Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $3.93 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.14, down 5 cents
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -20 3/4, down 3/4 cent; new contract low at -20 3/4

? Market Headlines:

• The daily export wire remained active again this morning, with private exporters announcing 225,000 MTs of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2025/26 marketing year.

• Private exporters also announced 229,000 MTs of corn for delivery to unknown destinations; of the total 35,000 MTs is for delivery during the 2024/25 marketing year, and 194,000 MTs is for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.

• This morning's weekly export inspections report for the week ending July 24th showed corn inspections at 1.522 MMTs, which was above the upper end of trade expectations and up nearly 55% from the week prior. Cumulative marketing year inspections now stand at 60.341 MMTs, which is up 29% from last year.

• Private Brazilian consultancy AgRural said on Monday in a weekly update that the country's safrinha corn harvest had reached 68% complete as of Thursday the 24th, which is up 13% from the week prior but still well behind last year's pace of 91% through the same week.

• Also out of South America, Argentine President Javier Milei announced over the weekend that corn export taxes would be permanently lowered from 12% to 9.5%, which is a positive for farmers. It is unclear exactly when the new tax level is set to take effect.

Summary:

Corn futures continued their downward price move on Monday with old crop futures dropping right back near the contract lows made earlier this month as the bull camp just doesn't have anything to grab ahold of. The trade deal with Europe is a good thing on the margin, but like other deals announced recently, it fell short of including actual ag purchase requirements similar to the Phase One deal with China during Trump's first trade war. Without these specific requirements, the deals do little to alleviate ballooning world stocks, which have been one of the main sources of market pressure largely since the US crop was planted last spring.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• August Soybeans (SQ): $9.88 3/4, down 10 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.11 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents
• August Soybean Meal (MQ): $264.90, down $2.90/ton
• August Soybean Oil (LQ): 56.55, down 0.6 cents/lb
• August/November Spread (SQ/SX): -22 3/4, down 1/2 cent; new contract low at -24 1/2

? Market Headlines:

• Nothing new on the daily sales wire this morning, but weekly export inspections for the week ending July 27th totaled 410k MTs, which was at the upper end of trade expectations and up 9% from last week. Cumulative marketing year inspections have reached 47.203 MMTs, which is up 10% from last year.

• Argentine President Javier Milei announced the soybean export tax would be permanently lowered from 33% to 26%, while the tax on soy products would be lowered from 31% to 24.5%.

Summary:

Soybeans also continued to work lower to start the new week on Monday, with old crop futures trading to their lowest level in nearly four months and challenging the low made at the beginning of April earlier this year. With US and Chinese officials continuing talks on trade today and tomorrow, we wouldn't be overly surprised to see a pop at some point this week on headlines regarding some sort of progress, though we continue to see it unlikely that anything materially changes without talks between President Trump and President Xi. Otherwise, it is well known that August weather is the most critical in determining soybean yields and this will continue to be the other dominating factor in the short term.

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.38 1/2, up 1/4 cent
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.58 3/4, up 1/2 cent
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -20 1/4, down 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Weekly export inspection data this morning for the week ending July 24th showed wheat inspections in the week at 289k MTs, which was below the lower end of trade expectations and down more than 60% from the week prior. Cumulative marketing year inspections have now reached 3.310 MMTs, which is up 6% from last year.

• Argentina's wheat export tax is set to stay at the current 9.5% level, which is down from the previous 12% level. Wheat and barely exports were still seeing temporarily reduced tax levels from a previous ruling, while corn and soybean taxes had already gone back up.

Summary:

Wheat futures had the best day of the group at the CBOT today, but would be more accurately defined as "not down" than they would be "up". President Trump stepped up rhetoric towards President Putin again today, saying he was "not happy" with the Russian President over continued failures to bring about any sort of end to the fighting in Ukraine, though we're not sure that this had much if anything to do with the day's price action. The trade has seemingly become disinterested with Black Sea related headlines, but it remains our opinion that a total end to the war (which seems unlikely today) would still be bearish global wheat values.

In Other News

• Livestock markets started Monday mixed/mostly higher:
• August live cattle: $227.87, up $1.40; new contract high at $228.85
• August feeder cattle: $333.52, up $2.15
• August lean hogs: $108.52, down 17 cents

• Outside markets were mixed/higher to start the new week this week:
• Crude oil futures: up $1.60-1.70/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 100 points, the S&P500 index is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 40 points; new contract highs again today for the S&P and the NASDAQ
• US $ Index: up 100 points

• There have been little updates available regarding the first day of talks between trade delegations from the US and China that took place throughout the day today, with the talks expected to be ongoing tomorrow. The most likely outcome continues to be another delay in the implementation of duties, with both sides kicking the can further down the road to a potential meeting between Trump and Xi in October/November.

• Trump told reporters regarding the trade announcement with Europe that "this is the biggest deal ever made", though details on the landmark agreement remain mostly scarce. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, when asked about the 15% tariff rate, said it was, "the best we could get."

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Mid-day weather forecasts trended moderately wetter through the northwestern Corn Belt on Monday, and continue to offer near-daily chances of thunderstorm activity to the area the rest of this week. Heaviest amounts look to be in the 3" ballpark, with the GFS run showing a more general 0.5-1.5" otherwise.

• As has been well advertised now, temperatures will remain on the warm side for another day or two this week, before cooler air from the north begins working its way and east south, significantly dropping daytime highs by the end of the week. For example, North Platte, NE sees a high temperature today of 102 degrees F, but the high on Friday is just 76 degrees F.

? Extended Forecast:

• This cooler air that shows up the middle/end of this week is then expected to linger through the Midwest into next week as well, though 10-15 day outlooks then show a return to more average temps by the second week in August. Cooler air does stay present in a small pocket further west, with the models in disagreement on exactly where this cooler air will stay focused.

• There also continues to be poor agreement on the precip side in the extended forecast, as the GFS has continued to stay wetter in the southeast and up the East Coast, while the EU's forecast for the period has better rain chances in the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains, though sees the southeastern US drier.