AM Comments July 29 2025
Good morning. Ag trade is once again in the red to start Tuesday, with the wheat markets leading and the corn and soybean markets following in what has been another low volume overnight trading session. Crop conditions yesterday afternoon showed an unexpected improvement in the soybean crop, but otherwise offered little to change the ongoing themes of record production prospects in another month or two. Regular Midwest rains and a cooling of temperatures by the end of this week has produced a near ideal finish to the month of July and has set the table for a timely rain or two in August to likely to be able to finish things off in some areas. The question now, as it has been really since the start of the month, is just how big is big and how much of that large supply has already been priced in. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 6-7 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down 20-30 cents/ton, and soybean oil is down around 10 points. Outside markets are mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 90 points, and the US$ index is up 30 points; the S&P500 is up 15 points and the NASDAQ is up 100 points.
Today's Reports: Monthly JOLTs Jobs Data; API Energy Stocks
- Yesterday afternoon's weekly crop progress update from the USDA showed a 1% decline in corn G/EX conditions last week; at the state level, the biggest Midwest declines were seen in KY (-3%), MN (-3%) and TN (-4%); CO was down 8% on the week and TX was down 7%, though part of these declines are likely seasonal. PA improved 10%, while ND, OH, and WI all saw 3% increases.
- Not a lot new of note on the progress side this week for corn; silking advanced 20% on the week to now 76%, which compares to 75% last year and 77% average, while 26% of the crop is in the dough stage, compared to 28% last year and 24% average.
- Soybean conditions in the week improved 2% in the G/EX category to 70%; at the state level, WI saw a 9% improvement on the week, while IL and ND were each up 5% and KS was up 4%. MN and TN each declined 4% on the week, while KY, MI, and NC all declined 3%. On the progress side for soybeans, 76% of the crop is blooming compared to 75% last year and 76% average, and 41% of the crop is setting pods compared to 42% both last year and on average.
- Winter wheat harvest advanced 7% on the week to 80% complete, while spring wheat harvest in the first reading of the year was seen at 1% complete. Spring wheat conditions decline 3% in the G/EX category to 49%. To view the full report from the USDA, please click here.
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Monday that trade negotiations with the US were in an "intense phase", adding that a completely tariff-free deal after the August 1 deadline was unlikely. Carney expressed optimism that an agreement could still be reached, but further emphasized that Canada would only sign a deal that protects its economic interests, even if that meant accepting some level of tariffs.
- Argentina's CIARA-CEC grain processing association said on Monday that soybean and soy product exports would likely resume once the government's newly announced tax plan went into affect, but offered no details on when they thought this might occur. Argentine soy exports have been at a near-standstill since July 1, when the tax rate was increased.
- Day one of trade talks in Stockholm between the US and China saw more than five hours of discussions between the two sides, with the main focus being on an extension of the current tariff truce according to sources familiar with the matter. They added the tone from the meeting was described as constructive, and that talks would resume this morning.
- President Trump continues to ramp up the pressure on Russia to find a way to end the war in Ukraine, this time telling reporters while abroad in Scotland that he would be shortening his deadline for new sanctions on Russian oil exports to "10 or 12" days. Trump has previously given Russian President Putin deadlines for action on the war that come and go with little consequence, making it unclear whether this new round of threats is likely to yield any differing results.
- The Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting is set to kickoff later today, and will run through tomorrow. Traders see little possibility that interest rates are changed following the meeting's conclusion tomorrow afternoon, but as has been the case the last couple meetings, will still be tuned into the event to see if policymakers have any differing opinions on future rate decisions for the rest of the year amid President Trump's continued beratements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
- Weather forecasts this morning are marginally wetter in the northwestern part of the Corn Belt than was seen yesterday, but are otherwise little changed and continue to offer additional rain and thunderstorm chances to an area from NE/SD through IA and into northern IL generally speaking. Lighter rains will be seen along the Gulf Coast and further into the southeast, though there will be a dry pocket in a small area of the mid-south. Exact precip amounts/locations will be difficult to forecast, but the EU model this morning shows the best chance at accumulation in east-central IA.
- The Dakotas and MN will begin seeing cooler air through the day today, while the bulk of the Corn Belt and eastern Midwest sees one or two more days of above average warmth before the cool air also makes its way to these areas. Models then remain in good agreement on this cool air lingering for 10 days or so, before more average temps are seen returning for most by August 8th. There is disagreement in the extended period, which will need monitored into next week.
- Extended range precip maps are in better agreement this morning across the southeast and the eastern US, but continue to see notable differences in their precip outlooks for the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies; the EU model is still significantly wetter in these areas than the GFS is, and the CPC is more in line with the wetter EU model.