The ag space was mixed today with nearby corn and wheat finding a bid to post small gains. The soybean complex showed a sharp selloff in bean oil, with beans marginally lower. Most other commodity markets were lower to end the month. Live and feeder cattle futures were sharply lower after feeders set new contract highs again today. Tariff news continues to dominate the headlines. President Trump announced an extension of the current tariff deal with Mexico. The lack of a China trade deal continues to weigh on the ag space overall. The weather remains favorable with cooler air settling across the Midwest this weekend.

? Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $3.94, up 2 1/4 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.13 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -19 3/4, up 3/4 cents

? Market Headlines:

• Corn finished with small gains on a positive new crop export sales report and a slew of daily flashes this morning. Old crop corn sales totaled 13.4 mbu. Total commitments now stand at 2.773 bbu., versus the USDA estimate of 2.750 bbu. New crop sales this morning totaled 74.5 mbu. In addition, the USDA flashed sales of 100K tons to Columbia, 140K tons to South Korea, and 136K tons to unknown. These were all for the new crop marketing year.

• President Trump announced today that Mexico will continue with its prior trade deal for another 90 days. Ag products that are listed under USMCA will still be exempt from tariffs. The President announced a trade deal with South Korea late yesterday at a 15% tariff. The deadline for all other countries that have not reached an agreement, except for China, is still August 1st.

• The weather still looks favorable for corn over the next two weeks. The cooler air this weekend, especially at night, will be beneficial. There is some growing talk that there is too much rain in spots, but it will be hard ot determine if that has any adverse affect on yield. Disease pressure may mount, but the producer seems to be counteracting that somewhat with fungicide applications.

Summary:

The corn chart did post a small reversal higher today at the close. Confirmation of a short term technical bottom will need to be confirmed by follow through strength tomorrow. The new crop corn demand is good to see, as the USDA has a strong export program listed on the balance sheet right now. The USDA report looms on August 12th, and it should reflect strong yield potential. The corn market is running out of time to develop a real summer weather story, so the focus now turns to how big is the crop and what will demand continue to look like. The funds need something other than big yields and trade concerns to focus on if this corn market has a chance to turn around.

? Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• August Soybeans (SQ): $9.61 3/4, down 6 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $9.89 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents
• August Soybean Meal (MQ): $261.80, up $1.10/ton
• August Soybean Oil (LQ): 55.58, down 0.92 cents/lb
• August/November Spread (SQ/SX): -27 1/2, up 1/2 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Soybean exports for old crop totaled 12.83 mbu. this morning. That is a decent number for this time of year. Total commitments now stand at 1.878 bbu., versus the USDA estimate of 1.865 bbu. China was not listed as a buyer of new crop beans again today and their 25/26 total still stands at zero. A continuation of the current tariff pause on China is expected, but President Trump has not officially announced that yet. The current pause ends on August 12th.

• Soybean oil saw sharp losses as the August contract traded under key support near 56.0. Bean oil futures have been supported recently by expected increases to the RVOs and the limitation of using foreign feedstocks and products to meet those obligations.

• Like corn, the current weather forecast is viewed as supportive to crop development for soybeans. There is some concern building about yield in those areas that have had heavy rains and water is sitting.

Summary:

November soybeans traded into new recent lows again today as China export concerns weigh on futures. Fall Gulf premiums and spreads reflect a similar concern. November beans are trading to its lowest level since April. The key crop development month of August still remains for soybeans so weather issues could still pop up, the biggest one still remains China. The talks this week are good to see, but it appears nothing substantial will get done with China until the two Presidents meet later this fall.

? Wheat Market Update

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.23 1/4, down 1/2 cent
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.42 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -19 1/4, up 1 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Wheat export sales totaled 21.8 mbu., which was within expectations. Total wheat commitments stand at 351 mbu, versus the USDA full year estimate of 826 mbu. The current YTD total is the highest in 5 years. In addition, the USDA announced flash sales of 100K tons of hard red winter wheat to Nigeria.

• September wheat did set a new contract low again today at $5.16 3/4, but was able to recover back to near unchanged.

• Argentina is 98% planted on wheat. Wheat conditions improved to 61% good to excellent, up 10% on the week.

Summary:

Wheat news continues to be rather limited. Harvest is wrapping up in the U.S. Domestic wheat stocks continue to be comfortable.

? In Other News

• Livestock markets saw mixed trade on Thursday:
• August live cattle: $227.775, down $5.30
• August feeder cattle: $331.375, down $7.575; new contract high at $340.625
• August lean hogs: $107.125, up $0.10

• The cattle market was sharply lower to end the month. A key reversal was seen in feeder cattle as those contracts set new all-time highs before closing sharply lower. It will be telling over the next few sessions to see if today's action was related to month end or is a bigger correction coming. This recent push to new highs did make the charts overbought.

• Outside markets traded mostly lower on Thursday:
• Crude oil futures: down $0.73/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index was down 330 points, the S&P500 index was down 23 points, and the NASDAQ was down 7 points
• US $ Index: up 150 points

• Both the equity markets and non-ag commodity markets are still searching for clarity on tariffs. A few trade deals have been finalized, but there are a host of other countries that will see higher tariffs tomorrow. Apple posted strong earnings after the close today.