Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $3.83, down 3/4 cent
• December Corn (CZ): $4.06 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -23 1/2, down 2 cents

? Market Headlines:

• USDA this morning reported a daily sales flash of 124,000 MTs of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/26 marketing year.

• Weekly corn export inspections in the week ending August 14th totaled 1.051 MMTs, which was within trade expectations and down 31% from last week; cumulative inspections for the marketing year have now reached 64.220 MMTs, which is up 28% from last year.

• Pro Farmer will give updated corn yield and soybean pod count estimates for South Dakota and Ohio later this evening, but social media reports from day one of the tour would seem to indicate good to great yield potential so far in the west, while some evidence of pollination issues likely due to heat were showing up in the east.

Summary:

Corn futures saw mixed closes to start the week on Monday, with old crop ending the day lower and new crop finishing higher on what was an otherwise relatively quiet session. Talk surrounding the Pro Farmer crop tour dominated a lot of the market chatter and more or less corroborated what the USDA printed last week, with scouts on the western leg finding yield potential that was at least 20% better than in the same fields last year and saying in comments that soil moisture levels were good. Like we mentioned above, eastern leg scouts didn't see quite as good of potential when compared last year in some cases, but in others found potential that was actually better than last year, which will make this evening's state level estimates interesting.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• September Soybeans (SU): $10.20 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.41 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents
• September Soybean Meal (MU): $280.40, down $3.00/ton
• September Soybean Oil (LU): 53.27, up 0.09 cents/lb
• September/November Spread (SU/SX): -20 1/2, down 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly export inspections report for the week ending August 14th showed soybean inspections in the week at 473,605 MTs, which was down 13% from last week. Cumulative inspections in the marketing year now stand at 48.868 MMTs, which is up 12% from last year.

• There was increasing chatter on social media today regarding a possible government decision on pending small refinery exemptions (SREs) that have been hanging over the soybean oil market for many months now. Sources indicated that all of the pending cases had been moved to an individual D.C. Circuit court, which seemingly means we could see a decision sooner than later.

• As a reminder, the SREs are the pending issue with an elevated renewable volume mandate (RVO), as these exemptions would allow smaller refiners to get around the elevated blend obligations and thereby lessen the amount of renewable fuel that was required to be produced. SRE's were a hallmark of Trump's first administration, which has some in the industry concerned over a possible repeat this time around.

• Similar to the corn commentary out of the Pro Farmer crop tour, scouts in South Dakota on the tour's western leg are finding pod counts that are some 5-10% higher than last year for the most part, while eastern areas somewhat lag due primarily to too much heat and a lack of moisture.

Summary:

Soybean futures closed marginally lower on Monday as spread activity in the product markets couldn't provide influence to the beans in either direction throughout the day. With President Trump's focus back on the Russia/Ukraine war this week and not on trade relationships or tariffs, the focus of the soybean trader has shifted back to supply for the time being, with focus Monday almost entirely on the host of private crop tours, including Pro Farmer, that kicked off either today or over the weekend. From a price standpoint, we see cash beans at $10 as a fairly large hurdle in the short term due to the farmer being undersold and this being a psychologically friendly number to try and add some sales.

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.02 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.25, down 2 cents
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -22 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents

? Market Headlines:

• Weekly export inspections for the week ending August 14th showed wheat inspections in the week at 395,240 MTs, which was down just under 5% from last week; cumulative marketing year inspections now stand at 4.812 MMTs, which is up 4% from last year.

• There aren't a lot of details readily available this afternoon regarding White House meetings between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky, as well as other European leaders, though brief snips on social media seem to indicate things are going better than Zelensky's last trip to the US.

Summary:

Wheat futures saw a quietly lower start to the week on Monday as the global market was described as mostly routine and there wasn't a lot of new cash news to report from Asia or the Black Sea region. Futures markets in all three classes have a seasonal tendency to rally in another week or 2 through the month of September on the wrapping up of US harvest, but otherwise, the situation remains that the world has plenty of wheat and up-side price moves beyond bouts of short covering should continue to be fairly labored.

In Other News

• Livestock markets saw higher trade to start the week on Monday:
• October live cattle: $231.17, up 52 cents
• September feeder cattle: $350.92, up $3.57; new contract high at $351.55
• October lean hogs: $90.12, up 2 cents

• Outside markets traded quietly mixed to start the week:
• Crude oil futures: up 40-60 cents/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 40 points, the S&P500 index is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is down 5 points
• US $ Index: up 20-30 points

• Amid ongoing trade hostilities between US/China and US/India, the two Asian nations are seemingly working to reset relations of their own, with lower level staff meetings in recent days paving the way for Indian PM Modi's first trip to China in seven years for talks aimed at deepening economic ties and trade cooperations between the two.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Main weather feature for the short term forecast this week aside from Hurricane Erin in the Atlantic will be a passing cold front that looks to significantly cool temps across the central Is at mid-week, while also bringing scattered storm chances for parts of the northern Corn Belt. Highs will be well below average for most all of the area by the end of the week and weekend.

• Precip-wise, the EU model forecast through the end of the day on Friday sees up to 1.5" of rainfall possible for generally MN and WI, though exact coverage and amounts will be spotty/hard to predict.

? Extended Forecast:

• Extended range forecasts coming out of the weekend have trended noticeably wetter in the western and west-central US into the end of the month, but still see mostly below average moisture chances through the Corn Belt, especially in the north and east.

• 10-15 day temperature outlooks are little changed from last week and continue to show well below average temperature for most all of the US east of the Rockies into the end of the month.