Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $3.87, down 2 1/2 cents; new contract low at 3.86 1/2
• December Corn (CZ): $4.07, down 3 3/4 cents; new contract low at 4.06 3/4
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -20, up 1 1/4 cents

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly export inspections report for the week ending July 31st showed corn inspections in the week at 1.208 MMTs, which was down 21% from last week but within trade expectations. Cumulative inspections now stand at 61.558 MMTs, which is up 28% from last year.

• Traders see crop conditions in this afternoon's weekly update coming in at 73% in the G/EX category, which would match the reading seen last week and be up from 67% seen last year.

• Downward momentum continues to hold on the charts at least early this week, with both old and new crop futures again making new contract lows on Monday.

Summary:

More of the same story at least early this week in the corn market, as bearish momentum due to a looming massive crop has continued to be front and center. We talked about it briefly last week, but the pollination issues being talked about on social media and through other avenues just don't seem to be widespread enough to generate a significant market reaction at this point. This has kept fund traders comfortable with their current short positions.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• September Soybeans (SU): $9.75 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $9.94 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents
• September Soybean Meal (MU): $277.0, up $6.10/ton
• September Soybean Oil (LU): 54.40, down 0.08 cents/lb
• September/November Spread (SU/SX): -19 1/4, up 1/2 cent; new contract low at -20 1/2

? Market Headlines:

• Soybean inspections in the week totaled 613k MTs, which was up 43% from last week and above the upper end of trade expectations; this was also the highest weekly inspection figure since the week of April 3rd earlier this year. Cumulative inspections have now reached 47.834 MMTs, which is up 11% from last year.

• Soybean conditions in the G/EX category in this afternoon's weekly updated are expected at 70%, which would match the reading seen last week and be up from 68% in the same week last year.

• Though planting is still a few months away, private crop estimates for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop have begun to trickle out; Celeres sees the crop at 177.2 MMTs, which would be up 2.5% from this past season, while US group StoneX estimated the crop at 178.2 MMTs, or an 8.2% increase from this year. StoneX also said they see a 2% planted area increase as likely.

Summary:

The soybean market was able to trade higher on Monday to start the new week, largely on the back of the meal market which had one of its better days on a percentage basis since spring. Though the strength to start the week was notable, newswires lacked a specific reason for the gains, making it unclear whether today's rally is just a bout of position squaring or perhaps the start of a larger rally. With the ongoing fundamental situation (oversupply) having not changed much, we find it somewhat difficult to believe that this would be the end of the longer term downtrend that has been in place since generally 2023.

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.16 3/4, unchanged; new contract low at 5.13
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.37, unchanged; new contract low at 5.33 1/2
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -20 1/4, unchanged

? Market Headlines:

• Wheat inspections in this morning's weekly update were seen at 600k MTs, which was more than double last week and right at the upper end of trade expectations. Cumulative inspections in the marketing year that began June 1 now stand at 3.911 MMTs, which is up 9% from last year.

• Spring wheat harvest is seen advancing 6% on the week to 7% complete in this afternoon's update, while G/EX conditions are seen holding at steady at 49% compared to 74% last year. Winter wheat harvest is seen advancing from 80% complete last week to 88% this week.

Summary:

Quiet start to the week in the wheat market, with Chicago markets trading relatively small trading ranges throughout the day before closing right where they ended last week at for the most part. There is talk of a potential squeeze going on in the September contract, with the European co-ops holding long spreads to hedge against new crop export sales but being faced with expiration as the French farmer still has not sold a lot of new crop bushels. Neither side is budging at this point, but most funds have rules that prevent the holding of positions in a month that are less than two weeks from delivery, usually to prevent exactly this scenario from happening.

In Other News

• Livestock markets started the week in the green:
• October live cattle: $224.10, up 42 cents; outside day higher
• September feeder cattle: $334.45, up 52 cents
• October lean hogs: $90.90, up 85 cents

• Outside markets traded sharply mixed to start the week:
• Crude oil futures: down $1.10-1.20/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is up 570 points, the S&P500 index is up 90 points, and the NASDAQ is up 380 points
• US $ Index: down 30-40 points

• President Trump said on Monday that he was prepared to escalate tariffs on India in response to its continued purchases and subsequent reselling of Russian crude oil. Trump threatened an increase in tariffs from the current 25% level to possibly 100%, though it is unclear at this point exactly how likely that figure is.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Weather for the week looks to be mostly mild across a bulk of the Midwest, with temperatures returning to more seasonal levels and rainfall to be mostly limited to the northwest and the southeast. The EU's forecast today sees rainfall of 2+" possible for parts of the Dakotas and MN, while totals in the southeast are ranging from 2-7" depending on the area.

• The presence of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is making any forecast beyond the next 5-7 days rather variable, with model runs seeing rather notable shifts the last 48 hours or so. This will be the main feature to watch for going through the week this week.

? Extended Forecast:

• We mentioned the lack of confidence in the extended forecast, but week two precip maps are slightly drier than was seen last week and show average to slightly above average precip chances for the southeast and parts of the mid-south, while otherwise holding in a dry pattern in the west.

• Temperature outlooks in the 10-15 day period are in poor agreement, with the EU's model solution showing cooler air lingering throughout the mid-section of the country, while the GFS also shows a pocket of cooler air but smaller and much further east than the EU. There is notable disagreement in far eastern Canada, with the only real similarities between the two being an above average warmth pattern in the western US.