Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $3.89 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents; new contract low at 3.87 3/4
• December Corn (CZ): $4.11, down 3 cents
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -21 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents; new contract low at -22 1/2

? Market Headlines:

• For the second time in recent weeks, newswires this morning erroneously reported a corn sale to China, though this time it was from Argentina and not the US. The story was later redacted, with Reuters saying Argentine shippers corrected the destination to Vietnam.

• It is unclear at this time whether these sales errors are related or why they have been both been to China. To our knowledge, China has still not even asked for US price offers, let alone been close to actually making any purchases.

• Old crop futures made new contract lows again on Tuesday, as the looming record crop out of the US on the back of the record crop out of Brazil has kept fund traders as sellers for the better part of the last couple months. The next target on the continuation chart is 3.77, and then below here at 3.60.

Summary:

There just doesn't seem to be an end in sight for the corn market, as both old and new crop values again declined for a third straight session on Tuesday. We heard local reports throughout the day today of wind damage from last night's storms across parts of northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, but at least for now, it doesn't appear this damage is widespread enough to get the market's attention. Like the pollination issue stories from a few weeks ago, it seems the situation is more locally unfortunate as opposed to something that will materially impact board prices.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• August Soybeans (SQ): $9.81 3/4, down 7 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.09 1/2, down 2 cents
• August Soybean Meal (MQ): $261.70, down $3.20/ton; new contract low at $261.30
• August Soybean Oil (LQ): 57.54, up 0.99 cents/lb
• August/November Spread (SQ/SX): -27 3/4, down 5 cents; new contract low at -28

? Market Headlines:

• Reuters reported on Tuesday that following record soybean imports in the first half of 2025, some crush plants in China have begun idling operations due to a lack of product storage space in recent weeks, with some traders adding that a more widespread issue was "highly likely."

• The situation led to Indian buyers reportedly booking a record 150,000 tons of Chinese soybean oil at prices that were deeply discounted to traditional suppliers in South America according to cash sources familiar with the situation. The cargoes are reportedly for shipment in September and December, with prices rumored to have been at around a $15-20 discount.

Summary:

Soybeans tried to trade higher for the overnight session last night and early on this morning, but were unable to sustain the buying and ended up again closing lower for the seventh straight day on Tuesday. Another round of China talks has come and gone with there again being little in the way of progress, with it becoming more and more likely that there won't be any sort of agreement in place by the time new crop harvest starts in another couple months. There continues to be no sign that China will begin buying US beans anytime soon, which remains a longer term negative to price.

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.38 1/2, up 1/4 cent
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.58 3/4, up 1/2 cent
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -20 1/4, down 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Slow news day in the wheat market, as prices saw pressure from technical selling and ongoing global export pressure. Russian shipments in July are likely to be well lower than last year, leaving export competition for the remainder of the year and into the first part of next year elevated.

• Spring wheat harvest has started across South Dakota, with yesterday's crop progress update showing the state 10% harvested, compared to 3% last week and 7% last year. Further west, Washington is 11% done and Idaho is 4% done.

Summary:

Wheat futures across all three classes finished lower on Tuesday, with the Chicago market back near the contract lows made in May on continued global price pressure. Russian export competition looks to be elevated in the months ahead, which to a larger extent will limit rally potential.

In Other News

• Livestock markets saw mixed trade on Tuesday:
• August live cattle: $229.72, up $1.85; new contract high at $229.90
• August feeder cattle: $336.20, up $2.67; new contract high at $336.70
• August lean hogs: $107.25, down $1.27

• A Brazilian meatpacker lobby on Tuesday said they estimate losses across the industry at around $1 billion if the US applies a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports. The tariffs are set to go into affect following Friday's deadline, with it unclear at this point whether any sort of deal with Brazil is likely.

• Outside markets traded sharply mixed on Tuesday:
• Crude oil futures: up $2.30-2.50/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 230 points, the S&P500 index is down 20 points, and the NASDAQ is down 40 points; new contract highs once again today for the NASDAQ
• US $ Index: up 20-30 points

• Following the conclusion of two days of talks between the US and China on Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters that talks were "positive" and "constructive", but that any sort of delay in the planned August 12th tariff increase was in the hands of President Trump.
• Of note, Bessent further added that the talks did not include any discussion on the social media app Tik-Tok, nor did the talks discuss a potential Trump-Xi meeting at any point in the future.

• The Union Pacific Railroad on Tuesday said that it had a deal in place to acquire rival Norfolk Southern for $85 billion, pending regulatory approval that could take upwards of 20+ months according to a source familiar with the matter. If approved, the deal would be the largest ever of its kind in the rail sector, and would signal a shift in antirust enforcement under the Trump administration.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Weather forecasts across the noon hour on Tuesday were mostly like the overnight runs, and continue to call for rain/thunderstorm activity from ridge-riding storm system across the northwestern and north-central Corn Belt through the end of this week. Coastal areas along the southeast are also expected to see additional rains into the end of the week, though totals will be significantly less than is seen through the Midwest.

• Little new to discuss on the temperature front today, as models have continued to trend even cooler and are in good agreement on a 5-10 day period of mostly below normal air temps for a lot of the Corn Belt following about 48 more hours of warm air today and tomorrow.

? Extended Forecast:

• Precip in the week two period looks to continue favoring the northern US and Canadian Prairies, while there continues to be model disagreement on precip potential for the Corn Belt and southern Midwest. That said, there is good model agreement on continued dryness in the south/southwest, and also good agreement on wetness in far northwest.

• The 10-15 day GFS mid-day temp run showed a warmer solution for the Midwest than was seen this morning, though the EU model still shows a pocket of cooler air lingering in the central US in the period. Like we said yesterday, our confidence in this forecast low, and we will need to see how things develop next week before forming a more concrete opinion. Either way, extreme heat continues to be lacking in both forecasts.