Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $3.81 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents; new contract low at 3.80 1/2
• December Corn (CZ): $4.02, down 5 cents; new contract low at 4.01 1/2
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -20 1/2, down 1/2 cent

? Market Headlines:

• The USDA's Foreign Ag Service reported daily export sales flashes of 128,000 Mts of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/26 marketing year. The sale was initially incorrectly reported as soybeans.

• Census export data for the month of June, released earlier this morning, showed corn exports in the month at 265.6 mil bu, which compares to the USDA inspection figure for the month at 309.7 mil bu. Cumulative inspections now stand at 2.356 bil bu according to census data, and 2.222 bil bu according to inspection data.

• June ethanol exports were seen at 657.427 mil liters, which is down about 6% from May but still up nearly 30% from June of last year.

• Private US brokerage firm StoneX late in the day yesterday said they see the US corn crop at 16.323 bil bu, with the national average yield being 188.1 bu/acre. S&P Global (formerly the Informa group) also released crop estimates, pegging the crop at 16.140 bil bu with a national average yield of 186.0 bu/acre.

Summary:

Despite improving volume and continued steady demand data, corn futures continued their downward slide on Tuesday and finished the day more than 1% lower. Private crop estimates are beginning to trickle in and are expectedly larger than where the USDA is currently at, with there simply being little to no way to either refute or corroborate the claims at this point. However, if the StoneX figure is accurate, ending stocks quickly jump right back above 2.0 bil bu's, which has been the proverbial 'line in the sand' in recent years between the bears and bulls.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• September Soybeans (SU): $9.71 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $9.90 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents
• September Soybean Meal (MU): $277.0, unchanged
• September Soybean Oil (LU): 53.77, down 0.63 cents/lb; outside day lower
• September/November Spread (SU/SX): -19 1/4, unchanged

? Market Headlines:

• June census soybean exports were seen at 55.1 mil bu, which was a new marketing year low and compares to the USDA's inspection figure of 60.5 mil bu. Cumulative marketing year inspections now stand at 1.740 bil bu according to census data and 1.700 according to USDA inspection data.

• Soybean oil exports for June were down significantly from the month prior at just 42.5k tons; this is also down nearly 75% from the average of the first five months this year, which is seen at 161.3k tons. Meal exports totaled 1.324 MMTs in the month, compared to 1.361 MMTs in May and 1.093 MMTs in June last year.

• S&P Global estimated the 2025/26 US soybean crop at 4.413 bil bu, while seeing the national average yield at 53.5 bu/acre.

Summary:

Early action in the soybean market this morning clearly illustrates traders are looking for something demand-related to produce a change in trend, with a false flash sale producing a 6-8 cent rally in the first few minutes of the session this morning. The rally didn't last and prices ended up closing the day lower, but the situation is a good reminder of just how important China is to the US soybean fundamental landscape. Like with corn, a record crop mixed with an export outlook that is possibly too high right now could create a situation of increasing ending stocks as the season goes on.

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.08 1/4, down 8 1/2 cents; new contract low at 5.07
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.28 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents; new contract low at 5.27 1/4
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -20 1/4, unchanged

? Market Headlines:

• In the first month of the 2025/26 marketing year, June census wheat exports were seen at 63.2 mil bu, which compares to the USDA's inspection figure at 64.6 mil bu and last year's June figure of 53.9 mil bu.

• S&P Global estimated the US wheat crop at 1.874 mil bu, which is down slightly from their estimate last month and also below the USDA's current production estimate of 1.929 mil bu. Same group lowered Argentina's 2025/26 wheat production 300k MTs to 20.5 MMTs, while increasing EU production by 1 MMT to 137.7 MMTs and increasing Russian production by 0.9 MMTs to 83.2 MMTs.

Summary:

Continued good weather around the globe and an abundance of exportable supply has continued to weigh on US wheat prices, with futures contracts again making new contract lows throughout the day today. Otherwise, news was limited throughout the day, with USDA offering little of note in yesterday's progress/condition ratings.

In Other News

• Livestock markets saw follow through buying on Tuesday and again closed higher:
• October live cattle: $227.10, up $3.00
• September feeder cattle: $339.55, up $5.10
• October lean hogs: $92.80, up $1.90

• Outside markets were mostly lower on Tuesday:
• Crude oil futures: down around $1.10/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 60 points, the S&P500 index is down 30 points, and the NASDAQ is down 150 points
• US $ Index: near unchanged

• President Trump told CNBC on Tuesday that the US and China were "very close" to a trade deal, but didn't go into a lot of other detail on the matter. In response to questions regarding whether he and President Xi would meet, Trump said, "He asked for a meeting, and I'll end up having a meeting before the end of the year most likely, if we make a deal. If we don't make a deal, I'm not going to have a meeting."

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Mid-day weather forecasts trended slightly drier and cooler compared to the overnight runs this afternoon, but were otherwise little changed again and continue to offer limited rainfall potential to the Midwest the rest of the week.

• Temperatures will continue warming throughout the rest of the week and into the weekend, though pockets of cooler air look to linger in the northwest and also in the southeast for another several days, with warm air generally seen in between.

? Extended Forecast:

• Precip forecasts for the week two period show above average moisture chances in generally the eastern 1/4 of the country and across the Canadian Prairies, while dryness is seen through the south-central Plains and mid-section of the US.

• The GFS's 10-15 day temperature outlook continues to be noticeably warmer than the EU's outlook in the southeast and also in the north-central part of the country, while the European outlook is in turn noticeably hotter in eastern Canada than the GFS is.