last year and the three-year average of 182.1. Of note, scouts did mention a significant amount of variability in the crop, as well as noticeable disease pressures. Soybean pod counts in the state averaged 1,376.6, which compares to 1,409 last year and the three-year average of 1,295.
- Sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday that Bunge Global SA had diverted a cargo of soybean meal intended for China to another destination in southeast Asia due to concerns that it might fail to meet Chinese quality specs. Sources indicated that Bunge intended to send China a separate cargo from Argentina at a later date, though failed to give any further details. Details on exactly how the diversion came about were also lacking this morning, with it being uncommon for ships to change destinations while already in transit.
- Country-specific import data out of China for the month of July showed the country's soybean imports from Brazil totaled 10.39 MMTs in the month, which was up nearly 14% from July of last year. Imports from the US, meanwhile, were down nearly 12% from July of last year at just 420,874 MTs. Total Chinese soybean imports in July were seen at 11.67 MMTs, which was a new record for the month.
- Ukraine's grain export season has continued to see slow progress so far in the early going, with ag ministry data on Wednesday showing total exports at just 3.1 MMTs, which is down more than 50% from the same period last year. Wheat exports at 1.73 MMTs are down 44% from last year and corn exports at 841k MTs are down 62% from last year.
- Staying in the Black Sea region, industry sources are reporting that Russian grain exports out of the port of Kavkaz, which is on the Black Sea, are down significantly this month due to new ship entry and inspection requirements that have notably hindered logistics. Last year, the port accounted for nearly a quarter of all Russian seaborn grain exports.
- A Tuesday meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi seemed to go well according to sources familiar, with the two sides agreeing to restart dialogue across a number of fields with an effort towards stabilizing relations. India's Foreign Ministry added that the two sides would resume direct flight connectivity "at the earliest" and would also reopen trade at three designated trading points.
- Cooler air is beginning to work its way into the Midwest this morning, with last night's lows noticeably cooler than recent days this week. As has been advertised all week, this trend is expected to then continue into the end of the week, with highs by Saturday/Sunday in the northern Corn Belt failing to reach the 70 degree mark as far south as central SD and southern MN. Then in the extended period, models are in good agreement on this patter lingering for a bit, with there currently being no sign of heat returning to the region at least through September 4th.
- On the precip side, just light/scattered thunderstorm activity is expected in parts of the northern Corn Belt through the end of the week, while the bulk of the Midwest will see limited rainfall potential. Like the temperature outlook, this pattern is then also expected to linger, with better rains filling-in through the southwest next week but failing to reach the Corn Belt for the most part. The cooler air will help, but areas in the eastern Corn Belt have turned dry and could use a rain.