AM Comments August 1 2025
Good morning. Happy Friday. As has been the case pretty much every morning this week, CBOT ag markets are quietly mixed this morning to begin wrapping up the week, with there again being light volume and small trading ranges across all three of the corn, soybean, and wheat markets. Today marks President Trump's long awaited reciprocal tariff deadline, which means a bulk of the headlines throughout the day today will likely be related to this matter in some for or fashion. The administration has been busy announcing deals most of the week this week, making it unclear just exactly how many more deals could be expected today. Otherwise, the ongoing yield debate will continue into next week, with this remaining the overall biggest determiner of price direction between now and the full onset of harvest in another month or two. Traders need something to get excited about, and there simply wasn't anything around to do the trick this week. Corn futures to start Friday are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading near unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1/ton, and soybean oil is down 30-40 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 420 points, and the US$ index is up 15 points; the S&P500 is down 70 points and the ANSDAQ is down 250 points.
Today's Reports: Monthly Non-farm Payrolls; Monthly Unemployment; USDA Fats & Oils and Grain Crushings; CFTC Commitment of Traders
- This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending July 24th is expected to show old crop corn sales in the week between 200k-800k MTs and old crop soybean sales in the week between 100k-300k MTs. On the new crop, corn sales are seen between 600k-1.6 mil MTs, soybean sales are seen between 100k-600k MTs, and wheat sales are seen between 300k-700k MTs.
- USDA is scheduled to release monthly soybean crush and corn grind data today at 2pm central time. According to a survey of Bloomberg analysts, the trade sees June soybean crush at 196.9 mil bu, which would be up a little more than 7% from last year. Soybean oil stocks are seen at 1.867 bil lbs, which would be down 12% from last year. For corn, the trade sees June corn grind at 454.3 mil bu, which would be up just 2% from last year.
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, in their weekly crop update, showed Argentina corn harvest advancing 4% to 88% complete, while wheat planting advanced to 98.3% complete. The exchange added that recent rains throughout the country have improved soil moisture, with nearly all of the wheat planted area in normal or optimal conditions.
- A pair of cash sources told Reuters on Friday that Chinese buyers have signed another deal this week for the purchase of 30,000 tons of soybean meal from Argentina, marking the third such purchase since June. The cargoes are for shipment between September and October, and were priced at $345/MT. Argentina's meal is currently priced below that of China's own domestic supply, making imports attractive.
- The Trump administration on Thursday announced a number of tariff levels via several executive orders signed by President Trump. Notable in the orders were a 90-day extension of the current tariff pause for Mexico, while Canada was hit with 35% tariffs, India was hit with 25% tariffs, Taiwan was hit with 20% tariffs and Switzerland was hit with 39% tariffs. The executive order also listed higher import duty rates ranging from 10-41% starting in seven days for 69 other trading partners.
- According to the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending July 26th totaled 843k tons, which was up 15% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week were up 21% at 469k tons and soybean shipments were up 16% on the week at 346k tons. STL barge rates were quoted at $18.87/short ton, up 64 cents from the week prior.
- Wrapping up the week's busy data slate in the financial world on Friday will be fresh employment data this morning, along with an updated reading on unemployment, which are both expected to have market impacts. Bloomberg analysts see the monthly jobs report showing hiring growth in July likely slowing to 104k new jobs from 147k in June, while the unemployment rate is seen ticking up slightly to 4.2% from 4.1% last month.
- Following stormy/rainy weather for most of the Midwest this week, forecasts heading into the weekend show several days of drier conditions ahead for most of the area, with rainfall being confined further to the west in the Dakotas/NE/KS. The southeast also looks to see notable rainfall over the next 72 hours or so, with places in the Carolinas and GA possibly seeing upwards of 3+", however, these rains don't look to make it much further north than TN/KY.
- Temperatures to wrap up the week and going into the weekend will be mild to very mild, with daytime highs across the Corn Belt seen in the mid/upper-70's, while nighttime lows drop down to the mid/upper-50's. This cooler weather then lasts into next week, before models see more average temperatures returning to most of the Midwest, especially the western part, by Wednesday next week.
- On the precip side for next week, this weekend's dry pattern for the central Midwest is likely to linger for most of the week, with the west and southeast staying wet but the heart of the Midwest staying dry. Week two precip maps continue to offer above normal rainfall chances for most of the Corn Belt then into mid-August, meaning dryness is not overly concerning at this point due to a lack of drought conditions and decent to good soil moisture levels across most areas.
- Have a great weekend, and enjoy the cooler weather!