AM Comments August 15 2025
Good morning. Happy Friday. Back-and-forth we go at the CBOT, as ag markets are higher this morning to begin wrapping up the week, seemingly correcting yesterday's correction. As has been the case all summer, Fridays are trend days, with the big question for this particular version of the day being is a three day/70-ish cent rally in soybeans enough to change the trend, or was it simply a small pop in what is otherwise still a sideways/lower trending market? A close above the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, which are all near 10.25 this morning, would also be notable for new crop November futures. Otherwise, we know what the trend in corn is and the only question here is whether a push to another round of new contract lows this week was enough to get fund shorts to take profits going into the weekend. Corn futures to start Friday are trading 3-4 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 7-8 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher. Products are trading higher also, soybean meal is up around $1.50/ton and soybean oil is up 30 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 275 points, and the US$ index is down 30-40 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points and the NASDAQ is down 20 points.
Today's Reports: Monthly Retail Sales; NOPA Monthly Soybean Crush; CFTC Commitment of Traders
- According to the CME Group, Friday's delivery slate included another 196 contract of soybean meal, as well as 7 contracts of soybean oil and 3 contracts of soybeans.
- NOPA (the National Oilseed Processors Association) is set to release updated monthly US soybean crush data later this morning at 11am central time; according to a survey of Bloomberg analysts, traders see the report showing July soybean crush at 190.8 mil bu, which if accurate, would be up 3% from June and up 4% from July of last year. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month are seen at 1.332 bil lbs, which would be down 3% from June and down 11% from July of last year.
- CONAB on Thursday raised their estimate of Brazil's total corn production in the 2024/25 season to 137.005 MMTs, which now puts them well ahead of the USDA, who held their estimate steady earlier this week at 132.0 MMTs. The departure illustrates a stark difference from recent years, where USDA has regularly out-estimated CONAB. The group also slightly raised their estimate of Brazil's soybean production in the same season from 169.5 MMTs last month to 169.7 MMTs this month.
- Following a Midwest crop tour this week, analysts from AgResource Co. said on Thursday following tours of fields in northern and eastern Iowa that what they saw corroborated the USDA's lofty projections for the state, adding that they don't see a lot of need for additional moisture at this point. The scouts mentioned that they found no evidence of pollination issues in corn, and added that soybean fields were difficult to walk through due to how thick the beans were.
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Thursday that his government was looking at a series of measures to support canola farmers hit by new Chinese tariffs, but didn't give a lot of further detail. In a social media post, Carney also added that Canada would be seeking dialogue with China to address concerns regarding the situation, and they would also be looking to diversify their foreign trade.
- India's Farm Secretary said in recent days that ample monsoonal rainfall so far this season has significantly improved prospects for the country's winter crops, adding that a record harvest was possible. India's winter wheat crop is usually planted in October in November, and planted area is also expected to increase this year.
- According to the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending August 9th totaled 853k tons, which which was up nearly 10% from last wee; corn shipments in the week at 390k tons were down 9% form the week prior, and soybean shipments in the week at 395k tons were up 27% from the week prior. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $17.92/short ton, down 40 cents from the week prior.
- French crop body FranceAgriMer, in a weekly update, said the country's wheat harvest had reached 99% complete as of August 11th, while corn conditions during the week declined 2% in the G/EX category to 65%, which compares to 76% last year.
- Aside from monthly retail sales data, the financial world data slate will be on the lighter side to wrap up the week, with attention squarely focused on the Trump-Putin summit that is set to take place today in Alaska. It is unclear what exactly expectations for the meeting should be going in, though Trump mentioned earlier this week that a deal would likely include Ukraine ceding some amount of territory to Russia. Trump has also talked about an additional subsequent meeting following this one with Ukrainian President Zelensky and other European leaders.
- The central and southern parts of the Midwest look to see mostly warm and dry weather over the next 72 hours or so into next week, with rainfall according to the EU model limited mostly to MN/WI and a small section of far northern IA. The Dakotas also see scattered precip potential, but totals will be heavier further to the east. The rains will allow heat to mostly stay away from these areas, but the rest of the Midwest will see daytime highs in the mid/upper 90's to the low triple digits into next week, before cooler air is seen moving in by the end of next week.
- Have a great weekend!