Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $3.79 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents; new contract low at 3.75
• December Corn (CZ): $4.01 1/4, down 3/4 cent; new contract low at 3.96 3/4
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -21 1/2, down 1 cent

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly ethanol update from the EIA missed the mark relative to trade expectations on both production and stocks for the week ending August 1st. The report showed average daily production in the week at 1.081 mil bbls/day, which was down 1.4% from last week and down 2.5% from the same week last year.

• Ethanol stocks in the week were down 4% from the week prior at 23.756 mil bbls and were down 1% from the same week last year.

• Corn usage in the week was estimated at 106.8 mil bu/day, which brings cumulative marketing year use to 5.086 bil bu.; this compares to 4.961 bil bu last year and the USDA's full marketing year forecast of 5.500 bil bu.

Summary:

New crop corn futures tested the $4 level on Wednesday before reversing course at mid-morning and finishing the day back above here as news remained slow for another session. Unless President Trump announces something positive on the trade front, which we are not overly optimistic about, we see it difficult for prices to make a bottom until more is known regarding crop size and just how big 2025/26 production will be, as this is pretty much all anyone cares about. There are demand questions as well going into harvest, mainly due to the size of the South American crop, but is the supply side that remains concern number one.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• September Soybeans (SU): $9.65 1/2, down 6 cents; new low for the move at 9.62
• November Soybeans (SX): $9.84 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents; new low for the move at 9.81 1/4
• September Soybean Meal (MU): $272.60, down $4.40/ton
• September Soybean Oil (LU): 53.72, down 0.05 cents/lb
• September/November Spread (SU/SX): -19, up 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• The EPA's 60-day comment period on the Renewable Volume Obligation ends on Friday, with there being rumors floating around that the EPA could also possibly make a ruling on SRE's (small refinery exemptions) Friday as well.

• South American consulting firm Safras y Mercado said on Wednesday that Brazilian farmer sales of old crop soybeans stand at roughly 78% of production compared to 82% last year, while new crop sales stand at roughly 17% of expected production, compared to 23% last year.

Summary:

The soybean market again made new lows for the move on Wednesday, with it becoming more and more likely that prices are going to at least test the contract lows scored last winter at some point in the near future. There wasn't much of anything new in regards to China throughout the day today, which left values to drift lower as the talk of the day otherwise focused on yield potential that has seemingly improved from where it was a couple weeks ago. In the product markets, bean oil traded with the energy markets and was higher early this morning before flipping and finishing lower, while meal also closed after finishing at its best level in nearly a month yesterday.

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.08 1/2, up 1/4 cent; new contract low at 5.04
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.29 1/4, up 3/4 cent; new contract low at 5.25
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -20 3/4, down 1/2 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Talk of logistics concerns and quality issues within Russia were the main reasons given for the minor support in the wheat market on Wednesday, as headline news was otherwise absent.

Summary:

Wheat futures traded to new contract lows on Wednesday as pressure from the corn and bean markets spilled over a bit into the wheat space early before receding into the close. Sources reported positive discussion between Russian President Putin and US special envoy Steve Witkoff during the day today, but it is unclear still at this point whether any sort of a partial agreement is expected by the end of the week this week.

Corn

• Support levels in the corn market continue to come and go, with both old and new crop futures having again made new contract lows over the past week. From here, support is seen at last summer's low on the continuation chart just above 3.60, and then below here in the 3.30-3.40 range which generally marked the low end of the trading range from 2016-2020.

• On the top side this week, retracement resistance will be seen in the mid-3.90 area, with the psychological $4 level again being resistance above here. On a close above $4, our upside objectives become the July 18th high at 4.11, and then the chart gap that remains open from 4.13 to 4.17 1/4.

• RSI this week has reached oversold territory, registering at 30.9 today.

Soybeans

• Soybeans have continued to work lower over the past week, with the market having made new lows for the move. For this week, first support will be seen at the current contract low made in December at 9.55 1/4, and then below here at the late-summer low from last year at 9.36 1/4.

• On an up-move this week, first resistance will be seen at 50% retracement of the most recent down move at 9.96 3/4, and then just above here at the even $10 level. On a close above $10, both the 100 and 200-day moving averages are near 10.20, and then the July 18th high is above here at 10.27 1/2.

• RSI is also oversold in the soybeans, registering today at 31.7.

In Other News

• Livestock markets traded mixed at mid-week:
• October live cattle: $229.65, up $2.55
• September feeder cattle: $344.22, up $4.67; new contract high at $344.67
• October lean hogs: $91.97, down 82 cents

• Outside markets saw mixed trading on Wednesday:
• Crude Oil Futures: down 80-90 cents/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is up 75 points, the S&P500 index is up 45 points, and the NASDAQ is up 300 points
• US $ Index: down 50-60 points

• Petroleum stocks data in this morning's EIA report for the week ending August 1st were as follows:
• Crude Oil Stocks - down 3.029 mil bbls to 423.662 mil bbls
• Gasoline Stocks - down 1.323 mil bbls to 227.082 mil bbls
• Distillate Stocks - down 0.565 mil bbls to 112.971 mil bbls
• Implied gasoline demand in the week was estimated at 9.040 mil bbls/day, compared to 9.152 mil last week and 8.967 mil in the same week last year.

• President Trump on Wednesday doubled down on threats to increase tariffs on India due to their ongoing purchases of Russian oil, signing an executive order raising duties by 25% starting three weeks from tomorrow. Once in affect, the new duties will bring total tariffs on some goods from India to 50%, which is among the highest rates for goods coming from any other US trading partner.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• The EU model is notably wetter than the GFS through the rest of this week and into the weekend, though both are in agreement on the precip location being moistly focused on the northwestern Corn Belt. The 12Z GFS run shows the heaviest rains between now and the weekend focused on the IA/MN border, with the best totals otherwise seen further south through IA.

• On the temperature side, the far southeast along the Atlantic will see cloud-induced coolness through the weekend, but elsewhere, temperatures look to be mostly above average through the Midwest, with highs returning to the triple digits through CO/OK/KS/NE.

? Extended Forecast:

• Precip forecasts in the extended period are continuing to see influence from a pair of tropical storm systems in the Atlantic, which have kept model run variations variable. Today, the GFS is still wetter than the EU through the southeastern US, while the EU remains wetter across the northern Plains and into the Canadian Prairies.

• There is also continued model disagreement in the extended range temp forecast, with the EU noticeably cooler through the country's mid-section than the GFS is. There is better agreement in the 5-10 day period, where warmth is seen west of the Rockies, and also in the far northeast and into eastern Canada.