AM Comments August 11 2025

Posted on Aug 11 at 07:05

Good morning. CBOT ag markets are higher this morning to start the new week with the soy complex in the lead on an overnight Trump social media post touting increased US soybean purchases by the Chinese. We've said for weeks that the market needs some sort of fundamental spark to kick it from the sideways pattern it had been in and this would seem to fit the bill if actually true. That said, we would offer caution in the very short term this week on chasing a market that is higher on a social media post that hasn't been confirmed by the other side and that also currently still has little evidence to support it. Seeing new crop soybean purchases by the Chinese on either the daily wire or the weekly run would be a good sign that progress is potentially being made between the two sides and would likely lead to an extension of the current rally. Corn futures to start Monday are trading 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 20-22 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is also trading 2-3 cents higher. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around $3/ton, and soybean oil is up 90-100 points. Outside markets are also quietly in the green - crude oil futures are up 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 120 points, and the US$ index is up 20 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points and the NASDAQ is up 30 points.

 

Today's Reports: Weekly Export Inspections; Weekly Crop Progress

 

  • Another light morning for deliveries to start the week, with the CME Group assigning just 108 contracts of soybean meal.

 

  • Big headline maker overnight was the previously mentioned Trump Truth Social post, which said, "China is worried about its shortage of soybeans. Our great farmers produce the most robust soybeans. I hope China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders. This is also a way of substantially reducing China's Trade Deficit with the USA. Rapid service will be provided. Thank you President Xi."

 

  • It is unclear this morning exactly what the announcement means in terms of a tariff pause or trade deal, with there being no mention to this point of anything regarding tomorrow's August 12th deadline. Sources say a 90-day extension of the current tariff truce is the most likely outcome, with last night's announcement giving further credence to this as such a move would allow talks that are seemingly progressing to be able to continue to doing so.

 

  • The CFTC Commitment of Traders report from last week showed managed money traders in the week ending August 5th were buyers of 7,435 contracts of corn (-173,750), sellers of 29,619 contracts of soybeans (-65,930), and sellers of 15,445 contracts of Chicago wheat (-80,769). In soy products, funds were sellers of just 234 contracts of meal (-133,592) and were also sellers of 11,661 contracts of soybean oil (54,939). The fund short in meal is a new record.

  • For tomorrow's August WASDE report, traders expect to see little change on old crop ending stocks for either corn or soybeans; on the new crop, corn ending stocks are seen at 1.918 bil bu compared to 1.660 last month, and soybean ending stocks are seen at 358 mil bu compared to 310 last month. For production, trade sees avg US corn yield at 184.3 bu/acre with a crop of 15.996 bil bu; for soybeans, yield is seen at 53.0 bu/acre while production is seen at 4.374 bil bu.

 

  • Ukraine's grain exports through roughly the first month of the marketing year that started July 1 are down nearly 55% from last year at just 2.1 MMTs, while harvest continues to lag last year by about 7 MMTs. Meanwhile, separate data shows Russian wheat exports well behind last year also for the month of July at just 1.78 MMTs, though analysts see this number rebounding to around 3.55 MMTs in August.

 

  • France's farm ministry last week raised their estimate of the country's 2025 soft wheat harvest to 33.1 MMTs, which is up from their previous estimate last month of 32.6 MMTs and also up nearly 30% from last year. Same group sees corn production at 13.9 MMTs, which would be down 5.6% from last year.

 

  • According to the USDA, federally inspected pork production in the US in the week ending August 9th totaled 495 mil lbs, which was up 0.6% from the week prior; beef production in the week was seen at 463 mil lbs, which was up just 0.2% on the week. For the year, beef production at 15.49 bil lbs is down 3.6% from last year, while pork production at 16.36 bil lbs is down 2.1% from last year.

 

  • Other China news from overnight/over the weekend included an apparent deal between US chipmakers and the US government where the companies (including Nvidia) would agree to pay 15% of their revenue from Chinese AI chip sales to the government in exchange for export licenses to be able to ship the products. The agreement is unusual, and is seen as the latest example of President Trump's foray into the mixing of the corporate world with politics.

 

  • Other than developments with China, traders this week will also be tuned in to the announced meeting between President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska on Friday. Sources say Trump has considered extending an invitation to Ukrainian President Zelensky, but there has been no confirmation of this as of this writing.

 

  • Weekend weather saw continued rainfall in the northern and west-central parts of the Corn Belt, with 72-hour satellite data showing wide-ranging totals of a tenth or two to upwards of 7+" in a very local area in southeast WI. The rains generally fell from KS/NE through MO/IA and into northern IL/WI. Data shows the southeast also saw rains over the weekend, but the bulk of the accumulation was off in open waters in the Atlantic.

 

  • Looking to this week, the EU model forecast shows additional rains through the central Midwest early in the week while the southeast is also expected to continue seeing rainfall for most of the week. There are light rains slated for the northern Corn Belt then the back half of this week, with totals generally staying under an inch. On the temperature side, daytime highs in the Midwest will continue being a mixed bag the first half of the week before returning to mostly slightly above average by the end of the week.

 

  • In the extended forecast, models are in better agreement this week on their precip outlook, with the both the EU and the GFS showing mostly dry conditions through the Midwest in the week of August 19-25, while also staying wet in the southeast and also wet in the western part of Canada. Temperature-wise, the 5-10 day outlook shows mostly warm conditions throughout all of the US, but then there is good model agreement on things then cooling again for the eastern 2/3's of the US in the 10-15 day period.