Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $3.89 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.10 3/4, down 3 cents
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -21 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents

? Market Headlines:

• CZ25 finished the week down -2% (-8 1/4 cents) week-over-week.

• Private exporters this morning reported more export sales for corn in a busy week: 125,000 mt of corn for delivery to unknown destinations for 2025/26, and 227,160 mt of corn received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations for 2025/26. 

• USDA this afternoon in the corn grindings reported noted: "Corn for fuel alcohol, at 449 million bushels, was up 6 percent from April 2025 but down 1 percent from May 2024."

• The weather continues to be favorable for corn in the near term. Cooler than normal temperature, especially at night, and some drying out will be beneficial. Disease pressure may mount as signs of tar spot, noted in 35 counties of Iowa, could be an issue. The producer does seem to be counteracting this risk with fungicide applications.

Summary:

If the recent pattern holds, we will come in on Monday morning to see corn selling off. This has been the story each Monday for the past four weeks. But are prices as low as they need to be right now absent concrete yield data? Analysts, etc, are beginning to toss their yield estimates into the market so it will be interesting what figures we see ahead of the August 12 WASDE report. Already we have seen estimates as high as 186.9 bu/acre. There is little in the weather that can derail the crop at this point from a development standpoint.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• August Soybeans (SQ): $9.61 3/4, unch
• November Soybeans (SX): $9.89 1/4, unch
• August Soybean Meal (MQ): $267.50, up $5.70/ton
• August Soybean Oil (LQ): 54.72, down 0.86 cents/lb
• August/November Spread (SQ/SX): -27 1/2, unch

? Market Headlines:

• New crop soybean futures finished the week down -3.1% (-31.75 cents) and are looking to test the lows from early April.

• Nearby soybean board crush margins are steady around 2.25, but the meal/oil trade unwound again today with oil futures down nearly 100 points and meal futures up nearly $6/ton. The long oil/short meal had become a crowded trade and the past two sessions we have seen some unwinding of that trade driving price movements.

• USDA reports the US crushed 197 mbu of soybeans in June - in-line with average market estimate of 196 million bushels. This represents a nearly 8% increase over June 2024 but was behind May's volume of 204 mbu in May.

Summary:

The trade continues to see China purchase Brazilian soybeans at higher premiums than US Gulf beans. The market is starting to price some concern on the demand side of the ledger. The yield outlook is more uncertain for the beans so a large yield this fall would add to the bearish tenor of the market if we see less Chinese bean buying in the coming weeks and months. The weather forecast for US soybeans does not look threatening in the near term, and the crop would enjoy a lack of rain to dry out. Board crush margins continue to be the bright spot for the bean market.

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.23 1/4, down 1/2 cent
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.42 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -19 1/4, up 1 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• WZ25 finished -3.8% (-21.25) lower on the week, and are treading near the recent lows.

• Private analyst SovEcon raised their forecast for 2025/26 Russian wheat to 43.3 mmt. They estimated 40.8 mmt of wheat was shipped from Russia in 2024/25.

• The upward revision was due to the wheat crop estimate being revised higher to 83.6 mmt from 83.0 mmt. Russia had dealt with severe drought earlier in the season but has seen improved crop conditions in the wheat producing central regions.

• Argentina is 98% planted on wheat. Wheat conditions improved to 61% good to excellent, up 10% on the week.

Summary:

Wheat news continues to be rather limited. Harvest is wrapping up in the U.S. Domestic wheat stocks continue to be comfortable.

In Other News

• Livestock markets saw mixed trade on Thursday:
• August live cattle: $230.125, up $2.35
• August feeder cattle: $334.575, up $3.20
• August lean hogs: $107.35, up $0.225

• Outside markets traded mostly lower on Thursday:
• Sept Crude oil futures: $67.15, down $2.11/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index was down 500 points, the S&P500 index was down 96 points, and the NASDAQ was down 450 points
• US $ Index: down 124 points

• Weaker than expected employment data and tariff headlines from President Trump weighed on the macro environment today with equities selling off and bond yields falling sharply. The outside markets provided stiff headwinds for the commodity complex today. The employment data for the week was generally positive outside of today's weaker than expected, but still not negative, jobs figures.