Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $3.79 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.03 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents; inside day lower
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -23 3/4, down 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Crop scouts on day two of the Pro Farmer crop tour, via reports on social media, have indicated corn yields in the eastern leg (IN and IL) that are similar if not above last year, but have also added there is a high degree of variability and also a fairly high amount of disease pressure present.

• In the west, scouts expressed minor disappointment regarding NE corn yields after seeing stellar potential in SD yesterday, with one scout indicating samples through 9 stops on her route were down 3% from last year but still up 10% from the sample average in 2023. Pro Farmer will release state yield estimates for NE and IN later this evening.

Summary:

Steady pressure was seen throughout the day in the corn market on Tuesday, as the Pro Farmer crop tour isn't exactly disagreeing with what the USDA has printed in terms of state corn yields. The group has mentioned concerns from disease pressure including southern rust and tar spot, but agronomists have been quick to comment throughout the day today that due to the growth stage of the crop, effects from these issues should be short-lived going forward. In any case, we find it important to continue to reiterate that the tour is more likely to find information that will help answer the question of exactly how big is big as opposed to the question of whether or not the USDA knows what they're talking about, which has been the case since before it started yesterday. The 2025/26 US corn crop is going to be big; the question everyone wants an answer to is how big.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• September Soybeans (SU): $10.13, down 7 3/4 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.33 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents
• September Soybean Meal (MU): $287.40, up $7.00/ton
• September Soybean Oil (LU): 51.68, down 1.59 cents/lb
• September/November Spread (SU/SX): -20 3/4, down 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• USDA again issued a flash sales announcement this morning for the second day in a row this week; private exporters reported sales of 228,606 MTs of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2025/26 marketing year. This is the first flash sale of soybeans since July 25th.

• Soybean oil futures traded to sharp losses on Tuesday on speculative selling based on the announced Australian canola sale to China this morning, and also on continued pressure via potential SRE news sooner than later.

• There weren't a lot of soybean reports from scouts on the Pro Farmer crop tour today, but what was available on social media indicated disappointment in the crop on the western leg, with one scout indicating pod counts down more than 20% from the same route sampled last year.

• Reuters reported late in the day yesterday that Brazil's competition authority, CADE, has given traders 10 days to suspend a soy moratorium program or face hefty fines following a ruling earlier this week. The private pact, which has been in place since the early 2000's, was set up to protect the Amazon rainforest and essentially barred soybean traders and shippers from buying beans from farmers who had recently cleared land in that area.

Summary:

Chinese pricing of South American soybean cargoes had the market near unchanged at the pause this morning but selling then emerged on the re-open to drive values lower throughout the session. The cool-off in August temperatures for the back half of the month, along with timely rains across the northern portion of the Midwest, has limited the upside in prices a bit this week following the sharp short-covering run-up that was had last week, with fund traders likely closer to net-even now after recently being short. Pressure in the bean oil market also didn't help things on Tuesday, as ongoing policy discussion and fears over another round of small refinery exemptions continued to add selling to this market.

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $4.98 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents; new contract low at 4.97 1/2
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.21 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents; new contract low at 5.19 1/2
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -22 3/4, down 1/2 cent

? Market Headlines:

• We touched on this briefly this morning, but cash sources reported on Monday that Egypt's state grain buyer has agreed to buy at least 200k MTs of French wheat in private deals with exporters. Other sources say the purchases could've totaled upwards of 400k MTs with as many 7 panamax vessels being booked in the last 2 weeks.

• The sources added that Egypt also purchased several smaller 30,000 ton shipments from both Ukraine and Romania. In an average year, Egypt's state grain buyer will be responsible for importing around 5 MMTs of the roughly 12 MMTs the country usually imports in total.

Summary:

Another round of new contract lows in the wheat market for Tuesday, as there simply continues to be little to nothing to get buyers interested. Some in the space are beginning to wonder how the large corn crops in TX/KS/OK are going to effect wheat feeding in the coming season, with one group mentioning that USDA's production estimates for those three states are currently up a combined 169 mil bu from last year, which is more than the total amount of feed usage USDA has allocated currently on the wheat balance sheet. This, along with further weakening global cash prices, has likely contributed to the ongoing pressure in US markets.

In Other News

• Livestock markets had a slightly quieter day of trade on Tuesday, though feeders again popped to new contract highs:
• October live cattle: $231.35, up 17 cents
• September feeder cattle: $352.42, up $1.50; new contract high at $354.55
• October lean hogs: $90.15, up 2 cents

• Outside markets saw mixed price action for a second straight day on Tuesday:
• Crude oil futures: down 70-90 cents/bbl; inside day lower
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 10 points, the S&P500 index is down 40 points, and the NASDAQ is down 330 points
• US $ Index: up 5-10 points

• President Trump on Tuesday, speaking at the White House, said the next steps to end the war in Ukraine would include a meeting between President Putin and President Zelensky, with that meeting then being followed by a trilateral meeting that would include both of them along with President Trump.
• While all accounts seem to again portray the meeting as progressive and constructive, it would appear that neither the Russians or the Ukrainians had changed opinions much if at all on the key issues of land swaps, security guarantees and sanctions, leaving it unclear as to exactly where things go from here.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• The EU model's five-day precip anomaly map is above, and shows ongoing limited rainfall potential for most of the Corn Belt the rest of this week and into the weekend aside from a small area in the Dakotas/MN where rains have already been falling previously this week.

• Temperature forecasts continue to show an exit of most of the extreme heat seen to end last week and the first part of this week by Friday/Saturday, with well below average daytime highs to then follow into next week and the end of the month.

? Extended Forecast:

• In the week two period, models have continued to trend wetter this week in the west and southwest, with there being good agreement between both the EU and the GFS models and also the CPC's outlook for the period. The Midwest though, especially the eastern portion, looks to continue holding in a drier pattern.

• Like we mentioned this morning, still nothing new on the extended range temperature outlook, as both the EU and GFS continue to be in good agreement on well below normal air temps staying in place at least into the first few days of September.