Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $3.99 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; inside day lower
• December Corn (CZ): $4.19, down 1 3/4 cents; inside day lower
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -19 1/2, down 1/2 cent
• For the week: CU was down 9 cents; CZ was down 8 3/4 cents

? Market Headlines:

• Private exporters this morning reported daily sales flashes of 102,870 MTs of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2025/26 marketing year. Exporters also reported sales of 140,000 MTs of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2025/26 marketing year.

Summary:

What has been a quiet week in the corn market otherwise got even quieter on Friday, as both old and new crop contracts couldn't even muster a five cent trading range throughout the session. Aside from daily export sales flashes, there wasn't anything new today from a news standpoint. The yield debate will remain ongoing into next week, but will potentially take a bit of a back seat to the other macro trade-related headlines for a few days, with Trump's trade war back in focus.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• August Soybeans (SQ): $9.98 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.21, down 3 1/4 cents
• August Soybean Meal (MQ): $267.80, down $1.90/ton
• August Soybean Oil (LQ): 56.49, down 0.18 cents/lb
• August/November Spread (SQ/SX): -22 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents; new contract low at -22 3/4
• For the week: SQ was down 29 cents; SX was down 14 3/4 cents; MQ was down $6.20/ton; LQ was up 0.67 cents/lb

? Market Headlines:

• Along with the corn sales this morning, private exporters also announced daily sales flashes of 142,500 MTs of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2025/26 marketing year.

Summary:

Headline news was similarly absent the soybean market Friday, with all eyes on trade discussions between the US and China in Sweden next week. It is unclear at this point exactly what kind of progress is expected at the meetings between lower level representatives next week, but that the two sides are seemingly re-engaging is at least on the surface a good sign. That said, we aren't overly optimistic regarding next week, with it remaining the case that any actual deal will likely have to be the result of talks directly between Trump and President Xi, which don't look to occur for another couple months.

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.38 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.58 1/4, down 3 cents
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -20, down 1/4 cent
• For the week: WU was down 12 cents; WZ was down 8 3/4 cents

? Market Headlines:

• Scouts from the US Wheat Quality Council, following a three day crop tour this week, estimated hard red spring wheat yields in the state of North Dakota at 49.0 bu/acre, which compares to 54.5 last year and the group's five-year average of 44.6.

• Members from the tour said favorable rains had boosted yields across the state this summer, but drought in some northern regions likely dragged down the state average. Said one scout, "The whole central part of the state is as good as I've ever seen."

Summary:

Crop tour results from the North Dakota spring wheat crop were largely as expected, and offered yield potential that was solid but maybe not quite as good as last year's record breaking season. Overall though, pricing in the short term likely remains more a product of Russian/European prices and fund activity more so than spring wheat crop prospects in the US.

In Other News

• Livestock markets ended the week on a higher note:
• August live cattle: $226.47, up 67 cents; inside day higher
• August feeder cattle: $331.37, up $2.47
• August lean hogs: $108.70, up 50 cents

• President Trump, in a post on Truth Social, applauded Australia after a Thursday announcement that they would be relaxing import restrictions on US beef.
• Trump said Australia was planning to take US beef "for the first time", but analysts argue that exports likely wouldn't significantly increase in the short term due to Australia already being a major producer with lower prices.

• Outside markets have been mixed to wrap up the week:
• Crude oil futures: down 60-90 cents/bbl; outside day lower
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is up 200 points, the S&P500 index is up 30 points, and the NASDAQ is up 60 points; new contract highs again today for the S&P and the NASDAQ
• US $ Index: up 30 points

• In regards to a potential trade deal with the EU, Trump said on Friday there was a "50-50 chance" that such an outcome would occur. The comments come a day after the European Commission said that such a deal was within reach, though seem to offer little new on the situation than wasn't known previously ahead of Trump's Friday deadline.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Rainfall through the weekend looks to be focused on the north-central US, as a stalled frontal boundary continues to provide thunderstorm activity to parts of IA/MO/IL/IN/OH. The 12Z GFS run shows a half inch to an inch of accumulation for the are generally speaking, though rains have already been falling in some of these areas throughout the day today.

• Weekend temperatures will be on the warmer than average side for most, before cooler air works back into the Midwest the middle of next week. By the end of next week, there is good model agreement on well below average temps for most all of the Corn Belt, which will help to limit crop stress.

? Extended Forecast:

• Week two precip maps this afternoon were mostly like the overnight runs, and continue to offer above average precip chances through most of the eastern and southeastern US through the first week of August. The west, meanwhile, has been trending wetter this week, and now sees mostly average to slightly below average precip chances now in the period to compared to well below average chances at the beginning of this week.

• Still nothing new on the temperature front into the first week of August, as models continue to be in good agreement on cooler air staying around the eastern US, while the western half of the country stays warm.