AM Comments August 8 2025
Good morning. Corn and wheat are mixed on the overnight around unchanged while beans are giving back about 3 cents from yesterday's rally. Funds are short the ag space so we will see if short covering will add support to prices in the next couple trading sessions before the report. Equity markets are slightly higher on the day this morning. Crude is a bit higher on the day but in a downward trend the past week. The dollar index continues on a downward trend.
Today's Reports: COT
- Today is a Light day for data releases with the COT the only major report to keep an eye on. Last Friday the managed money position was steady for corn at -181,185. Funds got more short week-over-week in soybeans pushing the short position to -36,311, and the wheat position was -65,324.
- Markets could find support today and Monday following on yesterday's up day as managed money looks to take some risk off the table ahead of teh report. The market has been bearish but much of that bearishness has been priced in and one would have to think the report on Tuesday would have to be a whopper of bearish information to see more aggressive selling at current levels by the funds.
- Speaking of the report, USDA is set to release the August WASDE next Tuesday, Aug 12th, at 11am CST. Average estimates have corn yields at 184.3 bpa with 15.996 bbu production, and 53.0 bpa soybean yields with a 4.374 bbu production.
- Argentina's corn harvest is 89% complete according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. They kept their production outlook steady for the season at 49 mmt.
- ANEC - Brazil's National Association of Cereal Exporters - sees Brazil exports reaching 8.15 mmt in August up from 7.98 mmt last year. Brazil just completed a record July for soybean exports at 11.67 mmt.
- Looking ahead in Brazil, agribusiness consultants Patria AgroNegocios estimate planted soybean area to expand at just 1.4% in 2025/26, representing a slowdown in the expansion rate of acres for soybeans. This is the smallest area increase since 2006/07 crop year. They peg soybean production at 166.5 mmt in 2025/26, down slightly from 168.7 mmt a year earlier. Brazil farmers will look to begin planting soybeans once the Safrinha crop harvest is complete.
- Heavy rain fell in Iowa yesterday with areas in the southeast portion of the state receiving up to 5" of rain. Some isolated rain is expected over the week around the Midwest.