AM Comments August 14 2025
Good morning. Ag markets at the CBOT are taking a corrective breather this morning following three days of upward price action to start this week, with all three of corn, beans and wheat trading in the red. Brazil's CONAB will be out with updated crop numbers later this morning, but otherwise, there hasn't been an abundance of news overnight and we would attribute most of the downward price action to profit taking from the short term buyers that entered the market on the China headlines coming out of the weekend. The three-day rally has been good, but with new crop prices back near their summer highs and a big harvest still looming, it will be interesting to see how much more upside momentum can be sustained in the short term. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents lower. Products are seeing spread activity, with soybean meal up around $1.50/ton and soybean oil down around 70 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed, crude oil futures are up 20-30 cents/bbl, all three of the major stock indices are near unchanged, and the US$ index is also near unchanged.
Today's Reports: Weekly Export Sales; Weekly Jobless Claims; Monthly PPI
- Deliveries this morning were similar to yesterday, with the CME Group assigning another 131 contracts of soybean meal and just 2 contracts of soybean oil.
- This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending August 7th is expected to show old crop corn sales in the week between 150k-600k MTs and old crop soybean sales in the week between 200k-700k MTs. For new crop, corn sales are seen between 900k-2.4 mil MTs, soybean sales are seen between 400k-900k MTs, and wheat sales are seen between 400k-850k MTs.
- According to a survey of Bloomberg analysts, traders see Brazil's CONAB this morning again raising their estimates of both the corn and soybean production in the country; soybean production is seen at 170.5 MMTs compared to 168.8 last month, while total corn production is seen at 134.6 MMTs compared to 132.0 last month. The report will be out at 7am central time this morning.
- The Rosario Grain Exchange said in a statement on Wednesday that they see Argentine corn acres likely increasing in the coming season due to better profit margins than soybeans and good soil moisture reserves that should allow for early planting. They mentioned growing areas in the central part of the country could see as much as a 15-20% increase in corn area form this year to next year.
- Sources familiar with the matter said Chinese canola meal buyers have roughly 400,000 MTs of supply sitting in warehouses near Chinese ports that arrived after Beijing imposed new export duties on the product; if released to the domestic market, the meal would be subject to the new 100% trade tariffs. Said one trader, "It is not viable to pay the duty, so we are looking at the possibility of reselling it to other markets... But it will have to be at a discount." Other sources said the discount was likely in the 30% ballpark.
- A private group of ag cooperatives in Germany said in a monthly report that they see total grain harvest in the country this year at 43 MMTs, which is up more than 1 MMT from their forecast last month and if accurate, would also be up roughly 10% from the harvest seen last year. Individual crop estimates include wheat at 22.4 MMTs, barely at 10.3 MMTs, and corn at 4.6 MMTs.
- Private industry shipping data released on Wednesday showed Russia's seaborne grain exports in July were down more than 40% from the same month last year at just 2.7 MMTs. Exports through Black Sea terminals, which normally account for around 90% of Russia's seaborne grain shipments, were similarly down by nearly 46% in the month.
- Ahead of a Friday meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska, the former said on Wednesday that there would be "very severe consequences" should Putin not agree to a ceasefire. He added that he was hopeful the meeting would lead to a quick second meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky shortly thereafter. Zelensky met with European leaders yesterday ahead of the meeting.
- Economists will be keeping an eye on this morning's monthly PPI update, as the data feeds into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, and will likely be fairly well scrutinized. Its expected that headline PPI inflation will come in at 2.5% later this morning, while core PPI inflation is seen at 2.7%; if accurate, both would be up from last month.
- Overnight weather forecasts are in better agreement on the path of Hurricane Erin being further east and staying mostly out in the open Atlantic, which has lessened rainfall amounts for the southeast into next week. Otherwise, the forecast for the Midwest is little changed this morning, with the central part of the region seeing mostly dry conditions into next week, while the north/northwest continues to see sporadic thunderstorm activity. The EU model shows rainfall through the Sunday night ranging from 0.1-2" through the Dakotas/MN/WI.
- Temperature outlooks this morning are also similar to yesterday and continue to be in good agreement on mostly warm air lingering through the Midwest until Wednesday/Thursday next week, when cooler air is then expected to move in and linger into the end of the month.