AM Comments August 19 2025

Posted on Aug 19 at 07:18

Good morning. Overnight trade to start Tuesday has been quiet for the most part, with all three of corn, soybeans and wheat trading slightly lower this morning in fairly light volume. Spread activity in the product markets has been a noted feature, but otherwise, trade action today looks to be similar to yesterday on the idea that fund managers are seemingly comfortable with their positions for now following the new fundamental data last week, and also that they won't likely make any major position changes until there is more solid evidence on what US crop yields will be this fall. That means choppy trade will probably linger in the meantime, with neither the bulls or the bears able to sustain a move in either direction for more than a few days. Corn futures to start Tuesday morning are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $3-4/ton and soybean oil is down 50-60 points. Outside markets are mostly lower this morning, crude oil futures are down 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 60 points and the US$ index is down 10-15 points; the S&P500 is down 5 points and the NASDAQ is down 40 points.

 

Today's Reports: API Energy Stocks

 

• Yesterday afternoon's weekly crop progress update once again had little of note, with corn and soybean conditions continuing to run at the high end of the recent range and doing little to counter the USDA's current lofty estimate. Corn conditions in the G/EX category came in at 71%, which was down 1% from last week. At the state level, KY fell 6%, TX fell 4%, and CO and MI each fell 3%; NC was up 5%, while MO was up 2% and NE and WI were each up 1%.

 

• Soybean conditions in the G/EX category were steady on the week at 68%. At the state level, KY and MS were each down 6%, while LA and TN were down 4%, AR was down 3%, and OH was down 2%; NE and NC were each up 4% on the week, while IL and MI were up 3% and SD was up 2%.

 

• Progress-wise, 72% of the corn crop has reached the dough stage which matches last year, while 27% of the crop is dented compared to 28% last year and 3% of the crop is mature compared to 4% last year. For soybeans, 82% of the crop is setting pods compared to 80% last year.

 

• For wheat, winter wheat harvest is on the home stretch, having reached 94% complete this week, while spring wheat harvest advanced another 20% on the week to now 36% complete. Spring wheat conditions in the G/EX category were up 1% on the week to 50% G/EX. To view the full report from the USDA, please click here.

 

• Scouts from the Pro Farmer crop tour on Monday pegged corn yields in South Dakota at 174.2 bu/acre based on samples from 83 fields; the figure compares to 156.5 seen last year and the three-year average of 144.1. For soybeans, pod counts in the state averaged 1,188.5 in a 3x3 square, which compares to 1,025.9 last year and the three-year average of 970.1.

 

• Scouts on the tour's eastern leg pegged corn yields in Ohio at 185.7 bu/acre based on samples from 116 fields, which compares to 183.3 last year and the three-year average of 181.1. Soybean pod counts in the state averaged 1,287.3 pods in a 3x3 square, compared to 1,229.9 last year and the three-year average of 1,204.8.

 

• Cash sources told Reuters on Tuesday that China's state-run grain buyer, COFCO, had booked a cargo of roughly 50,000 MTs of new crop Australian canola, which would mark the first such purchase since a de facto ban in 2020 due to phytosanitary concerns. It is unclear whether this shipment is part of the five trail cargoes that had been rumored earlier this summer, though the news comes just days after China's imposition of new trade duties on canola shipments from Canada.

 

• Private Russian ag consultancy IKAR on Monday raised their estimate of Russia's 2025 wheat production to 85.5 MMTs from 84.5 MMTs previously, citing ongoing yield improvements in the country's central growing regions. The group also raised its export forecast from 41.5 MMTs previously to 42.5 MMTs.

 

• Private South American ag consultancy AgRural on Monday pegged safrinha corn harvest in Brazil's center-south at 94%, which continues to lag last year. The same group, meanwhile, also pegged 2025/26 summer corn planting in the region at 1.6%, which is ahead of last year's 0.1% completion figure as of the same day.

 

• Cash sources reported on Monday that Egypt's state grain buyer agreed to purchase at least 200k MTs of French wheat, as well as several 30,000 ton cargoes from Ukraine and Romania in private deals with exporters. Some rumors have the purchases from France totaling upwards of 400k MTs, with at least one vessel expected to ship in early September.

 

• In non market-related ag news from Monday, the USDA announced that would no longer be supporting solar and wind projects on productive US farmland, with secretary Brooke Rollins posting on X that "Millions of acres of prime farmland is left unusable so Green New Deal subsidized solar panels can be built." Data shows the USDA has provided more than $2 bil for renewable energy projects.

 

• White House discussions on Monday between President Trump and President Zelensky, along with several other European leaders, didn't seem to yield any immediate progress on an end to the war in Ukraine, but were described as constructive by those familiar. Trump again pledged western security in any sort of agreement, while Zelensky seemed to continue pushing back on the idea that Russia could walk away with Ukrainian territory. German Chancellor Merz said Zelensky and Putin would be meeting within the next two weeks, but no further details of a subsequent meeting were given.

 

• Thunderstorms continued to roll across parts of the central and upper Midwest through the day on Monday, with the remnants of these systems working through the eastern regions and into the northeast this morning. As these storms exit, models show a few days of drier activity for the Midwest then into the back half of the week, before thunderstorms again become active in the Dakotas/MN the back half of the week and into the weekend.

 

• Heat for areas east of the Rockies will likely linger for another 48 hours or so, before cooler Canadian air is able to work its way south by the end of the week and weekend, significantly dropping daytime highs. Once this shift occurs, there is still no evidence of it being a short-lived event, as outlooks from both the EU and the GFS models in the 10-15 day period see well below average air temps remaining in place, while heat stays confined mostly to the northwest and Canada.