PM Comments August 11 2025

Posted on Aug 11 at 14:53

Soybean futures led the CBOT ag space to mostly higher closes to start the new week on Monday, as China news from late in the evening yesterday caused algorithm traders to hit the buy buttons throughout the overnight and day sessions today. The grains reluctantly came along for the ride, but seemed to only do so for lack of anything else to trade on as news specific to these markets remained mostly lacking. That said, whether the rally can be followed through on is largely dependent on what the USDA prints in tomorrow's data set, with the Chinese news not immediately having an impact on corn or soybean balance sheets at this point.

Corn Market Update

? Prices:

  • September Corn (CU): $3.85, up 2 1/4 cents
  • December Corn (CZ): $4.07 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents
  • September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -22 3/4, unchanged

 

? Market Headlines:

  • This morning's weekly export inspections report for the week ending August 7th showed corn inspections in the week at 1.492 MMTs, which was up 16% from the week prior and well above trade expectations. Cumulative marketing year inspections now stand at 63.127 MMTs, which is up 29% from last year.

 

  • For tomorrow's August WASDE update, traders see 2025/26 ending stocks coming in at 1.900 bil bu, which would be up from the 1.660 bil seen last month. On the world side, ending stocks are seen at 278.3 MMTs, which would be up from 271.1 last month.

 

  • On the production side, trade sees US national average corn yield at 184.4 bu/acre, which would be a new record. Production is seen at 15.990 bil bu compared to 15.705 bil last month. Of note, USDA corn yields in August have been higher than July in six of the last 10 years, and have been higher than the average trade guess in seven of the last 10 years.

 

Summary:

Corn was a clear follower to start the week on Monday, with both old and new crop futures closing slightly higher on the day on spillover buying from the soy complex. With the market hovering near recently made contract lows, price direction for the rest of the week will be largely dependent on what the USDA prints in their morning update tomorrow, though it is our assumption that the trade has at least to some extent priced in a yield number that is probably quite a bit bigger than what the USDA printed in July. Our best advice is be aware of where risk potential lies going into the report and don't lose sight of the sheer volume of bearish information that has been digested since the last report a month ago.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

  • September Soybeans (SU): $9.91 3/4, up 22 3/4 cents
  • November Soybeans (SX): $10.11 1/4, up 23 3/4 cents
  • September Soybean Meal (MU): $280.80, up $4.20/ton
  • September Soybean Oil (LU): 53.19, up 0.48 cents/lb; inside day higher
  • September/November Spread (SU/SX): -19 1/2, up 1/4 cent

 

? Market Headlines:

  • This morning's weekly export inspection report pegged soybean inspections in the week ending August 7th at 518k MTs, which was down 18% from last week but still well above trade expectations. Cumulative inspections at 48.368 MMTs are now up 11% from last year.

 

  • For the August WASDE report, traders see new crop carry out coming in at 351 mil bu, which would be up from 310 mil bu last month. At the world level, carry out is seen at 127.5 MMTs, which would be up just slightly from last month's 126.1.

 

  • On the production side, national average yield is seen at 52.9 bu/acre compared to 52.5 last month, and production is seen at 4.368 bil bu compared to 4.335 bil last month. Of note, August yields from the USDA have been higher than the July estimate 8 of the last 10 years and have also been higher than the average trade guess in the same 8 of the last 10 years.

 

Summary:

Prices in the soybean market finished sharply higher on Monday on a Sunday night Truth Social post from President Trump indicating a desire for China to buy more US soybeans, and then thanking Chinese President Xi at the end of the post. The rhetoric of the post was strange, with several analysts and talking heads accurately pointing out that not only was a "quadrupling" of US soy purchases by the Chinese unlikely, it was also not feasible as this would leave the domestic US soy crush industry short some 1 billion bu of beans. It is unclear how the situation develops from here, but this is seemingly the first we've heard of specific ag purchases being included in a trade deal, which is what the bull camp has been waiting for.

Wheat Market Update

? Prices:

  • September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.15, up 1/2 cents
  • December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.35 1/2, up 1/2 cent
  • September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -20 1/2, unchanged

 

? Market Headlines:

  • Weekly export inspection data for the week ending August 7th showed wheat inspections in the week at 365k MTs, which was down 47% from last week but still within trade expectations. Cumulative inspections for the 2025/26 marketing year have now reached 4.367 MMTs, which is up 2% from last year.

 

  • For tomorrow's report, traders see wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 coming in at 882 mil bu, which would be down just slightly from last month's 890 mil. World stocks are seen at 261.6 MMTs compared to 261.5 last month.

 

  • For production, all wheat is seen at 1.920 bil bu compared to 1.929 bil last month; winter wheat production is seen at 1.346 bil bu and spring wheat production is seen at 495 mil bu.

 

Summary:

Quiet start to the week in the wheat market this week, as traders focused their attention elsewhere with not a lot of fresh news in the space. And unless USDA gives some sort of surprise in the WASDE update tomorrow morning, we would largely expect this choppy/quiet trade to remain the case most of the rest of the week, with there being a considerable amount of curiosity as to what is to come from the Trump/Putin meeting on Friday in Alaska.

In Other News
  • Livestock markets got off to higher closes to start the week:
  • October live cattle: $226.10, up 12 cents
  • September feeder cattle: $340.60, up 22 cents
  • October lean hogs: $91.77, up $1.10

  • Outside markets were mixed/quiet to start the week:
  • Crude oil futures: up 20 cents/bbl
  • Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 250 points, the S&P500 index is down 20 points, and the NASDAQ is down 90 points
  • US $ Index: up 30-40 points

 

  • CNBC reported after the close this afternoon that Trump signed an executive order extending the current tariff truce with China for another 90 days, as was widely anticipated.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

  • Models are in fair agreement on their precip outlook for the week, with both showing additional precip chances for the west-central and also the northwestern parts of the Corn Belt. Totals will be spotty and generally les than an inch, with the best rains according to the EU model favoring the KS/OK border.

 

  • Temperatures are expected to stay average to slightly above through the Midwest this week, but there doesn't seem to be any indications of extreme heat returning to the Midwest in the short term.

 

? Extended Forecast:

  • Week two precip maps for Monday are in better agreement than was seen last week, and see above average precip potential for the southeastern US, while most of the Midwest sees average to slightly below average potential. Models are also attempting to bring more moisture into the southwest in the period, but our confidence in this today is low.

 

  • Extended range temperature forecasts continue to be mostly favorable, with the both the EU and the GFS showing a return to well below average temps for the eastern 2/3's of the US by the week of August 21st -26th.