AM Comments August 12 2025
Good morning. Markets are seeing classic turn-around-Tuesday action at the CBOT this morning, with soybeans having gapped into an inside day to start following yesterday's sharp up move. We mentioned it yesterday afternoon, but Trump telling China they should do something in no way means they will, which means nothing materially changed as far as the balance sheets are concerned in the last 48 hours. That said, that will likely not be the case today with a fresh WASDE report on deck at 11am central time; aside from any further details on the China situation, this will be interest point A, B and C this morning, and will presumably key how markets close later this afternoon. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 8-10 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-6 cents lower. Products are also lower, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton and soybean oil is down 80-90 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed, crude oil futures are down around 40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is unchanged, and the US$ index is up 5 points; the S&P500 and the NASDAQ are also both near unchanged.
Today's Reports: Monthly CPI/Inflation; August WASDE; API Energy Stocks
- Another light morning for deliveries to start the week, with the CME Group assigning just 108 contracts of soybean meal.
- Yesterday afternoon's weekly crop progress update showed corn conditions as of Sunday the 10th at 72% G/EX, which was down 1% on the week but still well above recent years for this date. At the state level, TX and TN traded 12% changes up and down, while the only other notable improvements were in KY and PA, which were both up 3%; IL and ND declined 6% on the week, while CO and MI were each down 5%.
- On the progress side, 94% of the crop has reached the silking stage compared to 95% average, 58% of the crop has reached the dough stage compared to 58% average, and 14% of the crop is now dented, compared to 13% average.
- Soybean conditions in the week came in at 68% G/EX which was down 1% on the week also; at the state level, TN saw the biggest decline on the week at 12%, while IL was down 6%, KS and ND were down 3%, and NE was down 2%. Inversely, SD saw a 3% improvement, while AR, KY, MI, and MS were all up 2%.
- Progress-wise, 91% of the crop is now seen blooming compared to 92% average, while 71% of the crop is setting pods compared to 72% average. Both figures are 1% ahead of last year.
- For wheat, spring wheat conditions improved 1% on the week in the G/EX category to 49%, while harvest advanced 11% to 16% complete. Winter wheat harvest reached 90% complete compared to 92% last year and the five-year average of 91%. To view the full report, please click here.
- Traders expect USDA this morning to show 2025/26 corn ending stocks at 1.900 bil bu and 2025/26 soybean ending stocks at 351 mil bu. At the world level, corn ending stocks in the same marketing year are seen at 278.3 MMTs and soybean ending stocks are seen at 127.5 MMTs. On the production side, trade sees US corn yield at 184.4 bu/acre and a crop of 15.990 bil bu, and sees US soybean yield at 52.9 bu/acre and a crop of 4.368 bil bu.
- In a weekly update, private consultancy AgRural said on Monday that safrinha corn harvest in Brazil's center-south had reached 88% complete as of last Thursday, which compares to 97% through the same day last year. The group added in a statement that they expect harvest to be mostly wrapped up by about the 20th of this month, even in the furthest behind areas.
- China's Ag Minister said in a monthly update on Monday that excessive heat and flooding in some areas have disrupted production prospects in some of the country's main growing regions, but did not make any changes to either the supply or demand side of the balance sheet when compared to last month.
- Staying in China and following a day filled with discussion regarding trade between them and the US, sources reported overnight that the Asian nation would be implementing additional levies on Canadian rapeseed imports following an anti-dumping probe. The country's Commerce Ministry said in a statement that duties would rise to 75.8% beginning on August 14th; it is unclear this morning whether or not this in addition to 100% duties levied earlier this year.
- Lastly regarding China, CNBC reported yesterday afternoon that President Trump signed an executive order extending the tariff truce that was set to expire today for another 90 days. The move was widely expected and effectively kicks the can down the road so the two sides can continue negotiating.
- Weather forecasts trended slightly drier overnight for most of the Corn Belt, but were otherwise little changed from Monday's runs through the end of this week. There is good model agreement on additional rainfall for the northwestern Corn Belt then into the first part of next week, but things look to be mostly dry in the meantime aside from scattered thunderstorm activity.
- Extended range precip forecasts continue to favor the southeastern quarter of the US for the best rainfall chances through the week of August 20th-26th as Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic remains present. Nothing new temperature-wise overnight, with models still in agreement on cooler air returning after another 5-10 days of mostly above average warmth.