AM Comments August 7 2025

Good morning. Markets are higher this morning with corn, soybeans, and wheat finally posting some early gains. December corn fell to a low of $3.96 ¾ yesterday but is up to $4.04 1/2, which is 3 cents higher this morning. The push under $4 for December corn sparked a short covering bounce late Wednesday. Sep Corn futures are trading 2.5c higher this morning, soybean futures are trading 2-3c higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 7-9c higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1.8/ton, and soybean oil is down around 25 points. Outside markets are mixed/mostly higher, crude oil futures are up around $0.35/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 188 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points; the S&P500 is up 36 points, and the NASDAQ is up 163 points.

 

Today's Reports: Weekly export sales, EIA Gas Storage, Consumer Credit

 

  • August deliveries for Thursday included 322 contracts of soybean meal, 61 soy oil, and 60 soybeans assigned by the CME Group last night.

  • Export Sales will be released this morning at 730am. Estimates for corn exports week ending July 31st are 200k-400k MT for the '24-'25 marketing year and 1.3 mil-1.5 mil MT for '25-'26 marketing year.

 

  • The August WASDE will be released next Tuesday, Aug 12th, at 11 am Central Time. Average estimates have corn yields at 184.3 bpa with 15.996 bbu production on corn and 53.0 bpa soybean yields with a 4.374 bbu production per Bloomberg.

 

  • President Trump's higher tariff rates on dozens of trade partners are set to kick in today. Indian Prime Minister Modi said he will not compromise the interests of the country's farmers when it comes to trade deals.

 

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Trump are set to meet in the coming days. This would be the first summit of the two nations since 2021. Trump is also planning a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy within the next few days.

 

  • Basis was mixed yesterday: Western rail values improved with both Hereford, TX, and Nebraska group 3's firming up for old crop. Processor corn basis was slightly weaker, ADM Decatur backed off their nearby corn bid 2c to +15U.

 

  • Spreads are mostly firmer this morning for both corn and soybeans. Yesterday, some deferred spreads made new lows: CZ/CN got out to -36 ¾ while SX/SN made new lows of -62 ¼. CN/CU is a half penny wider this morning and back out to -22.

 

  • A high-pressure system should maintain dry conditions for a good portion of the Midwest. However, 7-day precipitation maps show some rainfall for most of Iowa, Northwest IL, and southern Wisconsin.
  • Newest extended weather models show some temperatures rising above normal through mid-August with a ridge forming in the southern plains. Forecast models also have wetter trends across the Corn belt for the 8-14 day forecast.