AM Comments August 4 2025
Good morning. Monday morning trade in Chicago has started much the way last week ended, with corn, soybeans, and wheat again all trading near unchanged this morning with small ranges and low volume. The August tariff deadline has come and gone with little new as it pertains to US ag demand, with next week's WASDE report now being the next fundamental news maker on the calendar. The big question at this point is whether pollination issues were widespread enough to create a problem as it pertains to national yield, which we have little insight into at this point; we have seen the social media pictures and heard the stories of poorly pollinated ears, but problems in a few areas or across a few varieties do not necessarily equate to a crop failure, and it will take actual combine data in another month or two to determine whether the issue is big enough to create a price rally. Corn futures to start the new week are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading either side of unchanged. Product markets are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1/ton and soybean oil is down 40-50 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down around $1.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 190 points, and the US$ index is down 30-40 points; the S&P500 is up 30 points and the NASDAQ is up 160 points.
Today's Reports: Weekly Export Inspections; Weekly Crop Progress
- According to the CME Group, August deliveries for Monday included 492 contracts of soybean meal, as well as 218 contracts of soybean oil and 5 contracts of soybeans.
- Friday afternoon's CFTC Commitment of Traders report for the week ending Tuesday, July 29th showed managed money traders were sellers of 3,821 contracts of corn in the week (net-short 181,185), and also sellers of 25,444 contracts of soybeans (net-short 36,311) and 13,283 contracts of Chicago wheat (net-short 65,234). In soy products, funds sold 3,615 contracts of meal (net-short 133,358) and bought 11,273 contracts of oil (net-long 66,600).
- Also out Friday afternoon was updated monthly soybean crush and corn grind data from the USDA; the reports showed US soybean crush in the month of June at 197.1 mil bu, which was down just over 3% from May but still up more than 7% from June of last year. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month were seen at 1.895 bil lbs, which was up 1% on the month but down nearly 11% from last year. To view the full report from the USDA, please click here.
- Corn grind data showed the amount of corn used for ethanol in June at 448 mil bu, which was up 0.8% from May and up 0.4% from June of last year. Total corn usage in the month was seen at 498 mil bu, which was up just marginally from last month but down less than 1% from last year. To view the full report from the USDA, please click here.
- According to the USDA, federally inspected beef production in the week ending August 2nd totaled 462 mil lbs, which was down 3% from the week prior and down 8% from the same week last year; pork production in the week was seen at 492 mil lbs, up 0.3% from last week but down 4% from the same week last year. Cumulative 2025 beef production at 15.02 bil lbs is down 3.5% from last year, while pork production at 15.87 bil lbs is down 2.1%.
- Sources familiar with the matter say India's soybean oil imports in July were up nearly 40% from the month prior at 495k tons, which is a new three-year high. Meanwhile, palm oil imports in the month were down 10% at 858k tons. Cash sources cited cheaper soybean oil and the arrival of delayed June shipments as the main reasons for the monthly distortions.
- According to a post on Ukraine's Economy Ministry website, the country has harvested just 15.5 MMTs of grains so far in the current season, which compares to 25.3 MMTs harvested through the same period last year. The total includes 11.4 MMTs of wheat (down from 19.4 last year) and 3.6 MMTs of barley (down 26% from last year).
- Crude oil futures are trading lower this morning on weekend news that OPEC+ had agreed to another round of production increases, green-lighting roughly 550k bbls/day in additional production starting in September.
- The financial world saw several notable headlines late last week and over the weekend, including Trump's removal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after disappointing jobs data on Friday, and also Fed Governor Adriana Kugler announcing her resignation also on Friday. Trump, who has been at odds with the Federal Reserve for most of 2025, said he planned to name a replacement for Kugler in the coming days, which gives him an opportunity to further exert his influence on the group.
- On the trade front this morning, USTR Jameson Greer said over the weekend that the August 12th tariff deadline currently in place with China has not been altered or extended, leaving this as the number one point of interest on the front for most in the ag world this week. Other news includes an expected conversation between President Trump and Canadian PM Mark Carney in the days ahead, which Canada's Trade Minister said he expects and is optimistic about.
- Weekend weather was quiet across most of the Midwest, with the Corn Belt seeing mild temps and mostly dry conditions over the last 72 hours. Rainfall, according to satellite data, was confined mostly to the southeast and areas along the Gulf, while parts of OK/KS/NE/SD also saw scattered precip that generally didn't add up to more than an inch.
- As we get into this week, forecasts are in fairly decent agreement on that pattern largely continuing, though air temps will likely be back on the warmer side of average for most by the end of the week. Rainfall will continue to favor the far northwest and far southeast, with MN/ND expected to see upwards of 2+", as well as GA and the Carolina's, where upwards of 5-7" is expected in some places.
- The extended forecast trended drier over the weekend on the precip side, but is continuing to have issues with the longer term temp outlook. The GFS's 10-15 day outlook is noticeably cooler than the EU's solution, which is keeping our confidence beyond this week low. In either case though, both models continue to lack any extended periods of extreme heat into the back half of the month, which should continue to be beneficial for crop development.