AM Comments July 31 2025
Good morning. As has mostly been the case all week, ag markets at the CBOT are quietly mixed to start Thursday trade, with all three of corn, beans and wheat trading either side of unchanged. With Trump's tariff deadline looming tomorrow, we would expect headlines throughout the day today to largely be filled with trade news and again see little new of note that's ag specific. Traders want to see what August weather is going to look like before making any new bets and there simply isn't a lot of ways to do this besides hurry up and wait. Like we've said for days now, choppy/sideways remains the path of least resistance until further notice. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading unchanged to a penny lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny lower also. Products are lower, soybean meal is down 50-60 cents/ton and soybean oil is down 40-50 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 100 points, and the US$ index is near unchanged; the S&P500 is up 60 points and the NASDAQ is up 280 points. New contract highs overnight again for the S&P and the NASDAQ.
Today's Reports: Weekly Export Sales; Weekly Jobless Claims; Monthly PCE Price Index
- This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending July 24th is expected to show old crop corn sales in the week between 200k-800k MTs and old crop soybean sales in the week between 100k-300k MTs. On the new crop, corn sales are seen between 600k-1.6 mil MTs, soybean sales are seen between 100k-600k MTs, and wheat sales are seen between 300k-700k MTs.
- USDA is scheduled to release monthly soybean crush and corn grind data tomorrow at 2pm central time. According to a survey of Bloomberg analysts, the trade sees June soybean crush at 196.9 mil bu, which would be up a little more than 7% from last year. Soybean oil stocks are seen at 1.867 bil lbs, which would be down 12% from last year. For corn, the trade sees June corn grind at 454.3 mil bu, which would be up just 2% from last year.
- Sources familiar with the matter on Wednesday reported that Bangladesh's government has approved the purchase of roughly 220k MTs of US wheat as an effort to cool trade tensions between the two countries. Bangladesh previously signed a memorandum of understanding for the purchase of 700k MTs of US wheat over the next five years, and had before that received US wheat shipments as a donation via the USAID program that Trump dismantled.
- Other trade news from Wednesday included news that the US and South Korea had reached a trade agreement, with Trump saying the US would charge a 15% tariff on imports from the Asian nation, down from the 25% that he had previously threatened. Trump also added that US goods, including ag products, would be charged a 0% tariff going into South Korea.
- Trump on Wednesday also mentioned 50% tariffs on Brazil, as well as 25% tariffs on India and 50% universal tariffs on all copper imports into the US, sending futures prices sharply lower. Furthermore, Trump told reporters that he thought a deal with Canada would be tough to reach due to their support for a Palestinian state in Gaza.
- In regards to China, President Trump said on Wednesday that he thought things were going well and that he saw a fair trade deal between the two sides as likely. The comments come despite the fact that Trump has still not approved an extension of the current August 12th deadline, though both sides have seemingly continued to indicate progress was made at recent meetings in Sweden.
- This week's financial market data glut continues today following another round of unchanged interest rates from the US Fed on Wednesday. For today, attention will be focused on updated PCE data, which is the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation; economists see the reading coming in at 2.5% on an annual basis for the month of June, which compares to 2.3% in May. The core rate is expected at 2.8% compared to 2.7% in May.
- Weather news continues to be mostly limited this morning, as thunderstorm activity from previous days this week looks to have moved out of the area. Most of the Midwest now expects to see several days of cooler/drier weather through the weekend and into early next week, though the models see heat then returning into the middle of August as the pattern stays progressive.
- With the heat though also comes an expected return of precip, with week two rainfall maps showing above average moisture biases in generally the northeastern quarter of the US. There are differences on the fringe areas in the southeast and northwest, but models are in decent agreement in above average moisture chances for the central Corn Belt the week of August 8th-14th.