Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $3.75, up 1 cent; outside day higher
• December Corn (CZ): $3.97 1/4, unchanged; outside day higher
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -22 1/4, up 1 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Private exporters this morning reported a pair of daily sales flashes: 136,000 MTs of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2025/26 marketing year and 132,000 MTs of corn for delivery to Spain during the 2025/26 marketing year.

• This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending August 7th showed old crop corn sales below trade expectations at (89)k MTs; the cancelations are somewhat seasonal though with the marketing year ending in just a couple more weeks.

• New crop sales in the week though were impressive, coming in at 2.048 MMTs. Featured buyers in the week were Mexico (498,400 MTs), Japan (249,000 MTs), and Taiwan (202,300 MTs); unknown destinations were buyers of 356,200 MTs in the week.

• Brazil's USDA equivalent CONAB earlier on Thursday released updated monthly crop estimates showing total corn production at 137 MMTs, which was up more than 5 MMTs from their July estimate. Safrinha production was seen at 109.6 MMTs, up a similar amount. To view our CONAB corn production map, please click here.

• The Rosario Grain Exchange said in a monthly crop report yesterday that corn planted area in the 2025/26 season could possibly expand 15-20% from last year due to better profitability when compared to soybeans and also due to good soil moisture levels that should allow for early planting progress. This past season, Argentine farmers planted around 6.3 mil hectares of corn.

Summary:

Closes in the corn market could've been worse on Thursday all things considered, as lower price action in the other markets, as well as a rather sizeable production increase in the Brazilian corn crop this morning out of CONAB, were not enough to keep the market in the red for the entirety of the day. With there being little new of note fundamentally though, we don't see anything in today's price action that would indicate anything more than a brief corrective bounce, with the overall trend remaining down on global supplies into the end of the year that look to be plentiful.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• September Soybeans (SU): $10.07 1/2, down 16 1/2 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.28 1/2, down 15 3/4 cents
• September Soybean Meal (MU): $284.30, down $2.70/ton
• September Soybean Oil (LU): 51.99, down 1.40 cents/lb
• September/November Spread (SU/SX): -21, down 3/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Brazil's CONAB again made just minor adjustments to their soybean production estimate this month, raising it slightly from 169.5 MMTs to 169.7 MMTs. The figure compares to the USDA at 169.0 MMTs, which is a notable difference from recent years when the two groups had sizeable differences. To view our CONAB soybean production map, please click here.

• This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending August 7th showed old crop soybean sales below trade expectations at (378)k MTs, with unknown destinations being the biggest contributor to the cancelations. Like with corn, cancelations are common this time of year as the marketing year gets ready to flip.

• New crop sales in the week came in above the upper end of trade expectations at 1.133 MMTs, with featured buyers being Mexico (251,100 MTs) and Taiwan (144,500 MTs); unknown destinations were buyers of 424,200 MTs in the week.

• Soybean oil futures traded to sharp losses on Thursday on news that the Trump administration was likely to be more lenient on small refinery exemptions, with the SRE's possibly being issued before the coming Labor Day holiday.

Summary:

Profit taking was likely the name of the game in the soybean market on Thursday, as algorithm traders that have been on the buy side of the market most of the week likely took their gains heading into the weekend. Like we mentioned at the top, the $10 level will be key to watch through the day tomorrow; it won't be a disaster from a chart standpoint should this level fail, but farmer sentiment will likely take a blow if all the bullishness (or possible bullishness) from this week wasn't even enough to keep values with a double digit handle in front of them for more than a day or two.

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.03 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents; new contract low at 5.00 3/4
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.24 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents; new contract low at 5.21 1/2
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -21, unchanged

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending August 7th showed wheat sales at 723k MTs, which was in-line with trade expectations. Featured buyers in the week were Korea (130,000 MTs), Mexico (114,900 MTs), and the Philippines (99,500 MTs).

Summary:

Chicago wheat futures fell to new contract lows on Thursday on what was otherwise again a fairly quiet day news wise. Though not entirely specific to just wheat, most traders in the space will have their attention on tomorrow's Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska to see what comes about from the latest discussions on reaching an agreement to end the fighting in Ukraine. It is the opinion of most that there is very little war premium in current prices, which leads to the question of how the market might react should some sort of ceasefire be agreed to.

In Other News

• Livestock markets traded to fairly sharp losses on Thursday:
• October live cattle: $226.82, down $2.60
• September feeder cattle: $341.02, down $5.60
• October lean hogs: $89.12, down $1.65

• Outside markets had a quiet day on Thursday:
• Crude oil futures: up $1.20-1.40/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 20 points, the S&P500 index is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is down 15 points
• US $ Index: up 30-40 points

• This morning's producer price index update was much hotter than economists had anticipated, with the 0.9% monthly increase being the largest in the last three years. The data did little to temper rate cut expectations though, with the CME's FedWatch tool this afternoon still showing a 93% chance at a quarter-point cut in the September FOMC meeting.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Short term weather into the weekend shows precip continuing to favor the northern Corn Belt, while the rest of the Midwest holds in a mostly drier pattern. As models continue to keep Hurricane Erin further east, short term precip outlooks for the southeast and East Coast have also lessened in recent days.

• Still nothing new to report on the temperature outlook in the short term, as Midwest temps will be on the warmer side of average for another week or so before cooler air moves into the region the middle/back half of next week.

? Extended Forecast:

• There continues to be little to no weather threats in the extended forecast into the end of the month, with precip maps showing drier than average conditions but temperature maps also trending on the cooler side.