AM Comments August 18 2025
Good morning. Ag futures markets at the CBOT are quietly lower coming out of the weekend this morning, with a general lack of new news the last couple days giving traders pause with both corn and soybean prices near the top end of last week's trading ranges to start this week. With values as oversold and seemingly as lifeless as they were, we understand the computer reaction to the USDA's numbers last week; but as we get into this week, we would simply add caution that large crops and good yields are still looming regardless of the exact acreage mix and a deal with China appears to still be a good ways off, meaning last week's pop could've been of a corrective development as opposed to a trend-altering event. Don't get caught chasing markets to the upside with the US harvest right around the corner. The corn market to start Monday morning is trading 1-3 cents lower, soybeans are trading 2-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $1.50/ton and soybean oil is down 30-40 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed to start the week, crude oil futures are up 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 30 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points; the S&P500 is down 10 points and the NASDAQ is down 40 points.
Today's Reports: Weekly Export Inspections; Weekly Crop Progress
- Friday afternoon's CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed that in the week ending August 12th managed money traders were sellers of just 2,364 contracts of corn (-176,114), and were also sellers of 8,526 contracts of Chicago wheat (-89,295) and buyers of 30,6559 contracts of soybeans (-35,270). In the soy products, funds were buyers of 24,284 contracts of meal (-109,309) and were sellers of 10,527 contracts of soybean oil (44,412).
- A Friday meeting in Alaska between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump failed to yield an actual ceasefire in the war in Ukraine, though both sides touted progress following several hours of discussions. Next in the process will be a meeting in Washington today between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky which will also be attended by several other European leaders.
- Trump has previously mentioned land concessions on the part of Ukraine as a prerequisite for a deal, something Zelensky has vehemently opposed, and this will likely be at the center of today's discussions along with talk regarding the European nation's ability to join NATO. That said, of note from Friday's talks is that Putin was not against rather robust security guarantees from the US, which seemed to be a sign of some sort of progress. Says one outlet, today's discussions at the Whit House will be a "crucial test of unity regarding the future of Ukraine."
- Lastly regarding this situation, Trump said following the meeting Friday that he would hold off on imposing new tariffs on China over its continued purchase of Russian oil, noting there wasn't "an immediate need to act" but adding he'd likely revisit the situation in two or three weeks. US officials also canceled a scheduled sixth round of trade discussions with Indian counterparts over the same failure to limit imports of Russian oil.
- US Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins on Friday announced a $750 million investment by the USDA to build a sterile fly production facility in Edinburg, TX, to try and combat the ongoing New World screwworm issue. The plant is expected to produce around 300 million sterile male flies per week, which, when released, will then mate with wild females and prevent viable offspring according to USDA sources. Rollins added there would also be an additional $100 mil investment in support surveillance tools such as traps, detection dogs and border patrols.
- Pro Farmer will kick off its highly anticipated Midwest crop tour later today on Monday. Scouts will survey more than 2,000 corn and soybean fields in the region and will give daily state-level yield estimates for both crops, with final national US yield estimates then given out later in the week on Thursday evening. This year's tour will be watched particularly closely amid current lofty USDA yield projections and farmer murmurs of pollination issues that have been ongoing for several weeks now.
- We mentioned this in our Friday afternoon commentary, but circling back, NOPA soybean crush data for the month of July, released Friday morning, showed US soybean crush in the month at 195.669 million bu, which was a new six-month high for any month and the largest July figure on record. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month were seen at 1.379 bil lbs, which was a new 21-year low. The USDA will update census figures for the same data points on September 2nd.
- Official Chinese customs data for the month of July shows the country's soybean imports in the month at 11.670 MMTs, which is up more than 18% from the same month last year; cumulative imports in 2025 now stand at 61.04 MMTs, which is up 4.6%. Meanwhile, corn imports in the month were down 95% from last year at 60k MTs, while wheat imports were down 48% from last year at 410k MTs. Of note, data also shows Chinese soybean oil imports in July at 60k tons, which is up more than 260% from the same month last year.
- According to the USDA, federally inspected beef production in the week ending August 16th was seen at 458 mil lbs, which was down a little over 1% from the week prior; pork production in the week totaled 508 mil lbs, which was up 2.5% on the week. YTD beef production now stands at 15.95 bil lbs, down 3.8% from last year, while pork production stands at 16.86 bil lbs, down 2.2%.
- Aside from the White House meeting regarding Ukraine later today, the financial world will otherwise have its attention on embattled Fed Chairman Jerome Powell again, as the head policy maker will give comments at an annual research conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for what appears to be the final time during his eight-year run at the Fed's helm. Last year, Powell used the meeting to defend the job market and promise lower interest rates, with it unclear exactly what his message will be this time around.
- Weekend weather across the Midwest was largely as expected, with 72-hour satellite data showing good rainfall totals of 1-5" across parts of the eastern Dakotas and into southern MN/northern IA and then over into WI. A small area of northern IL/IN also saw some the of the better precip, but the rest of the Midwest generally south of here saw just light/scattered storm activity, with totals extremely spotty and mostly limited to just a tenth or two. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center issued around 250 wind reports for Friday and Saturday, mostly in the north-central Corn Belt, but we have not heard of anything more than localized crop damage this morning.
- As far as this week goes, Hurricane Erin will remain the headline maker at least through the first part of the week, but models don't see the system making landfall in either the US or Canada as the combination of the Bermuda high and the eastward moving low pressure that provided storms to the upper Midwest over the weekend will keep the hurricane out in the open Atlantic.
- Otherwise, ongoing high pressure in the southwestern US will continue to allow ridge-riding storm systems to impact the northern and north-central Midwest, with the EU model forecast calling for a scattered 0.5-1" through the week this week mostly favoring MN/WI/IA/IL with some locally heavier amounts possible. The model also sees additional precip for areas along the Gulf Coast and into TX the back half of this week, with expected totals similar to those seen in the north.
- Heat across the Midwest will begin to break around Wednesday/Thursday this week, with daytime highs by the weekend struggling to crack the 70 degree mark in parts of ND/MN/WI. There is then good model agreement in both the 5-10 day period and 10-15 day period on mostly below average air remaining in place for the eastern 2/3's of the US into the opening days of September, while areas west of the Rockies will likely stay warmer than average.