Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $3.82 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.05 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -22 3/4, down 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• The USDA's Foreign Ag Service reported daily export sales flashes of 125,000 MT of corn to unknown destination for the 202/26 crop year.

• Farmers Business Network released their yield estimates for next week's crop report. They see the US corn yield jumping to 186.4 BPA with soybeans jumping to 54.7 BPA.

• Today marks the end of the EPA comment period for the 2026-27 RVOs that were announced back in June. There are rumors that the administration will announce small refinery exemptions at a rate much larger than desired by the ethanol industry.

Summary:

Corn futures bounced around on both sides of unchanged before closing slightly weaker but also near the low end of today's range. It just feels like there are too many things working against the corn market right now to carve out a seasonal low. Favorable weather, strong crop ratings, large production expectations and a growing carryout all seem to weigh on rally attempts. Crude oil closing lower for 6 consecutive sessions (maybe 7) doesn't bode well, either. The market needs to get through next Tuesday's report before any fresh buying likely appears.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• September Soybeans (SU): $9.67 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $9.87 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents
• September Soybean Meal (MU): $276.60, up $0.5/ton
• September Soybean Oil (LU): 52.71, down 0.79 cents/lb
• September/November Spread (SU/SX): -19 3/4, unchanged

? Market Headlines:

• Bean oil was sharply lower on Friday, marking the 8th session in a row with a lower close. September futures closed below the 50-day moving average for the first time since mid-June. Technical support lies at the top of the mid-June gap that happened following the RVO announcement.

• Commerce Secretary Lutnick made the statement that he thinks the policy deadline with China will be extended for 90 days. That news didn't seem to help out the struggling bean market, knowing export demand to China has been lost and every delay is increasing US bean ending stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year.

• China imported a record 11.67 MMT's tons of beans in July. The Chinese have been aggressively buying beans from Brazil. Brazilian soybean exports in July totaled 12.25 MMT's, up 9% from June.

Summary:

Soybean futures attempted to rally early in the session but the failed rally attempt found aggressive sellers to push futures lower into the close. Bean oil continues to leak lower, losing nearly 1 1/2% of its value today. Board crush had its lowest close in 10 trading sessions, while oil share had its lowest close in 6 weeks.

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.14 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.35, down 4 cents
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -20 1/2, down 1/4

? Market Headlines:

In similar fashion to corn, the recent wheat rally came to a conclusion following 1 consecutive higher close in a row. President Trump and Putin are expected to meet next week and there are some that believe this could market the beginning of the end to the war. A truce to the war could be seen as slightly bearish to wheat futures and energy markets.

Summary:

Wheat futures settled moderately weaker heading into the weekend. Dry conditions in the EU and Black Sea region has been mildly supportive. A trade truce could be seen as slightly bearish. The seasonal pattern shows wheat futures trending lower into September.

In Other News

• Livestock markets ended the day sharply lower in the cattle sector while hogs finished the day mixed. Prior to today, Dec live cattle had rallied more than $11 over the past 5 sessions while Nov feeders were up $22, so a round of profit-taking should not come as a surprise. USDA boxed beef cutout came in at 377.78, down 1.16 from yesterday.

• October live cattle: $225.97, down $6.20
• September feeder cattle: $340.375, down $9.25
• October lean hogs: $90.675, down $0.25

• Outside markets were mostly lower on Tuesday:
• Crude oil futures: down around $0.10/bbl
• Stock index futures: The equity markets found some life on Friday with the tech sector leading the charge. Nasdaq is up 215 points, the Dow up 250 and the S&P is up 50 points.
• US $ Index: is 20 points lower today, chopping around between the 20 and 50-day moving averages

• Crude oil was mixed at press time, trying to break the strong of 6 consecutive lower closes in a row. OPEC+ announced production increase remains the bearish fundamental news, attempting to rewin market share through least cost of production. An expected meeting between Trump and Putin also remains a potential bearish factor.

Weather Outlook

?Forecast:

• Showers and thunderstorms will work back into the WCB over the next 24 hours with some possibly heavy storms to move through the region over the weekend into early next week as the front slowly pushes eastward. Heat builds back into the S Plains with drier conditions. Above normal temperatures across much of the Midwest this weekend between storms. The medium range forecast shows a drier pattern with heat building across much of the region.