Good morning. Not a lot new again this morning to start mid-week trade at the CBOT, with the product markets trading mixed and the rest of the ag space within spitting distance of unchanged. While volume has been better the past couple days than it was last week, it remains the case that few are interested in taking on any sort of sizeable new positions with the start of the US harvest in the Midwest now just weeks away. Until traders have some sort of confidence in exactly what is out in fields right now in terms of crop size, choppy/sideways is the path of least resistance, and we assume this will remain the case at least through the first half of August. Corn futures to start Wednesday are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading unchanged to a penny lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1/ton, and soybean oil is down 40-50 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are down around 30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 10 points, and the US$ index is also up 10 points; the S&P500 is unchanged and the NASDAQ is up 30 points.

Today's Reports: Q2 GDP; EIA Weekly Ethanol Production/Energy Stocks; FOMC Interest Rate Decision

• This morning's weekly ethanol production report from the EIA for the week ending July 25th is expected to show average daily production in the week between 1.068-1.073 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 23.70-25.00 mil bbls.

• Canadian oilseed crush data for the month of June, released yesterday, showed canola crush in the month at 856.1 thousand tons, which is up 3% from the May figure and up more than 10% from the number seen last June. The crush resulted in the production of 364.6 thousand tons of oil and 507 thousand tons of meal. Data also showed soybeans crush in the month at 104.8 thousand tons, down nearly 34% from May but up some 23% from June last year.

• European wheat exports in the new marketing year continue to notably lag last year's pace, with weekly data this week showing sales as of July 27th at roughly 803k MTs, compares to 2.25 MMTs in the same period last year. The data remains incomplete due to ongoing technical issues. (We mention this every week with this data, but have little idea if or when a resolution is expected; the issues have been ongoing since the start of the 2023/24 marketing year, and are related to reporting failures primarily in France, Italy, Bulgaria, and Ireland.)

• Similarly, Ukraine's grain exports so far in the season that began July 1 have totaled just roughly 1.3 MMTs, which is barely a third of the 3.43 MMTs seen through the same period last year. Wheat exports at 487k MTs are down 66%, corn exports at 613k MTs are down 59%, and barely exports at just 191 tons are down 60%.

• Staying in Ukraine, newswires and social media accounts are reporting that Ukraine's grain and sunflower crops could be at risk from a massive locust invasion which has already caused crop damage in some southern areas. Sources familiar say the pest invasion is like the result of a number of factors, namely the lack of birds in the region, which are the locust's primary predator, and also the inability to use aircraft to control the pests, both of which are results of the ongoing war.

• We touched on this in yesterday's afternoon commentary, but cash-connected sources have reported that Indian buyers reached an agreement in recent days with China on the purchase of a record 150,000 MTs of soybean oil as a result of price discrepancies due to China's ballooning supplies. China is typically an importer of soybeans and their products, but recently offered soybean oil at a discount to more common South American supplies, which led to the deal. Sources also say India could import even more Chinese oil in the months ahead if prices stay below those of competitors.

• At an industry conference in Melbourne on Wednesday, traders said they see Australia's wheat production in the current season coming in around 33 MMTs, which is up from a previous Ag Ministry estimate in June of 30.6 MMTs and compares to last year's production of around 34 MMTs. The traders cited good rains during the month of July as reason for the increases, adding that growing conditions had seen notable improvement over the last 6-8 weeks.

• We don't have a lot new on the China situation this morning on top of what was reported yesterday afternoon; sources from both sides have called the two day talks in Sweden productive, but there has been no extension of the current tariff truce that is set to expire on August 12th. It is unclear at this point what the next steps in the process are, with it being our assumption that President Trump will speak on the matter at some point in the coming days.

• Aside from any other trade-related news throughout the day on Wednesday, the equity world will otherwise have its attention on this afternoon's interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve; traders aren't expecting anything overly notable in the announcement, with rates almost assuredly staying unchanged for another month, but will again be paying attention to see whether rhetoric surrounding futures cuts the rest of the year has changed any from last month.

• Forecasts trended marginally wetter overnight for the western Corn Belt in the short term and also trended wetter in the southeast the back half of next week. The EU model now sees several pockets throughout KS/NE/MO/IA/IL that look to see rainfall in the 1-2" range the next few days, as opposed to the more general 0.5-1.5" that was advertised earlier in the week. For the southeast, our confidence in a forecast some 240 hours out is not high, but the models this morning are showing rainfall by the end of next week totaling upwards of 8+" in some parts of GA and SC.

• Beyond there, week two precip maps are in better agreement this morning, but still show notable differences on expected precip for the Dakotas and MN; the EU remains significantly wetter in these areas vs the GFS, but the two are in better agreement further to the east and through the eastern Midwest. Still no change on the expected dryness in the period for the southwest.

• A fairly sharp temperature gradient will exist through the Midwest today, as a slow-moving cold front is working its way through the area that will significantly drop daytime highs from recent days. Highs in the Dakotas/MN/NE today will reach the mid/upper 70's, while further to the south and east, highs in IL/IN/OH will remain in the mid/lower 90's for one more day. By Friday, heat will be largely confined to areas along the Gulf, with the whole of the Corn Belt expected to struggle to reach 80.